Damian White’s Political Arithmetic

Damian is a politician, which is a precarious job. In 2018, he finessed a brilliant coup.1 Building on his Romford heartlands he’s maintained a minority administration ever since. Now it’s unravelling.

Michael Deon Burton (South Hornchurch) 48 hours after being elected a Residents’ Association (RA) councillor he joined Damian’s Conservatives, seizing his baubles. His chances in 2022 are nil.

Sally Miller (Elm Park) An RA convert to Damian’s Conservatism. Her Elm Park seat will be RA again after she abandons it.

John Mylod (St Andrew’s) Left his RA group immediately before the 2018 election after a row. He retained it on a personal vote. This seat will probably revert to the RAs.

The Harold Wood Three They discovered the joys of Damian’s baubles but stayed in the RAs. I think they’ll lose in 2022. It’s problematic who’ll win with multiple candidates.

Damian’s arithmetic = minus six?

Damian might win six seats. Rainham is unlikely but South Hornchurch is a lottery with poor RA councillors leaving a poisoned legacy. Beam Park is an unknown and it’s only two seats. New wards in Romford are competitive and Damian can’t take them for granted. He might lose. RA heartlands are as safe as Romford and so the bizarre world of Havering politics jogs on.2

The Conservatives need a terrific 2022 Election. If the RAs unite, Damian is looking at an enormous pay-cut.

Notes

1 Havering Council: Damian White gets power, May 2018 – Politics in Havering

2 The Bizarre World of Hornchurch and Upminster Politics – Politics in Havering

10 thoughts on “Damian White’s Political Arithmetic

  1. Let’s not forget Damion Gate, where Bob Perry defected after blowing the lid off Damon’s attempt to gerrymander the new ward boundaries. It has been said that Bob Perry will stand against Damion in the next local election.

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    1. Thank you for your comment

      I don’t believe that ‘Damiangate’ will impact on the electorate. I take as evidence yesterday’s election results where many people seemingly love a rogue.

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  2. Chris i would be interested to know what you think of Labours chances after this weeks elections and how that might impact on Havering next year

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    1. Thank you for your comment

      Havering’s politics are a nightmare to analyse where a solid Conservative borough has a minority Conservative administration. Therefore everything is ultra local as the ‘tribal’ element seems to have been dissolved.

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  3. I believe education is needed. Unless people choose to look into local politics they continue to vote, or not vote, in the same way. ‘I’ve always voted conservative/Labour’ etc is the cry, with no thought behind it. The key is quashing the apathy.

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    1. Thank you for your comment

      Strangely enough the GLA/Mayoral election shows that the people of Havering aren’t ‘tribal’ in the way you suggest. The Conservatives replicated their 2019 General Election figures but the Council is a minority administration because of the RAs. Engagement remains too low in my opinion but those that do vote appear to be thinking voters.

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  4. Chris –

    John Mylod left the Hornchurch RA after announcing he would not be standing again after losing his position as chairman for the HXRA. He remained a HXRA councillor until a few months before the elections. It was not a row he had with the RA’s.
    When rumours started that he might be joining the Conservatives, he lied to the faces of his ex compatriots only to be found in the Romford Recorder a few days later announcing he was in fact standing as a Conservative candidate.
    He has since been well rewarded for crossing the floor – 3 years as chair of something or other, 1 year as deputy Mayor and 2 years as Mayor.

    Let us hope that the residents of Havering are ready for some real change, things have become quite stale with the administration in same hands for 20 years

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    1. Thank you for your comment

      This narrative is pretty much what I understood to be the case. As he is an elderly man I doubt that he’ll fight the seat again and even if he does I’d have thought that the seat would revert to the RAs. There are significant issues which do need close attention so we’ll see what happens in 2022.

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