Upminster By-election, 10th August 2023

RAs traditionally are possessive about their wards. It is their ward. Everything is important because they live alongside their voters. RAs regard Party politics as an obnoxious distraction in local government. They glory in being ‘amateurs’ unsullied by party bosses dictating policy decisions.

Jacqueline Williams doesn’t list her address in the election notification.¹ So what? Her fellow Upminster councillors are cabinet members with listed addresses despite their high profile. Not listing her address makes her semi-detached about core Resident Association values. Modern RAs are a clique trading on a diluted brand.

The late Linda Hawthorn became a councillor when she was 37 years-old. She served her ward for 33 years as a true RA, receiving a miniscule allowance at the beginning. Allowances were £200 a year in 1990. Jacqueline will receive £10,412 p.a. Needless to relate Linda listed her address, home phone number and wasn’t in it for a pension supplement.

Hornchurch and Upminster Conservative Party

Conservative Central Office have thrown their candidate, Ed Green, out of the party He flaunts his obnoxious views.² Did Hornchurch and Upminster Conservatives ‘discover’ his opinions like everyone else – through reading the Romford Recorder? Do they even care?

Selection committees scrutinise candidates. His proposers, Samuel Green and John Mylod, must know him. So, what sort of political conversations did they have? He’s been ejected from the Conservative party but they’re still members. Why? There’s a question mark over the entire selection panel for the same reason.

Meanwhile everyone has noticed Julia Lopez’s deafening silence.³Conservative Central Office should see if Hornchurch and Upminster constituency party is rotten to the core.

Addendum: The election result

Jacqueline won a stupendous victory massively defeating all other candidates

Notes

1 Notification of candidates Upminster By-Election 2023 Statement of Persons Nominated (havering.gov.uk) The Havering Daily published self-penned descriptions of candidates. This is Jacqueline’s Upminster By-Election Special: Jacqueline Williams – Upminster Resident Association Candidate. – The Havering Daily She’s quite entitled to not list her address but it goes against the RAs DNA.

2 Suspended Conservative Ed Green defends Greta Thunberg post | Romford Recorder See also Hornchurch and Upminster Conservative Association select their candidate for Upminster by election. – The Havering Daily

3 Julia Lopez MP | for Hornchurch & Upminster See also the Conservative website News | Hornchurch and Upminster (hornchurchandupminsterconservatives.com) both accessed 8^th August 2023

4 Local elections | Election results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering Councillor: Martin Goode (Harold Wood)

Martin leads a splinter group of Resident councillors.¹ He’s traditional RA, remorselessly focused on apparent trivialities. Pot holes, uneven pavements, overhanging bushes, inconsiderate parking and so on. Martin, unlike most councillors, isn’t a ‘world statesmen’, or, less lovably, on a ‘nice little earner’.

Martin’s Havering’s most diligent backbencher councillor. He doesn’t flick through his papers at meetings. He reads his documents, forming opinions and is unafraid to share them at committees. He’s a hard-core Conservative with a myopically narrow-minded approach to finance. He’s also hard-core RA. This means that where street cleaning is concerned he wants more expenditure.² It’s difficult understanding his four years of support for the Conservatives, 2018-22, unless it was the allowances.

Uniquely, Martin attends cabinet meetings, even though he isn’t a member. In brief, he’s a one-man scrutiny committee. Given his diligence he’s treated with respect by the chair with whom he shares so much. They sing from the same hymn sheet on most things. More councillors should exercise their right of attendance, especially if they’re going to challenge pre-emptive mindsets. However, if they do, they should do their homework first.

Martin is a role model. He works hard in the Town Hall and, presumably, in his constituency.

Notes

1 East Havering Residents’ Group

2 Needless to relate he didn’t object to the subsidy to motorists with 30 minutes free parking in Hornchurch and Upminster.

Ray Morgon’s Cabinet Announced: Who Are They?

After 38 days of ‘wheeling and dealing,’ a cabinet is in place.¹ It’s less diverse and older than Damian White’s outgoing Conservative cabinet. Ray has welded together the independent Residents’ Associations.²He’s also brought Labour into a Working Agreement, making sense of consensus politics. Ray’s done interesting political juggling.

The Cabinet³

Ray and Keith Darvill have had 20 years in opposition. Ray has never succumbed to the Conservatives’ ‘pot-of-gold’ politics. His first act was to reduce Councillor Allowances, which suggests personal integrity. Keith has been a lonely figure following the implosion of Labour in 2002. They’ve both been principal members of Council for 20 years and stand head and shoulders above their colleagues.

Gillian and Oscar Ford are the most powerful husband and wife team since Labour’s Arthur and Margaret Lathom. Oscar (2022) is a complete unknown. He might find scrutiny bruising. For example, is his principal qualification for cabinet being Gillian’s husband? Gillian (2002) has flattered to deceive on many occasions. There always seems to be more unsaid than said. Has she got the inner steel to drive an agenda in a very difficult department?

Paul McGeary (2010), Paul Middleton (2018), Barry Mugglestone (2014) Chris Wilkins (2018) and Graham Williamson (2014) fill the remaining cabinet posts. They’re indifferent speakers but experience will rectify that. Their contributions in committee and council suggests they’re sound. McGeary’s professional profile means he’s amply qualified for his post. Wilkin’s qualification for the Finance post is that he’s a buy-to-let landlord. This is probably insufficient.⁴

Notes

1 14^th June 2022

2 From now on Residents’ Associations will be only referred to by the umbrella title Havering Residents’ Association (HRA)

3 Cabinet structure (havering.gov.uk)

4 mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk)

Havering Residents’ Association: Who Are They?

HRA is an umbrella organization, which maintains the legacy identities of Residents’ Associations (RA). The hard political miles over next four years will be very demanding for this arrangement. Having to make policies for the whole borough and balancing spending priorities is challenging.

The political labels that Havering’s Democracy Department uses for councillors illustrates the problem.¹HRA has six councillors not 20.² Neither the Leader, or his deputy, are identified as HRA councillors. Ray Morgon belongs to the Residents’ Group; Gillian Ford to the Upminster and Cranham Residents’ Group.

This isn’t nit-picking.³ Amateurism is lovable, until it lurches into a destructive shambles when people discover that not every decision is applauded.

HRA’s 20 councillors includes five women. Conservatives have nine out of 23, Labour five out of nine and East Havering Residents’ Group none. HRA and Labour have female deputy leaders so women’s issues should, hopefully, get a voice. Gillian Ford has an especial role in this matter. HRA’s female councillors are middle-aged and their life experiences should have sensitised them to sexist injustices.

HRA’s male councillors are mostly old.( see Addendum)⁴ It should be remembered that Havering is an ‘old’ borough, so this isn’t a complete anomaly.

Ray Morgon has begun consensual politics with his nominees for LGA positions.⁵This policy has to be applauded if it’s a sign of things to come.

Addendum: Ray Morgon’s Cabinet

Ray Morgon (60) Leader and professional politician

Gillian Ford (60) Deputy leader involved mentoring councillors (not LBH)

Chris Wilkins (67) Retired Senior local authority officer in housing

Graham Wilkinson (65) Retired logistic manager

Oscar Ford (?) Retired Senior local authority officer in strategy, performance and resources

Barry Mugglestone (?) Retired Ford Motors supervisor

Keith Darvill (74) Solicitor

Paul McGeary (65) NHS estates manager

Paul Middleton (?) Unemployed

Source Romford Recorder 12th August 2022

Notes

1 Your Councillors | The London Borough Of Havering This list is used for this blog. It’s published by the Democracy department of Havering Council and is based on the information given to the Council by councillors. As of 8th June 2022 HRA, as an umbrella organisation, is recognised on the Democracy site.

2 There are two HRA councillors for Emerson Park and Hylands and Harrow Lodge wards. There’s one each for St Andrew’s and Elm Park.

3 Oscar Ford describes his party as the Upminster and Cranham Residents’ Association. The other two councillors in that ward describe themselves as the Upminster and Cranham Residents’ Group. This is bizarre. The three councillors can’t even agree what party they’re in.

4 Councillors ages aren’t revealed by the Democracy Department but photographs offer clues. The Conservatives have the ‘youngest’ group of councillors including Damian White their Leader.

5 Local Government Association. The national organisation for councillors.

Damian White gets the Post-Election Blues

Damian has defeated a challenge to his leadership by a single vote. He was challenged in a WhatsApp message from Robert Benham,¹ who spoke of ‘in-fighting’. He and his supporters lost and the Conservative ‘pot-of-gold’ politics might inflict a punishment beating on Robert and his supporters. Who knows? Damian might be magnanimous and they’ll all live happily ever after.

The galling fact for Damian is that he leads the largest party but needs five more votes. Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) have 20 seats and are negotiating for Labour’s nine votes to create a Friendly Understanding. HRA have 29 votes in sight but that means taking responsibility. HRA like permanent opposition. It’s painless and well-paid. All of which means that they might actually prefer a seductive offer from Damian.

In 2018 Damian mopped up HRA councillors. He’ll try again but this time it’s harder. Why? Sally Miller, John Mylod and Michael Deon Burton all lost. Their fate is a warning to renegades.² Individual HRA councillors might take Damian’s offer. It is, after all, a few thousand pounds, for doing little else than agreeing with him.

Can Damian heal? The challenges will test his mettle. The nest of vipers that’s the Conservative group have had a very public split, which could result in flaky members drifting to HRA. Throwing gold around solves some problems but there are some Conservatives with ambitions. And they’re lean and hungry.

The excitement is building towards May 25^th when a new Administration is brought into being.

Notes

1 Damian’s deputy in the Conservative group

2 The Harold Wood Three bucked the trend and prospered

Havering: Politics as Friendly Understandings

Eight elections since 1990 have resulted in No Overall Control. Conservatives have ruled Havering since 2002 but only once as a majority party. On every other occasion they’ve used HRA councillors. The last Administration used Harold Wood’s three councillors for four years. The 2022 election has put the Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) in the driving seat.

Damian White was aware of the challenges of getting a majority in Havering and acted accordingly. He believed Rainham was vulnerable. He put in place a team of local Conservatives and won it. The Rainham result was announced and Damian was vindicated. Unfortunately, he hadn’t thought the unthinkable. Romford wasn’t the citadel he imagined and Conservatives lost three seats. Bang went his plans and the ‘nightmare’ of an HRA – Labour Friendly Understanding became a distinct possibility.

Andrew Rosindell could tell Damian a thing or two. In 1996 Havering had a Rainbow Alliance.² HRA’s Louise Sinclair led an Administration that included Conservatives and Socialists. The Socialists were, by Havering standards, hard left. Andrew was voting with Socialists in a joint Administration. Goodbye political purity! Labour enjoyed watching Del Smith influence them for two years.

Havering has spoken. And what they’ve said is they like Friendly Understandings. If the young Andrew could do it for the greater good then so can anyone.

Addendum: A case for Proportional Representation?

Abstentions: 65% of the electorate

Notes

1 Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Rainbow Alliance – Politics in Havering

Havering’s Election: Thrills and Spills

Hornchurch and Upminster have no Conservative councillors at all. Emerson Park fell when Roger Ramsey retired. Labour won their first Romford seat for 20 years but the Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) will take power.

Havering’s politics is complex. The election result¹ is a mish-mash. HRA 20 seats, the Conservatives 23, Labour 9 and Renegade RAs three.² Meanwhile in Rainham the count continued on Monday 9^th May and the result was announced during an acrimonious recount. Four burly police officers were there, at huge expense, to protect the Chief Executive in case things got physical. Three Conservatives won leaving them short of a majority.

HRA + Labour reach the magic 28 seats but will they do a deal? Havering’s politics depend on deals. There’s no political ‘purity’. This is the fifth time in six elections with No Overall Control. In the previous four, Conservatives have done deals with RAs. Now it’s the RAs turn to do a deal or not.

That’s the Thrill. Now the Spill.

Damian White had an innovative way of awarding allowances. Consequently, every Conservative councillor is facing a pay-cut. Damian loses about £55,000 a year. This might explain his anger on Election Night as he saw it dribbling away.

Local government has national organizations. There are many committees which demand representation. There’s nothing quite like an awayday at someone else’s expense and Conservative councillors are going to miss them.

There’s also the glory of summoning Chief Officers and strutting round the Town Hall. Demotion to backbench voting fodder is cruel but is the result of depending on a niche electorate.

Four years isn’t too long if you say it quickly.

Notes

1 Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Harold Wood councillors propped up the Conservatives 2018-22

Havering’s Vibrant Democracy

Havering’s election on May 5^th gives voters a choice of 199 candidates.¹ They’ve been working hard on the issues that they think matter to the people of Havering. At the time of writing (30^th April), postal voting means that about a third of the votes have been cast. How many potential voters will make the effort of voting in person?

Previous experience says ‘Abstentions’ will win on the 5^th May. A significant majority of voters won’t vote.

Upminster’s Linda Hawthorn trounced the opposition in 2018 but failed to get a majority of the electorate. That ward held the largest turnout in 2018 with 45.5%, (a 54.5% Abstention rate).² Does it matter? In her case no but it feels wrong. Conservatives have ruled Havering for 20 years with 16 years in coalition. Thus, Conservatives have been in control with a minority of seats and a minority of votes for 20 years.³

Local democracy needs reform but is highly unlikely to get it.

Addendum: Mayoral election for Manchester, 2021

In Greater Manchester Andy Burnham won an outright majority without preference votes. Abstentions amounted to 67.3% of the electorate and the remaining 34.7% was divided between nine candidates. Andy received 67.3% of 34.7% or, 23% of the total electorate.⁴

Notes

1 For a comprehensive list of candidates Notice of Poll and Statement of Persons Nominated (havering.gov.uk)

2 Local elections | Election results | The London Borough Of Havering

3 Robert Benham is a cabinet member and had a thumping majority in Brooklands ward. But! The turnout in 2018 was 32.5%. So, before opposition votes were counted he’d been passively or actively rejected by 67.5% of the electorate.

4 The UK Mayoral Elections, 2021 | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com) Also in 2021 there were two parliamentary byelections where the result was deceptive. See

When Does an Election Become an Undemocratic Lottery? | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com)

Havering’s Election: 28 is the Magic Number

The Conservatives’ grip on power has been achieved by exploiting Resident Association (RA) votes. RAs don’t want to be the bridesmaid anymore and they’re swaggeringly confident this year is their year. They might be mistaken.

Firstly, there’s more than one RA group. The principal RA group is the Havering Residents Association (HRA). They expect a majority on May 5^th. This is unlikely. Havering has elected one majority Administration in 20 years.

Gooshays ward has two RA groups: (1) Harold Hill Resident Association Gooshays, and (2) Havering Resident Association – Gooshays. So, who are the real RAs? Gooshays voters are confused.

In Rainham ward HRA isn’t standing. The Rainham Independent Resident Association (Rainham and Wennington) is a type of RA group.¹ South Hornchurch ward is a version of them.² It’s possible five flaky so-called RA councillors could be elected in May. If they’re elected how long will they cooperate?

Harold Wood RA councillors have kept Damian White in power since 2018. They’re standing for election and are opposed by HRA. Harold Wood has two RA groups who are (1) Harold Wood Hill Park Residents Association and (2) Havering Residents Association – Harold Wood. (Another eight candidates are standing.)

These four wards will elect eleven councillors, who are crucial to HRA aspirations. HRA won’t get 28 reliable votes. They need coalition partners. The best partners are Conservative and Labour councillors. Their key attraction is their reliability in Council. The downside is the Conservatives are led by Damian White,³ which leaves Labour. Will they play ball?

Havering politics continues as a bizarre, wonderful and fascinating soap opera.⁴

Notes

1 Alby Tebbutt is an ex-Conservative and UKIP councillor; David Durant is a climate change denier and anti-vaxxer; Jeff Tucker makes incoherent speeches in Council.

2 South Hornchurch Ward: Utter Chaos – Politics in Havering

3 Conservatives love power and they might change leader to facilitate the RAs. See Keith Prince vs Damian White: 2022 Conservative Leadership Contest – Politics in Havering

4 If you want to see this sort of thing mocked try John Cleese Life of Brian – The People’s Front of Judea – YouTube

Havering Council Meeting: 23rd March 2022

This was Damian White’s final council meeting as Leader before the election. He’s matured politically, becoming less frenetic and in charge of the agenda.¹

The meeting began with very long-standing councillors being honoured. Councillors O’Flynn, Ower, and Ramsey were treated stylishly. They demonstrate the stability of Havering’s politics. More councillors will follow them out of the door, not all of whom will be pleased.

Question time² (@1 hour 07 for 45 minutes) was effective. Osman Dervish’s boyish charm carried him through a multiplicity of questions mostly about pavements and pot-holes. (There were nine Resident Association questions.) Roger Ramsey answered Ray Morgon’s question (@1:30 minutes) about Havering’s deficit with magisterial ease showing how much he’ll be missed. Ray’s question was uniquely probing.

The debate on crime was peculiar.³ Councillors demanded more crime reporting using Alice in Wonderland logic. ‘More crime = more police and police are a Good Thing therefore Havering needs more crime reporting.’ Jeff Tucker led the ‘discussion’.

Ray (@2:10) stepped into the gutter. He announced Damian had a driving/drugs conviction. Damian subsequently said he’d struggled with his sexuality and was depressed. This explanation sounds sincere. Ray’s intervention was uncharacteristically sour and unpleasant.

Havering Council meetings end with the National Anthem. They’re usually sung quite appallingly. The sound system on this occasion threw in the towel and it was muted.

Notes

1 Damian is still Leader because Nigel Farage’s ego trip prevented him from becoming an MP. See Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering

2 The entire Council meeting can be seen here Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com)

3 The RA motion is here Final – Motions.pdf (havering.gov.uk)