Discussion
Between 2022-26 the Conservatives collapsed after numerous defections. The principal beneficiaries were the HRA Administration. Three Conservatives joined Reform UK at the end of the period.
Reform could matter in 2026. The Green party existed in 2022 but was disregarded. That changed after their recent parliamentary victory. They aren’t as well organised as Reform but might do well and will certainly split the vote.
Electors can choose from a large number of candidates and parties. For example, HRA isn’t a single party, it’s an umbrella organisation.1 There are Conservatives, Greens, Labour, Independent RAs, and Reform standing as political parties. There are 302 candidates for 55 seats.
Low turnouts make elections a lottery. Voting is normally based on name recognition, or the first initial of the surname, or scattergun, or selection of a party. Gooshays in 2022 had a turnout of 23.46%.2 Winning literally depended on marginal decisions. In 2026 Gooshays has 20 candidates for three seats.
Conclusion
Havering traditionally has Minority Administrations. It’s a certainty to happen once more in 2026. But….Even certainties lose.
Addendum: Wards, sitting councillors and additional candidates
Beam Park (2 ward councillors) ~ Two Labour councillors plus 9 (more candidates)
Cranham (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14
Elm Park (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14
Emerson Park (2) ~ 11 (no councillors standing)
Gooshays (3) ~ One Labour; One HRA councillor plus 18
Hacton (2) ~ One HRA councillor plus 10
Harold Wood (3) ~ Three East Havering RA councillors plus 15
Havering-Atte-Bower (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 16
Heaton (3) ~ Two Labour councilors plus 14
Hylands and Harrow Lodge (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 14
Marshalls and Rise Park (3) ~ Two HRA; One Reform councillor plus 13
Mawneys (3) ~ Three Conservative councillors plus 13
Rainham and Wennington (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 15
Rush Green and Crowlands (3) ~ Two Conservatives plus 14
South Hornchurch (2) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 10
Squirrels Heath (3) ~ One Conservative; One Reform councillor plus 15
St Albans (2) ~ One Conservative; One Labour councillor plus 9
St Andrews (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 15
St Edwards (3) ~ 16 (No councillors standing)
Upminster (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14
Three councillors are standing for wards that they didn’t represent 2022-6
Notes
1 Two cabinet members voted against HRA policy without resigning for example.
2 Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | London Borough of Havering
Politics in Havering 
there was a By election in Upminster 2023 but the HRA candidate who won isn’t standing
the postal votes show how parties can organise before hand that’ll give a idea to what group’s choice to be in different politics n parties have got their new parties organising skills
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there was a By election in Upminster 2023 but the HRA candidate who won isn’t standing
the postal votes show how parties can organise before hand that’ll give a idea to what group’s choice to be in different politics n parties have got their new parties organising skills
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Thank you for your comment
What’s very interesting is that Keith Prince is standing in Gooshays. They must have very high hopes.
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Isn’t it the other way round? Harold Hill was the centre of the UKIP success of 2014 and where the BNP won a seat in 2006. Those wards seem much more likely to fall to the Faragists than Squirrels Heath.
Thank you, as always for the analysis. That’s just over half of the current council standing for another term. I wonder how that compares with other cycles and boroughs? Being a Havering councillor can’t be much fun these days.
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You’re quite right. Farage mentality politics will suit Harold Hill ~ simple reductionist politics.
Local government has been killed. Councillors can’t implement the fine tuning that they used to be able to do. Being a *middle-manager* for faceless Whitehall Mandarins isn’t democracy. But when you do get a powerful local politician (like Khan) they rally the media against them and call them extremists. ULEZ was courageous and brilliant and the credit for Khan from central government??
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