Havering’s Vibrant Democracy

Havering’s election on May 5^th gives voters a choice of 199 candidates.¹ They’ve been working hard on the issues that they think matter to the people of Havering. At the time of writing (30^th April), postal voting means that about a third of the votes have been cast. How many potential voters will make the effort of voting in person?

Previous experience says ‘Abstentions’ will win on the 5^th May. A significant majority of voters won’t vote.

Upminster’s Linda Hawthorn trounced the opposition in 2018 but failed to get a majority of the electorate. That ward held the largest turnout in 2018 with 45.5%, (a 54.5% Abstention rate).² Does it matter? In her case no but it feels wrong. Conservatives have ruled Havering for 20 years with 16 years in coalition. Thus, Conservatives have been in control with a minority of seats and a minority of votes for 20 years.³

Local democracy needs reform but is highly unlikely to get it.

Addendum: Mayoral election for Manchester, 2021

In Greater Manchester Andy Burnham won an outright majority without preference votes. Abstentions amounted to 67.3% of the electorate and the remaining 34.7% was divided between nine candidates. Andy received 67.3% of 34.7% or, 23% of the total electorate.⁴

Notes

1 For a comprehensive list of candidates Notice of Poll and Statement of Persons Nominated (havering.gov.uk)

2 Local elections | Election results | The London Borough Of Havering

3 Robert Benham is a cabinet member and had a thumping majority in Brooklands ward. But! The turnout in 2018 was 32.5%. So, before opposition votes were counted he’d been passively or actively rejected by 67.5% of the electorate.

4 The UK Mayoral Elections, 2021 | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com) Also in 2021 there were two parliamentary byelections where the result was deceptive. See

When Does an Election Become an Undemocratic Lottery? | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com)

Romford Conservatives and Boris Johnson

Romford Conservatives were jubilant when Johnson was elected. They immediately talked of the Boris Bounce. No more. Johnson is now an albatross round the neck of Damian White. If he survives it proves how loyal Romford voters are to the Conservatives.

Damian’s Problems

Partygate: ‘Law-breakers can’t be law-makers’. Johnson’s defence of his law-breaking is strange. It’s,

“I’m an idiot. I didn’t understand what I was saying in my daily Covid-19 broadcasts.”

Johnson defence

Rishi Sunak’s Wife: Sunak’s billionaire wife has decided to pay taxes in Britain because she’s the wife of the Chancellor.

Cost-of-Living Crisis: If you don’t get a 7% increase in your wages, or benefits, you’re worse off than last year.

Pensioners: Pensions increased by 3%. Every pensioner is 4% worse off. Pensioners are overwhelmingly Conservative voters. The ending of the triple-lock was a betrayal.

Sleaze: Johnson’s £80,000 flat refurbishment was paid for by a donor even though he denied it. He tried to change parliament’s rules to protect his friend Owen Patterson who was paid £100,000 a year to be a lobbyist.

Council Tax: This has increased by 18% since 2018, with 3% this year.¹

Conservatives took every Romford seat in 2018 and still didn’t get a Havering majority. If they have any hopes, they can’t afford to lose a single seat. Loyal voters will continue but will flaky Conservatives? One thing’s for certain: Conservatives won’t get the 28 seats needed for a majority.

Note

1 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering

Havering’s Election: 28 is the Magic Number

The Conservatives’ grip on power has been achieved by exploiting Resident Association (RA) votes. RAs don’t want to be the bridesmaid anymore and they’re swaggeringly confident this year is their year. They might be mistaken.

Firstly, there’s more than one RA group. The principal RA group is the Havering Residents Association (HRA). They expect a majority on May 5^th. This is unlikely. Havering has elected one majority Administration in 20 years.

Gooshays ward has two RA groups: (1) Harold Hill Resident Association Gooshays, and (2) Havering Resident Association – Gooshays. So, who are the real RAs? Gooshays voters are confused.

In Rainham ward HRA isn’t standing. The Rainham Independent Resident Association (Rainham and Wennington) is a type of RA group.¹ South Hornchurch ward is a version of them.² It’s possible five flaky so-called RA councillors could be elected in May. If they’re elected how long will they cooperate?

Harold Wood RA councillors have kept Damian White in power since 2018. They’re standing for election and are opposed by HRA. Harold Wood has two RA groups who are (1) Harold Wood Hill Park Residents Association and (2) Havering Residents Association – Harold Wood. (Another eight candidates are standing.)

These four wards will elect eleven councillors, who are crucial to HRA aspirations. HRA won’t get 28 reliable votes. They need coalition partners. The best partners are Conservative and Labour councillors. Their key attraction is their reliability in Council. The downside is the Conservatives are led by Damian White,³ which leaves Labour. Will they play ball?

Havering politics continues as a bizarre, wonderful and fascinating soap opera.⁴

Notes

1 Alby Tebbutt is an ex-Conservative and UKIP councillor; David Durant is a climate change denier and anti-vaxxer; Jeff Tucker makes incoherent speeches in Council.

2 South Hornchurch Ward: Utter Chaos – Politics in Havering

3 Conservatives love power and they might change leader to facilitate the RAs. See Keith Prince vs Damian White: 2022 Conservative Leadership Contest – Politics in Havering

4 If you want to see this sort of thing mocked try John Cleese Life of Brian – The People’s Front of Judea – YouTube

Conservative Candidate: David Taylor (St. Edward’s)

David’s a Facebook politician and Conservative.

Since February Facebook has published ‘David Taylor’s adverts. They don’t mention his fellow Conservative candidates: Councillor Joshua Chapman, cabinet member, and Councillor Nisha Patel. Conservatives always promote themselves as ‘Action Teams’.¹ David doesn’t understand ‘Team’.

So, what’s going on?

St. Edward’s ward has been changed by the Boundary Commission and Judith Holt² has been ousted. David looks like an outsider who’s muscled her out.

David’s Facebook page has a ‘Team’ photo in which he says:

I’m very lucky to be standing with a great team in Councillors Nisha Patel and Joshua Chapman.

There’s a lot I can learn from them. I think smiling is one of them! 14^th March 2022

This is sarcasm dressed as praise.

The advert above³ is a straight-forward attack on the failings of current Conservative councillors. Joshua and Nisha obviously don’t keep constituents informed about the council. Facebook politicians don’t have loyalty in their kitbag of ambitions.

David’s wrong about St. Edward’s. It isn’t as safe for Conservatives as he, and everyone else, assumes. Is David part of the Romford Conservative’s internecine war that’s going on? Roll on the 5^th of May!

Notes

1 Havering’s Election: Collier Row and Mawney Ward, 2022 – Politics in Havering

2 Judith is the President of the Romford Conservative Association and so if she’s been muscled out then they’re an unhappy band of brothers.

3 David’s Facebook page 10^th March 2022: also 4^th March and 28^th February

Havering Council Meeting: 23rd March 2022

This was Damian White’s final council meeting as Leader before the election. He’s matured politically, becoming less frenetic and in charge of the agenda.¹

The meeting began with very long-standing councillors being honoured. Councillors O’Flynn, Ower, and Ramsey were treated stylishly. They demonstrate the stability of Havering’s politics. More councillors will follow them out of the door, not all of whom will be pleased.

Question time² (@1 hour 07 for 45 minutes) was effective. Osman Dervish’s boyish charm carried him through a multiplicity of questions mostly about pavements and pot-holes. (There were nine Resident Association questions.) Roger Ramsey answered Ray Morgon’s question (@1:30 minutes) about Havering’s deficit with magisterial ease showing how much he’ll be missed. Ray’s question was uniquely probing.

The debate on crime was peculiar.³ Councillors demanded more crime reporting using Alice in Wonderland logic. ‘More crime = more police and police are a Good Thing therefore Havering needs more crime reporting.’ Jeff Tucker led the ‘discussion’.

Ray (@2:10) stepped into the gutter. He announced Damian had a driving/drugs conviction. Damian subsequently said he’d struggled with his sexuality and was depressed. This explanation sounds sincere. Ray’s intervention was uncharacteristically sour and unpleasant.

Havering Council meetings end with the National Anthem. They’re usually sung quite appallingly. The sound system on this occasion threw in the towel and it was muted.

Notes

1 Damian is still Leader because Nigel Farage’s ego trip prevented him from becoming an MP. See Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering

2 The entire Council meeting can be seen here Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com)

3 The RA motion is here Final – Motions.pdf (havering.gov.uk)