Discussion

Between 2022-26 the Conservatives collapsed after numerous defections. The principal beneficiaries were the HRA Administration. Three Conservatives joined Reform UK at the end of the period.

Reform could matter in 2026. The Green party existed in 2022 but was disregarded. That changed after their recent parliamentary victory. They aren’t as well organised as Reform but might do well and will certainly split the vote.

Electors can choose from a large number of candidates and parties. For example, HRA isn’t a single party, it’s an umbrella organisation.¹ There are Conservatives, Greens, Labour, Independent RAs, and Reform standing as political parties. There are 302 candidates for 55 seats.

Low turnouts make elections a lottery. Voting is normally based on name recognition, or the first initial of the surname, or scattergun, or selection of a party. Gooshays in 2022 had a turnout of 23.46%.² Winning literally depended on marginal decisions. In 2026 Gooshays has 20 candidates for three seats.

Conclusion

Havering traditionally has Minority Administrations. It’s a certainty to happen once more in 2026. But….Even certainties lose.

Addendum: Wards, sitting councillors and additional candidates

Beam Park (2 ward councillors) ~ Two Labour councillors plus 9 (more candidates)

Cranham (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14

Elm Park (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14

Emerson Park (2) ~ 11 (no councillors standing)

Gooshays (3) ~ One Labour; One HRA councillor plus 18

Hacton (2) ~ One HRA councillor plus 10

Harold Wood (3) ~ Three East Havering RA councillors plus 15

Havering-Atte-Bower (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 16

Heaton (3) ~ Two Labour councilors plus 14

Hylands and Harrow Lodge (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 14

Marshalls and Rise Park (3) ~ Two HRA; One Reform councillor plus 13

Mawneys (3) ~ Three Conservative councillors plus 13

Rainham and Wennington (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 15

Rush Green and Crowlands (3) ~ Two Conservatives plus 14

South Hornchurch (2) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 10

Squirrels Heath (3) ~ One Conservative; One Reform councillor plus 15

St Albans (2) ~ One Conservative; One Labour councillor plus 9

St Andrews (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 15

St Edwards (3) ~ 16 (No councillors standing)

Upminster (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14

Three councillors are standing for wards that they didn’t represent 2022-6

Notes

1 Two cabinet members voted against HRA policy without resigning for example.

2 Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | London Borough of Havering