‘Keep Taxes Low! Sell the Family Silver!’ The Road To Bankruptcy

Henry VIII looted monasteries because he wanted their wealth for his aspirations by the 17^th century Britain was impoverished once more causing civil wars.¹ Between 1700 and 1900 British vast wealth came from exploiting the Empire. This was spent between 1914-8 and 1939-45 on two world wars. In the 1980s Britain’s wealth came from North Sea oil. Margaret Thatcher squandered this on war and defence spending.^2,3 She followed this by selling national industrial assets, which were sold in, ‘Everything Must Go,’ sales.

Thatcher’s self-serving reason was ‘efficiency’. She included social housing in her off-loading of public assets. This turbo-charged the housing crisis of the 2000s. Her economic policies ended in 2013 with the Royal Mail privatisation.⁴

George Osborne’s fig-leaf was Austerity. By out-sourcing tax increases to local government he maintained the illusion that Conservatives are a Low Taxation party. The current (2023-4) Council tax permissions illustrate this graphically. Havering can increase tax by 3%, for local purposes. This can be increased by two percentage points to help pay for social care.⁵ Social care is a mandatory, demand-led service and very expensive.

Osborne, and successive Conservative Chancellors, out-sourced tax increases to local government to dodge bad publicity. However, the golden goose will die when well-run councils, like Havering, are bankrupted.⁶

Beginning with Henry VIII, Britain has had successive governments believing sound financial management is optional. Boris Johnson’s economic policy was, ‘Having my cake and eating it.’ All very amusing when a child says it but when a prime minister acts on that premise? Britain’s economically illiterate governments continue to impoverish the nation.

Notes

1 a) a parliamentary civil war 1629-40, b) three civil wars 1641-49, c) regime change 1649-60, d) another regime change, 1660-88, e) invasion/civil war 1688, f) yet another regime change 1688-1714. The 17^th century was very unstable.

2 The Ricardian Curse, Margaret Thatcher and North Sea Oil | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com)

3 The British Army’s Global Delusions | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com)

4 Ironically the Royal Mail was established by the Tudors in 1516.

5 This a 67% increase on the basic, government approved council tax figure. 67%!

6 The UK councils facing potential ‘bankruptcy’ as coronavirus pandemic takes huge toll on public finances | National (inyourarea.co.uk) and also Local authority financial sustainability and the section 114 regime – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Havering and the Budget: Council Tax 2023-4

If the Government is serious about raising money to pay for social care, as well as level up the country, it could increase revenues from council tax without putting an extra burden on the less well off, by overhauling the bands used to calculate it.¹

Conservative governments have wrecked Havering’s finances since 2010. Funding has been slashed as has the ability of the council to replace lost revenue through increasing council tax. The 2022 budget statement allows councils to increase council tax by 3% plus 2% for social care responsibilities. This decision may result in Havering becoming bankrupt.²

The facts

In 2010-11, band D council tax was £1505. If this had increased by inflation, the 2022-23 council tax would have been £2123.94, it’s actually £1970.97.³ The shortfall is £152.97 for band D houses in Havering, which is 10.16%. Owners of band H houses have benefitted massively from this policy.⁴Havering council is losing huge amounts of revenue because Conservatives like to ‘keep taxes low’.

‘Keeping taxes low’ has been popular since 2010. But the chickens are coming home to roost. Conservatives want something for nothing. And the result is their policy will bankrupt Havering and wreck our society.

Very challenging decisions will be made by Ray Morgon’s cabinet because the government obliges Havering to ‘balance the books’. He can’t ‘print’ money to sort out Havering’s problem unlike the government. Statutory care services will be degraded along with other services like the weekly bin collection.

The Road to Bankruptcy

The amount collected in Council Tax for 2022-3 was £176.185m.⁵ If this had been increased by inflation, since 2010, revenue would be £17.9 million more this year.

Shortfall £17.9 million

If the £70 million government grant of 2010 had been increased by inflation it would be worth £77.12 million. Havering received £1.5 million for the 2022-3 financial year.

Shortfall £76.62 million

Total Shortfall for 2022-3: £93.52 million

The entire budget programme of cuts, efficiencies, job losses and service degradation are a direct result of Conservative policies since 2010. Morgon’s four year savings programme of £70 million is less than a single year of revenue shortfall caused by government policies.

Notes

1 Comment: ‘A council tax rise (done right) might not be a terrible thing’ (msn.com)

2 Havering’s Overview and Scrutiny Board, 13th October 2022 – Politics in Havering See this for an analysis of the budget Autumn Budget: Council tax could rise above £2,000 per year for the first time | ITV News

3 2010-11 24 February 2010 Council (Council Tax) Agenda.pdf (havering.gov.uk) £1505 council tax if growing with inflation, as calculated by the Bank of England, means that in 2022-3 that figure should have grown to £2123.94. Search results | The London Borough Of Havering £1970.97 2022-3

4 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering

5 10 – Appendix G – Council Tax statement.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

Havering Council Meeting: 13th July, 2022

Ray Morgon’s cabinet has a lot to prove. None have had policy making positions and one’s only been on Council for two months. So how did they do?

Question Time was Ray’s cabinet’s first outing. Classy Conservative questions were a sharp improvement on the tedious HRA efforts we used to endure. There were two standout moments.

Dilip Patel asked about Development (@42 minutes)¹. Graham Williamson casually remarked about developing the ‘Green Belt’ in the fullness of time. This is a dramatic policy shift. I wonder if his cabinet colleagues know about it? Osman Dervish (@53 minutes) asked Oscar Ford about free school meals during holiday periods. He said there won’t be any unless government financed them and then burbled about budget constraints. Ford was unmoved when it was pointed out this meant sacrificing vulnerable children during a catastrophic cost-of-living crisis.

Sue Ospreay (@1 hour10) was emotional about derelict land in Rainham. Morgon said it was a ‘Bad Thing’. They’ll still be wringing their hands in horror in ten years.

Opposing ULEZ² in Havering (@1:38) was led by David Taylor. Keith Prince’s rant, (@1 hour50) and Judith Holt’s desire to join Essex (@1:52) convinced me some Conservatives are having a mental breakdown. Williamson (@1 hour:55) remarked that 7% of Havering’s death rate was due to air pollution. This is three deaths a week, every week, which is a good argument for ULEZ, I’d have thought.³

There were an unprecedented six Conservatives absent. They included Damian White who’ll be pleased to know his group gave a good show.

Notes

1 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com)

2 For ULEZ see Ultra Low Emission Zone (ulez.co.uk)

3 Municipality of HAVERING: demographic balance, population trend, death rate, birth rate, migration rate (urbistat.com)

Havering’s Register of Interests: Three Case Studies

Every councillor has a legal obligation to fill out the Register of Interests. The government regard this as so important that if statements are false, it’s potentially a criminal act. Every councillor knows this.

The Register must be completed within 28 days of the election, which, this year, falls on the 2^nd June 2022. Anyone not filling in the Register isn’t meeting their legal obligations.

Philip Ruck (HRA: Cranham) apparently hasn’t filled in his form, which is a significant failure. Philip’s a new councillor but Keith Prince (Con: Squirrels Heath) has a long and distinguished career behind him. He too hasn’t filled in his Register of Interests which makes me suspicious. Keith’s GLA entry is overflowing with detail. Can it be that they’ve filled in their forms and been let down by the Council? If not, then it’s a reprehensible failure.¹

Sue Ospreay (Con: Rainham and Wennington)² signed a blank form, which is legally binding. It can be tested under the true/false criteria. On the basis of the Register statement of Jacqueline McArdle (Con: same ward) Sue’s statement is false. Jacqueline received donations from the Conservative Party. It’s highly unlikely that Sue didn’t also receive a donation.

The Register of Interests³ is a vital part of democracy. The Councillors who apparently failed their legal obligation, without a reasonable explanation, should lose their allowances. Sue should be given the opportunity to revise her form if it’s deemed necessary.

Notes

1 Councillor details – Councillor Philip Ruck | The London Borough Of Havering This entire discussion is based on the information held on this site. The information was accessed on June 21^st 2022. For other councillors go to the relevant entry. For Keith Prince see for his GLA statement Keith Prince – Register of interests | London City Hall

2 mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk)

3 MPs also fill in a Register of Interests. This one is for Jon Cruddas (Lab) (Dagenham and Rainham) House of Commons – The Register of Members’ Financial Interests (3 May 2022: Cruddas, Jon ) (parliament.uk) For other MPs just fill in the relevant name.

Damian White gets the Post-Election Blues

Damian has defeated a challenge to his leadership by a single vote. He was challenged in a WhatsApp message from Robert Benham,¹ who spoke of ‘in-fighting’. He and his supporters lost and the Conservative ‘pot-of-gold’ politics might inflict a punishment beating on Robert and his supporters. Who knows? Damian might be magnanimous and they’ll all live happily ever after.

The galling fact for Damian is that he leads the largest party but needs five more votes. Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) have 20 seats and are negotiating for Labour’s nine votes to create a Friendly Understanding. HRA have 29 votes in sight but that means taking responsibility. HRA like permanent opposition. It’s painless and well-paid. All of which means that they might actually prefer a seductive offer from Damian.

In 2018 Damian mopped up HRA councillors. He’ll try again but this time it’s harder. Why? Sally Miller, John Mylod and Michael Deon Burton all lost. Their fate is a warning to renegades.² Individual HRA councillors might take Damian’s offer. It is, after all, a few thousand pounds, for doing little else than agreeing with him.

Can Damian heal? The challenges will test his mettle. The nest of vipers that’s the Conservative group have had a very public split, which could result in flaky members drifting to HRA. Throwing gold around solves some problems but there are some Conservatives with ambitions. And they’re lean and hungry.

The excitement is building towards May 25^th when a new Administration is brought into being.

Notes

1 Damian’s deputy in the Conservative group

2 The Harold Wood Three bucked the trend and prospered

Havering’s Election: Thrills and Spills

Hornchurch and Upminster have no Conservative councillors at all. Emerson Park fell when Roger Ramsey retired. Labour won their first Romford seat for 20 years but the Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) will take power.

Havering’s politics is complex. The election result¹ is a mish-mash. HRA 20 seats, the Conservatives 23, Labour 9 and Renegade RAs three.² Meanwhile in Rainham the count continued on Monday 9^th May and the result was announced during an acrimonious recount. Four burly police officers were there, at huge expense, to protect the Chief Executive in case things got physical. Three Conservatives won leaving them short of a majority.

HRA + Labour reach the magic 28 seats but will they do a deal? Havering’s politics depend on deals. There’s no political ‘purity’. This is the fifth time in six elections with No Overall Control. In the previous four, Conservatives have done deals with RAs. Now it’s the RAs turn to do a deal or not.

That’s the Thrill. Now the Spill.

Damian White had an innovative way of awarding allowances. Consequently, every Conservative councillor is facing a pay-cut. Damian loses about £55,000 a year. This might explain his anger on Election Night as he saw it dribbling away.

Local government has national organizations. There are many committees which demand representation. There’s nothing quite like an awayday at someone else’s expense and Conservative councillors are going to miss them.

There’s also the glory of summoning Chief Officers and strutting round the Town Hall. Demotion to backbench voting fodder is cruel but is the result of depending on a niche electorate.

Four years isn’t too long if you say it quickly.

Notes

1 Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Harold Wood councillors propped up the Conservatives 2018-22

Havering’s Vibrant Democracy

Havering’s election on May 5^th gives voters a choice of 199 candidates.¹ They’ve been working hard on the issues that they think matter to the people of Havering. At the time of writing (30^th April), postal voting means that about a third of the votes have been cast. How many potential voters will make the effort of voting in person?

Previous experience says ‘Abstentions’ will win on the 5^th May. A significant majority of voters won’t vote.

Upminster’s Linda Hawthorn trounced the opposition in 2018 but failed to get a majority of the electorate. That ward held the largest turnout in 2018 with 45.5%, (a 54.5% Abstention rate).² Does it matter? In her case no but it feels wrong. Conservatives have ruled Havering for 20 years with 16 years in coalition. Thus, Conservatives have been in control with a minority of seats and a minority of votes for 20 years.³

Local democracy needs reform but is highly unlikely to get it.

Addendum: Mayoral election for Manchester, 2021

In Greater Manchester Andy Burnham won an outright majority without preference votes. Abstentions amounted to 67.3% of the electorate and the remaining 34.7% was divided between nine candidates. Andy received 67.3% of 34.7% or, 23% of the total electorate.⁴

Notes

1 For a comprehensive list of candidates Notice of Poll and Statement of Persons Nominated (havering.gov.uk)

2 Local elections | Election results | The London Borough Of Havering

3 Robert Benham is a cabinet member and had a thumping majority in Brooklands ward. But! The turnout in 2018 was 32.5%. So, before opposition votes were counted he’d been passively or actively rejected by 67.5% of the electorate.

4 The UK Mayoral Elections, 2021 | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com) Also in 2021 there were two parliamentary byelections where the result was deceptive. See

When Does an Election Become an Undemocratic Lottery? | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com)

Conservative Candidate: David Taylor (St. Edward’s)

David’s a Facebook politician and Conservative.

Since February Facebook has published ‘David Taylor’s adverts. They don’t mention his fellow Conservative candidates: Councillor Joshua Chapman, cabinet member, and Councillor Nisha Patel. Conservatives always promote themselves as ‘Action Teams’.¹ David doesn’t understand ‘Team’.

So, what’s going on?

St. Edward’s ward has been changed by the Boundary Commission and Judith Holt² has been ousted. David looks like an outsider who’s muscled her out.

David’s Facebook page has a ‘Team’ photo in which he says:

I’m very lucky to be standing with a great team in Councillors Nisha Patel and Joshua Chapman.

There’s a lot I can learn from them. I think smiling is one of them! 14^th March 2022

This is sarcasm dressed as praise.

The advert above³ is a straight-forward attack on the failings of current Conservative councillors. Joshua and Nisha obviously don’t keep constituents informed about the council. Facebook politicians don’t have loyalty in their kitbag of ambitions.

David’s wrong about St. Edward’s. It isn’t as safe for Conservatives as he, and everyone else, assumes. Is David part of the Romford Conservative’s internecine war that’s going on? Roll on the 5^th of May!

Notes

1 Havering’s Election: Collier Row and Mawney Ward, 2022 – Politics in Havering

2 Judith is the President of the Romford Conservative Association and so if she’s been muscled out then they’re an unhappy band of brothers.

3 David’s Facebook page 10^th March 2022: also 4^th March and 28^th February

Havering’s Elections and the Budget, 2022-23

In the good-old-days voters knew where they stood. Conservatives were heartless; Labour were warm-hearted; Resident Associations (RA) loved pavements. Happy days!

Rishi Sunak’s Stately Home in Yorkshire: Council Tax Band H

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, set Havering’s Council Tax at 3%. He imposed the principal budget item, Adult Social Care, without funding it. This budget is demand led so no-one knows how much it will eventually cost. Councillors do know Havering has the oldest population in London and dozens of Care Homes. Central government has imposed Stealth Taxes on Havering for 12 years.

A £150 million budget¹ was nodded through with passionate debate about £70,000 ‘savings’ from Councillors Allowances. This would be allocated to street cleaning. An RA policy!

The 3% Council Tax increase is inadequate. Inflation is 7% rising to 10% by December. The in-coming Administration will have to make some grim decisions in October.

Council officers wrote an analysis of ‘risk’ factors for the budget.²Item C4 refers to business rates losses, “it is hoped that the Government will fully recognise this in future settlements”. Interest rates have increased twice in three months. C8 says, “An increase in interest rates will have a direct impact on the Council’s treasury strategy.” Each 1% increase equals £1 million of additional expenditure. C19 notes a potential loss of “several million pounds” and C22 says government alteration in charging for ‘Green Waste’ will cost £800,000.

The Administration’s 400 job losses will save £7 million.³They are, “Staffing Reductions Through Efficiency”. Achieved by removing, “activities that do not benefit residents.” Technology [has] “moved on significantly… [and] efficiencies through modernising work processes and improving service offers to our customers and partners.” A budget based on a ‘wish and prayer’.

Jeff Tucker declared he hadn’t read the budget before speaking for 25 minutes. But it was Rishi Sunak’s Stealth Taxes which needed discussing and he wasn’t present.⁴So perhaps Jeff got it right.

Notes

1 Issue – items at meetings – 2022/23 Budget and 2022-2026 Medium Term Financial Strategy | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Microsoft Word – Appendix D – Risk Register (003) (havering.gov.uk)

3 Appendix A Budget Savings.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

4 Havering Council Tax Meeting, 2nd March 2022 – Politics in Havering

Keith Prince vs Damian White: 2022 Conservative Leadership Contest

Keith is a Conservative superstar¹ and fancies himself. He was re-elected a GLA Member in May, 2021 but it was a joyless victory. Sadiq Khan’s London Labour are tightening their grip and that’s the kiss of death for Keith who wants to be a mover-and-shaker. Keith now has his sights on Havering. The Havering Conservative Leadership election, 2022, could be blood-thirsty.

Political ironies pile up. Damian is vacating his seat in Squirrels Heath and moving to Havering-Atte-Bower. And who steps into Squirrels Heath ward? Keith!

Damian shouldn’t be underestimated. He’s politically adroit and built a coalition in 2018 out of nothing. For four years he’s used Special Responsibility Allowances² for the only electorate that matters: Conservative councillors. But that was then. What can Keith offer?

It takes a very brave Leader to re-jig allowances when it’s going to cost councillors money. Neither are going to do that. So the election depends on other things. And what might they be?

Damian has amiable contempt for his colleagues, which he conceals badly. The Bob Perry revelations about possible gerrymandering showed Damian’s unpleasant side. He’s also keen on councillors pulling their weight when it comes to campaigning. This is unpopular with elderly Conservatives who want a quiet life. Perhaps Keith will be more understanding?

This is predicated on the Conservatives forming an administration in 2022, which is far from certain. Keith could find himself rejected by Squirrels Heath’s voters and nursing even more thwarted ambitions.

Notes

1 Keith was a Havering councillor 1990-5; a Redbridge councillor 2003-18 (Leader 2009-14); GLA member 2016-present. He was re-elected in 2021 with a majority of 15,327. On 9th May 2022 Damian survived a leadership challenge by one vote but not by Keith but by stalking horse Robert Benham.

2 2020 Members Allowances final.pdf (havering.gov.uk) For the allowances of individual councillors see Havering Members Allowances 2018-19 summary This is slightly out of date but gives a reasonable idea.