Local elections are usually a verdict on mid-term governments, except in east Havering where Resident Associations (RAs) dominate.
Damian knows that in a ‘good’ year, 20181, he didn’t get a majority. He used nifty political footwork and created a majority from renegade RAs.2 Damian looks doomed in 2022 because of his reliance on Romford’s heartlands.3 Romford Conservatives have massive majorities and look impregnable. This is an illusion. No-one survives a vicious political swing, as John Major found out in 1997.
Brexit isn’t the Promised Land of milk and honey. The details will be forgotten by the electorate but there’s a feeling it’s been badly handled. Who’d have expected foreign HGV drivers to be imported to rescue Christmas? And the hospitality sector is reeling from staff shortages.
Damian is facingnational tax increases four weeks before the election. Inflation is rocketing, with electric, gas and petrol leading the way, closely followed by the price of poultry. And saving rates are a joke. Poor council finances means tax increases will be substantial. More trivially, after 20 years the electorate’s bored with Conservatives.
2022 should produce an RA majority but they might implode 2018 style.4 Damian Lazarus White wants to be Leader and knows how to get it. Is there an RA who’s as keen on power as Damian?
Isn’t Havering fascinating?
Notes
1 Jeremy Corbyn was the Labour Leader and Brexit was the Promised Land.
2 See Damian White’s Political Arithmetic – Politics in Havering
3 Local Elections 2018 | The London Borough Of Havering
4 What will happen to the Harold Wood 3? Can anyone work with Jeff Tucker? These are just two significant challenges for an in-coming RA Administration
Politics in Havering 
Chris
You mention the RAs and Tories but never Labour.
Some of you statements suggest that labour may benefit in some areas from the negative tory situation but you don’t talk this up could you explain please. What about the drift out from London being mainly labour voters.
Some positive messages would be appreciated if possible.
Kind regards
Cllr Paul McGeary
Gooshays Ward Councillor
Deputy Leader Havering Labour Group.
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Thank you for your comment
The mission statement of my blog is to critique the political scene in Havering and is non-partisan. I don’t make *predictions* what I do is analyse the politics of Havering. I review all of the Council meeting and the majority of committee meetings and publish appraisals of some of them. This offers me an insight into the quality of the various groups represented on Havering Council. My informed position is that the RAs are very strong electorally but very weak as a cohesive force. I also believe that the Conservatives are very cohesive but are likely to get weaker electorally. I also believe that there will *No Overall Control* once again in 2022.
Therefore the conundrum is this: Who will successfully build a coalition?
Where does Labour come in all of this? They have 5 seats and weren’t *players* in 2018. If they gain seats will the Leadership have the guile to negotiate a role in the new Administration? The question for Labour, just as it is for the RAs, is: How keen are they on taking power? I think that this is an open question. But we already know what the Conservatives will do and so is Labour equally flexible.
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