Tag: Havering Council

Havering’s Revolution ~ Is Keith Prince Superman?

For Havering’s Reform party to succeed, Keith Prince needs to be ‘Superman’. Havering is bankrupt. It faces financial pressures which are horrifying. Keith will have to the square the circle that is Reform’s desire for radical change and the pressures preventing change. Nonetheless:

Keith’s ‘Revolution’ gives him (1) opportunities as well as (2) headaches

(1) Revolutions demand Radical change, and

(2) Central government’s iron fist over local finance.

Opportunities

What do Reform councillors “Really, really want?1 Keith knows Farage’s motormouth slogans are nonsense. Havering can’t ‘Stop the Boats”.  Keith can’t magic Havering out of London to fulfil the ludicrous ‘Hexit’ policy. And, Havering’s Reform councillors can’t vote Starmer out of Downing Street.

Keith must keep his 36 new councillors on board. He must keep thousands of Reform voters on board. What is he going to do? Keith is a class act. He’s been a councillor since 1990. He’s also a senior member of the GLA. This means he knows Mayor Khan very well and politics is the art of adroit compromises. Keith and Mayor Khan might not love each other but they can cooperate. Always assuming it works for all concerned.

Doing what is doable is the centrepiece of political agendas. Keith needs cheap, flashy policies that hit the button. Reform voters like flags. Why not have a flag budget for public buildings like libraries? This would be mocked but would work if the book budget was significantly increased. £50,000 should be enough. Reform vigorously opposed library closures and this would be a statement of difference.

The kiss of electoral death is,

‘Everything is different but nothing has changed.’

Headaches

Havering is bankrupt. HRA borrowed £100m+ to ‘Balance’ the books. That is as stupid as it sounds. But if the government don’t forgive the debt, the taxi meter is clicking along at 6% p.a., which is compounded. This could destroy Keith’s ambitions for a Reform revolution.

The intractable problem is the budget for Adult and Children’s Services. Both are demand led, making for budget instability. Someone is going to have to be very clever to cope with this. And this takes us to the principal headache for Keith.

Inexperienced councillors! Keith’s biggest fear is that his new team is ‘captured’ by officers who impose (ever so nicely) their agenda. His experience gives him a fighting chance of being able to spot talent. People willing to work hard, command detail and do politics.

The Revolution begins….

Note

1 really really want lyrics – Search Amazingly the lyrics of this song reveal Keith’s problem.

Addendum: Turnout increased in every single ward

• Beam Park – 32.63% (2022: 30.8%)

• Cranham – 54.49% (40.83%) (HRA win)

• Elm Park – 47.56% (35.51%)

• Emerson Park – 52.7% (41.11%)

• Gooshays – 35.2% (23.46%)

• Hacton – 51.23% (41.2%)

• Harold Wood – 48.19% (35.6%)

• Havering-atte-Bower – 42.14% (29.16%)

• Heaton – 32.2% (lowest – Reform win) (23.79%)

• Hylands & Harrow Lodge – 50.81% (37.83%)

• Marshalls and Rise Park – 51.8% (41.13)

• Mawneys – 45.03% (33.56)

• Rainham & Wennington – 44.97% (35.12%)

• Rush Green – 39.95% (32.84%)

• South Hornchurch – 42.6% (31.8%)

• Squirrels Heath – 49.78% (38.54%)

• St Alban’s – 43.95% (36.84%)

• St Andrew’s – 50.52% (38.98%)

• St Edward’s – 42.32% (32.87)

• Upminster – 56% (highest – HRA win) (42.3%)

Source Local Election 2026 Results | London Borough of Havering and Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | London Borough of Havering

Havering’s Councillors make a difference: Podcast

Havering councillors make a difference – YouTube

HRA say that they are non-political but it is impossible to run a council without making political choices. This podcast discusses the 30 minute free period for Hornchurch and Upminster. It also looks at the previous Conservative Administration, 2018-22, and their decisions.

The podcast is 3 minutes long

Havering’s Council Election, May 7th 2026

Discussion

Between 2022-26 the Conservatives collapsed after numerous defections. The principal beneficiaries were the HRA Administration. Three Conservatives joined Reform UK at the end of the period.

Reform could matter in 2026. The Green party existed in 2022 but was disregarded. That changed after their recent parliamentary victory. They aren’t as well organised as Reform but might do well and will certainly split the vote.

Electors can choose from a large number of candidates and parties. For example, HRA isn’t a single party, it’s an umbrella organisation.1 There are Conservatives, Greens, Labour, Independent RAs, and Reform standing as political parties. There are 302 candidates for 55 seats.

Low turnouts make elections a lottery. Voting is normally based on name recognition, or the first initial of the surname, or scattergun, or selection of a party. Gooshays in 2022 had a turnout of 23.46%.2 Winning literally depended on marginal decisions. In 2026 Gooshays has 20 candidates for three seats.

Conclusion

Havering traditionally has Minority Administrations. It’s a certainty to happen once more in 2026. But….Even certainties lose.

Addendum: Wards, sitting councillors and additional candidates

Beam Park (2 ward councillors) ~ Two Labour councillors plus 9 (more candidates)

Cranham (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14

Elm Park (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14

Emerson Park (2) ~ 11 (no councillors standing)

Gooshays (3) ~ One Labour; One HRA councillor plus 18

Hacton (2) ~ One HRA councillor plus 10

Harold Wood (3) ~ Three East Havering RA councillors plus 15

Havering-Atte-Bower (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 16

Heaton (3) ~ Two Labour councilors plus 14

Hylands and Harrow Lodge (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 14

Marshalls and Rise Park (3) ~ Two HRA; One Reform councillor plus 13

Mawneys (3) ~ Three Conservative councillors plus 13

Rainham and Wennington (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 15

Rush Green and Crowlands (3) ~ Two Conservatives plus 14

South Hornchurch (2) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 10

Squirrels Heath (3) ~ One Conservative; One Reform councillor plus 15

St Albans (2) ~ One Conservative; One Labour councillor plus 9

St Andrews (3) ~ One HRA councillor plus 15

St Edwards (3) ~ 16 (No councillors standing)

Upminster (3) ~ Two HRA councillors plus 14

Three councillors are standing for wards that they didn’t represent 2022-6

Notes

1 Two cabinet members voted against HRA policy without resigning for example.

2 Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | London Borough of Havering

Havering Council Meeting: Budget Setting, 4th March 2026

There is a legal requirement that Councils have a balanced budget. This is impossible because Havering is bankrupt. Its statutory commitments can’t be funded from revenue. The strategy is to add to debts to pay revenue commitments. This is fiscal insanity as the interest can’t be paid.

Enter Chris Wilkins, Cabinet Member for Finance (13 minutes).1,2 He declared the budget will be legally balanced because…..he’d organised more debt. The debt mountain will be £229m by 2029. Chris gives an excellent impression of being a nodding donkey. He doesn’t seem to understand what he‘s reading. A debt of £229m means interest payments will be 30% of the budget by 2029. Chris didn’t mention interest charges during his 13 minutes speech. Philip Ruck (1:31) noticed and was outraged at the sheer folly of it. Annual (unpaid) interest payments would be about £17m and would be added to the capital. Credit card maxxed out!

Keith Darvill (25) introduced the Labour amendment3 self-consciously. He was ultra-defensive and apologetic – as if he was speaking out of turn.

Michael White (36) gave a masterful speech. He demonstrated his command of the subject and critiqued HRA’s four years in a probing, forensic way. The principal highlight was his remarks about the GLA budget, which amounts to nearly 25% of the total Council Tax bill. He made play about the lack of a medium-term plan for the dire budget pressures. He worried about the impact of the Israel-USA-Iran war on interest rates. Michael made obvious remarks about relying on loans for revenue expenditure. Thus, he successfully trashed Chris’s blissful optimism.

Martin Goode (53) denounced the reliance on long-term debt to fund current expenditure. He demanded that the Council throw in the towel and face facts. He wants Government Commissioners to take over the Council. Gillian Ford (1:00) said only the section 151 officer could ask for Government assistance like this. That ought not be a problem as she had previously stated HRA was following an unsustainable strategy.

Keith Prince (1:01) has a curious flippant style, which mostly falls flat. He worried about debt and the borough’s future Council Taxpayers. Interestingly he claimed the borough’s woes were turbo-charged by the lack of detailed scrutiny. This is theoretically likely but Havering’s culture of absenteeism4 by councillors means more scrutiny is unlikely. Unlikely because it involves doing homework and turning up.

Ray Morgon (1:28) indulged in chit-chat. Judith Holt (1:34) pointed out special skills were needed to read a budget book 1070 pages long. Nisha Patel (1:40) did a good review of Michael’s speech reinforcing some points. Gillian Ford (1:42) had a breathless shopping list of achievements. The concept ‘strategy’ appeared many times. Brian Eagling (1:45) said that football pitches had seen fees rise yet again and that sport should be promoted. Oscar Ford (1:48) used fluent management speech. This didn’t always coincide with reality. Barry Mugglestone (1:51) was combative, which livened the meeting up. He and Keith Prince exchanged pleasantries about the Freedom Pass. They were both right, which made it more entertaining.

Jane Keane (1:56) did a Hollywood Oscar’type speech praising the Council’s staff. David Taylor (1:58) is a class act who will be badly missed. His nemesis, Andrew Rosindell, was given a quick going over. Andrew has consistently voted for the bankruptcy of Havering. Luckily he was in the chamber to enjoy David’s speech. James Glass (2:01) was demob crazy and is a loss. What he lacks in accuracy he makes up for with boyish enthusiasm.

Best speech: Michael White

Most sincere speech: Brian Eagling

Notes

1 Annotator Player All times relate to this webcast

2 Group spokesmen had 20 minutes for budget speeches. Astonishingly, Wilkins only used 13 minutes.

3 This Council calls on the Administration to introduce and promote an SME Support Package, initially, funding such a proposal from unspent UKSPF (and/or other unspent grants) seeking partnership for such a support package with organisations such as the Chamber of Commerce and the Adult College. (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 04/03/2026 19:30 p1073

4 Havering Councillors and Their Attendance – Politics in Havering

Havering Councillors and Their Attendance

Havering’s councillors collectively have a poor attendance record for council meetings.1 In the six months to the 14th February 2026, 55 councillors were scheduled for 374 meetings. They attended 320, which is a 14.5% absenteeism rate. The British absenteeism rate is 4.1%. A 14.5% absenteeism rate is a giant Red Flag for any employer. Obviously there are wild variations between councillors. Two councillors had severe illnesses and were given leave of absence by the council.

However

Most councillors didn’t have severe illnesses but still had appalling attendance records. Osman Dervish attended one meeting out of the seven. Carol Smith attended one of her three meetings. Damian White attended one meeting out of four. These councillors collectively attended three meetings in six months and were paid £200 per week each. This is £15,600 for nothing. It’s shameful.

However

At the other end of the scale there are dedicated councillors. There were 14 councillors who had 10+ meetings scheduled. Six had perfect attendance records. The Magnificent Six: Councillors McGeary, Morgon, Christine Smith, Summers, Taylor and Whitney.

So what?

Six years ago, Politics in Havering said Havering has too many councillors2 and current attendance records backs that up. There are piles of dead wood in the council chamber who need clearing away. Ten councillors were scheduled for three meetings in six months. If they weren’t there would anyone notice? They are make-weights at best.

On previous occasions when this point has been made, outraged councillors have contacted Politics in Havering denouncing the lack understanding. Claims to be hard-working ward councillors are made but can’t be verified. All that can be verified is attendance at council meetings.

And the attendance statistics are grim.

Addendum

Keith Prince, GLA member, attended 23 meetings from a possible 28 in the last six months.3 This is 82%. Three GLA members have 100% attendance records.

Notes

1 Councillors attendance summary, 22 August 2025 – 14 February 2026 | London Borough of Havering See also Sickness absence soars to nearly two weeks per head in 2025 for national figures and analysis

2 Does Havering have too many councillors? – Politics in Havering

3 Assembly Members attendance summary, 22 August 2025 – 14 February 2026 | London City Hall

Havering’s Council Meeting, 21st January 2026 (part one)

Question Time (QT)

Councillors instructed ChatGPT to ask Family Friendly questions.

Sounds Familiar?

Q2 Jane Keane1 asked about CCTV. Barry Mugglestone said it defeated crime.

Q3 Darren Wise asked about parking tickets. Barry said they were wonderful.

Q5 Judith Holt asked about parking fees in Hornchurch. Barry is working hard to please everyone.

Q6 Trevor McKeever asked about speeding. Barry said enforcement is for the police.

Q7 Martin Goode asked about potholes. They are being repaired quickly and effectively Barry said, without a blush.

Q8 Judith Holt asked about Visitor Parking Permits. Barry said the system worked beautifully.

Q10 Christine Vickery asked about Gallows Corner. Barry said he’d do whatever she wanted but she might regret what she wished for.

Q14 Viddy Persaud asked about traffic monitoring. Barry said she could have whatever she wanted. But she’d forgotten what she’d asked for.

Q15 Nisha Patel asked about parking enforcement. Barry worried about elderly people putting a ‘O’ in the machine instead of a Zero. But cheerfully said he couldn’t do anything about it.

Barry sat down for the 20th time looking tired and happy.

Killer Questions

A killer question is one where every answer is wrong. These are perfect for pre-election QTs because answers can be publicised.

Q1 Dilip Patel asked about asylum seeker accommodation. This is a toxic question. Natasha Summers said she’d rejected the government’s request for accommodation. Dilip looked disappointed.

Q4 Keith Prince asked about unauthorised gypsy/traveller sites. Ray Morgon said officers were like bloodhounds seeking them out and were closing them with alacrity. Keith mocked this. He quoted the Daily Mail as evidence that Havering is overwhelmed with unauthorised sites. Ray said he didn’t read the Daily Mail.

Q11 Keith Darvill asked about housing allocations. Natasha Summers said they were on track. Keith said two years delay was unacceptable. Natasha said it was a software problem, and everyone was convinced.

Q13 David Taylor asked about temporary housing on the Waterloo Estate. Graham Williamson waffled. And that’s a multi-million pound scandal buried. A housing estate has been demolished and replaced by 18 temporary homes for the foreseeable future. Foreseeable means years, by the way.

Conclusion

The administration is lucky no-one knows how to use a killer question.

Note

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 21/01/2026 19:30 QT times relate to this webcast

Havering’s Silent Political Revolution, 2022-25

The Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) umbrella group was formed for the 2022 election. They had dramatic success and the Conservatives were ousted. An HRA-Labour coalition took their place.1

The dodging and diving began immediately.

Within weeks, Rainham’s three Conservative councillors joined HRA. This set the scene for three years of shameless anti-democratic opportunism. Seven more councillors have ratted on the electorate, without troubling the electorate. Amazingly, an especially flaky councillor has done it twice.

Sarah Edwards, Jacqueline McArdle and Susan Ospreay

Rainham ward: From Conservative to HRA. And Jacqueline McArdle: From HRA to Conservative when she changed her mind again.

Philip Ruck and John Tyler

Cranham ward: From HRA to Cranham Independent ~ John was an associate HRA member but Philip definitely did defect.

Paul McGeary

Gooshays ward: From Labour to HRA. This was spectacular. 1) He smashed the coalition and 2) he, importantly for him, kept his £25,000 pa cabinet position. He’s unlikely to keep his seat in 2026.

John Crowder

Havering-Atte-Bower ward: From Conservative to HRA

Phillippa Crowder and Robby Misir

Marshalls and Rise Park ward: From Conservative to HRA

Keith Prince

Squirrels Heath ward: From Conservative to Reform. This is notable as Keith is one of the most senior politicians in Havering.

And a special mention for,

Damian White

Damian hasn’t defected. He’s sulked since losing the Conservative leadership toKeith Prince. Damian has had very poor attendance for three years.2

Conclusion

Eleven potential by-elections haven’t happened. By-elections are not obligatory. It is, however, undemocratic to change parties and deny voters the chance to approve or not. Most defections are ‘froth’ without political significance.

Keith’s defection matters because he believes HRA’s domination is ending. He also thinks the Conservatives will become a rump, like the Labour party. Keith’s defection is a significant ‘straw in the wind’.

Havering’s bizarre politics will continue in 2026.

Addendum

As predicted 2026 saw more movement. This time is was Andrew Rosindell MP who defected to Reform on the 18th January. Political geeks can hardly wait for the May 2026 local elections.

Notes

1 5 May 2022 Local Election Results in Havering

2 Your Councillors | London Borough of Havering This is correct as of 9th November 2025. For attendance for the last six months see Councillors attendance summary, 18 May 2025 – 10 November 2025 | London Borough of Havering

Havering’s Air Quality and the Launders Lane Scandal (part one)

This Scrutiny Committee did a very good job.1 Stakeholders were present from the community, alongside senior officers of organisations involved in air quality and the Launders Lane scandal. All the participants made contributions, which were very interesting and informative.

The Fire Brigade

The Borough Commander said (57minutes) the Launders Lane scandal dominates his work. He’s spent a hundred hours strategising, creating a safe working environment and on-site direction. Launders Lane is unique. Fire-fighters can’t access the site because it’s unstable. The surface of the land conceals cavernous holes. The holes, and toxic air, are a dangerous working environment for fire fighters.

Public Health

The borough Director was chilling (11) about air pollution.2

‘The science is now overwhelming; air pollution is a major driver of disease across the life course – from low birth weight and childhood asthma to heart attacks and dementia. It must be recognised and treated as a public health issue.3

The Director said, 5.7% of deaths in Havering were air pollution related (1:24). It’s impossible to directly attribute deaths to the Launders Lane fires because of Havering’s poor air quality.4 Air pollution is invisible except when spewing out of land accompanied by fire. The Director was saying, in effect, Launders Lane draws attention to Havering’s permanent air pollution. Astonishingly, he said (1:46) the air pollution adjacent to Romford bus depot was worse than that of Launders Lane. As a consequence, he couldn’t recommend specific health warnings other than boroughwide.

Community Representatives

Rainham Against Pollution (45) Their representative felt the only way to deal with Launders Lane was to flatten the land. There were comments on the grim outcomes for residents of living with constant fires and being ‘prisoners’ in their homes during the summer months.

Friends of the Earth (51) Their representative pointed out that dumping toxic materials which led to fires wasn’t unique. Land had been successfully remediated and lessons were there to be learned.

Clear the Air in Havering (54) Their representative spoke evocatively about the health impacts of polluted air. The health crisis has been created by poor decision-making and a lack of urgency.

Conclusion

The ultra-late decision by HRA to declare Launders Lane ‘contaminated’ looked suspiciously timed to stifle debate. It failed. Part Two discusses the councillors’ debate, which was probing and forensic.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee, 21/10/2025 19:00 for the webcast see Annotator Player All times relate to this (57 minutes becomes 57)

2 Health matters: air pollution – GOV.UK This is a national study For Havering the government has produced a comprehensive study How health has changed in your area – Office for National Statistics Air pollution worsened between 2015 and 2021 and is about 10% above the national average

3 Air pollution linked to 30,000 UK deaths in 2025 and costs the economy and NHS billions, warns Royal College of Physicians | RCP

4 London’s ULEZ cut air pollution — high vehicle compliance left little room for post-expansion gains – University of Birmingham This paper is about London in general. However, see Havering’s ULEZ Data (davidtaylor.online) Here there is evidence that Havering’s air pollution has been reduced by ULEZ see also Havering, ULEZ and Public Health – Politics in Havering

Havering’s Council Tax and the USA’s Alternative

Council tax reflects property values in the 1990s. The promised five yearly value reviews never happened because of political cowardice.

Property tax is reviewed annually in the USA, “…The amount of tax is determined annually based on market value of each property on a particular date.”1 New Jersey has the highest rate at 1.89% and the lowest is Louisiana’s 0.18%.2 21 states are above 1% and then the range is between Louisiana and Florida’s 0.97%.

So what?

The benchmark used for this blog is Maryland, whose tax rate is 0.87%. They are at the USA’s mid-point property tax rate. Havering’s average house price is £451,000.3 Using Maryland’s 0.87%, the council tax would be £3,923.70 for an average house, instead of Band D’s £2,313.4,5

Detached houses in Emerson Park average £1,125,079. Their effective council tax is 0.41% or less.5 In Havering, high value houses are under-taxed under the American property tax system.

Council tax is a failed property tax, which is political dynamite. Havering’s Band H houses would have a council tax increase from £5,161 to £9,788 if Maryland’s rate was used.6 Havering’s financial woes are 30+ years old. The financial crisis was created by Conservatives and maintained by cowardly successive governments.

Council tax is a sick joke benefitting the rich.

Addendum: Louisiana’s 0.18% property tax

Louisiana is *Third World* in many ways. Life expectancy is 72 years7 and literacy is 72.9%.8 If Louisiana was a country it would be failed state. It is an example of low tax levels destroying society. (A £3m house in Havering has Louisiana levels of property tax rate as a percentage.)

Notes

1 Property tax in the United States – Wikipedia

2 Property Tax Rates By State 2025 – Tax-Rates.org

3 Housing prices in Havering See also Havering Housing Market | Price trends and market breakdown

4 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

5 House Prices in Emerson Park Two houses are for sale at £3m+ and several at £2m+, which reduces the percentage that council tax represents.

6 A £3m house would pay £26,100 council tax in Maryland instead of £4,627 in Havering.

7 Louisianans’ life expectancy is lower than national average – Axios New Orleans In Britain it’s 87 years Life expectancy calculator – Office for National Statistics

8 Louisiana Literacy Rates – Studyville Literacy in Britain is 99% Literacy Rate in UK Statistics 2025 | Illiteracy Rate UK – The Global Statistics