Havering’s Election: An Undemocratic Democracy?

Regardless of the destruction of the Conservative Party, Labour came second in Romford and third in Hornchurch and Upminster. Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell were re-elected but were rejected by a majority of the electorate.

Julia Lopez

Julia was trounced by the anti-Conservative vote.¹She won her parliamentary seat with 15,260 votes. The other five candidates had 31,651 votes, which is 16,391 more.
Worse, the abstention rate was 37.65% of the 75,421 electorate. Julia became MP with 15,260 votes out of an electorate of 75,421. She won with 20% of the vote.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for her.

Andrew Rosindell

The same analysis applies to Andrew. He became MP with 15,339 votes and 27,808 actively opposing him. Turnout was 60%, which is 29,492 voters. Active and passive opposing votes = 57,300 voters and Andrew just reached the magic 20% needed for victory.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for him.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew are blameless. The British electoral system needs to be changed but won’t be. Change comes when winners cooperate and they like systems that deliver power. Meanwhile Nigel Farage’s Reform Party picked up 4 million votes and five seats. They, like the LibDems and Greens, suffer from the system.

Havering’s local elections are worse, much worse. Turnout was in the range 23.5% to 42.3%, in 2022. No ward achieved a 50% turnout. When do elections stop being democratic? Councillors could be elected with 2% of the vote.

Ludicrous as it seems, this is possible.

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024

Havering has hard-core Conservatives, as was demonstrated by Susan Hall trouncing Labour in May, 2024. The General Election result¹ was, as the bookies say, ‘a form result’. But was it?

Julia Lopez

In 2019 she had a majority of 23,308. This evaporated to one of 1,943 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic but when viewed locally, it accurately reflects the electorate. They vote Conservative and hold their noses. HRA have made the constituency a Tory-free zone. Worse, she is a poor constituency MP with no personal support.

Andrew Rosindell

In 2019 he had a majority of 17,893. This evaporated to one of 1,463 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic for a long-standing, hard-working constituency MP. Unlike Hornchurch and Upminster, Andrew’s constituency has a significant number of Conservative councillors. He’s well-known, is an expert campaigner and yet, his result mirrored that of the lack-lustre Julia.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew couldn’t be more different. She’s a political opportunist with a glittering career in the past. He’s an Essex man Tory. Andrew didn’t get a personal vote and Romford had their worst result since 1997.

Havering is changing. In Hornchurch and Upminster, the Reform party, from a standing start, came second. Reform isn’t a political party: They’re a private company owned by Nigel Farage. They’re a PR party tapping into the utter distaste and sense of betrayal that many voters feel about the principal parties. They’re Conservative party ultras who have voters who don’t know what that implies.

HRA are in the same territory. They also reflect the desire for change and have to operate outside their comfort zone. The question is, can they?

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Elections, 2nd May, 2024

Havering is Conservative heartland. Although they appear to be in terminal decline nationally, that is fake news.¹ When everything is against them, their ‘tribe’ rallies round. Susan Hall² and Keith Prince³ romped home with substantial majorities against Labour. Grim national polling wasn’t reflected in Havering.

Susan Hall

Even her best friends wouldn’t describe her as dynamic. Her role was to be a sacrificial lamb facing slaughter. Her memorable ‘policy’ was scrapping ULEZ from “day one”. Despite her simplistic politics, she trounced Sadiq Khan by 32,000+ votes.

Keith Prince

He has been a GLA Assembly member for eight years. He avoided campaigning on his record during those years. This was wise. Keith is chair of GLA’s Transport Committee and Havering has major issues. First and foremost is the 50 year old Gallows Corner flyover, which is a blot on the landscape. Keith’s political strategy is wringing his hands in horror. This was unsuccessful with Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan.

Speculation

Conservatives should be worried about the Reform party – aka UKIP. They got 19,696 votes as a name on a ballot paper. Reform is popular in Havering, being right-wing without policies. Their voters think they can make a difference and they’re right.

Damian White lost in the 2019 general election because of UKIP.⁴It’s impossible to know the impact on Andrew Rosindell but his majority is 17,893. If there’s a general election swing and a right-wing party, then he might be caught in a pincer movement. Julia Lopez’s majority is 23,000+ and only a political tsunami will shift her.

Notes

1 Since 2022 there have been seven defections from the Conservatives to HRA

2 havering_and_redbridge_mayoral_results_2024.pdf (londonelects.org.uk)

3 GLA Elections 2024: Havering and Redbridge Constituency Member results | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering

Havering Council Meeting, 27th March 2024

The Conservatives had a humdinger of a motion for debate (see Addendum). It challenged the HRA/Labour *solution* to the budget deficit.¹This naïve commentator waited for fireworks from political heavyweights debating the future of Havering.

What should have happened

Keith Prince would denounce the £54m loan as reckless folly, mortgaging the future. He pointed out that £54m @7% for 20 years creates a stonking £68m² in interest payments, more than doubling the original debt. Keith could continue that the loan ‘kicked the can down the road’. In 2026 everything would be the same with Adult, Children’s Services and Homelessness turbo-charging the deficit. What, Keith thundered rhetorically, would Ray Morgon do then? Borrow another £54m?

Ray Morgon would angrily riposte that defending government funding was bizarre. In 2010, Havering’s grant was £70m and in 2023, £1.9m. Meanwhile, after 14 years of government mis-management, inflation added 47% to costs.³ Therefore, Havering needs a £103m grant just to stand still! Additionally, the council had unfunded responsibilities. Homelessness came from government policies with enormous costs for the council. Ray might finish by saying everything will be different in two years’ time.

What did happen

Ray Morgon and Keith Prince agreed not to have a debate and went home two hours earlier than usual.

Addendum: Conservative Motion

This chamber calls on the council to release to the public the full letters, from the Government Ministers and from the Leader, regarding the Capitalisation Directive. The chamber calls on the Government to provide the funding as a grant instead of a loan.⁴

Best speech: None

Runner-up: None

Best sarcasm: Barry Mugglestone

Notes

1 Havering Council: Budget Setting – 28th February, 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 It might not be, we haven’t seen the T&Cs yet. Actually the money is ‘drawn’ down over the next two years so the £68m is calculated for 18 full years of interest.

3 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

4 Public reports pack 27th-Mar-2024 19.30 Council.pdf (havering.gov.uk) p117

Havering’s People Overview and Scrutiny Committee, 5th March, 2024 (part two)

This agenda included a Housing item and the School Performance analysis. The latter is the focus of this blog.

Matt Stanton (1 hour47)¹expressed concerns about how wide the variations in achievement between schools are. He asked the Director what was needed to rectify this problem. Trevor Cook replied ‘Context’ was needed to understand the issue. This is pivotal as it implies underachievement is inevitable. It chimed with remarks about fortunate authorities who suffered less from Covid-19 and had superior funding.

Praising Hall Mead and Redden Court damaged his argument. In 2019 both were below average.²They’re now average. This happened during five challenging years. Their performance has improved in the Covid-19 and Funding Crisis years.

The 2019 list of eleven below average schools has reduced to six in 2024.⁴ Emerson Park has dropped into the ‘below average’ group since 2019. A third of Havering’s secondary schools are below average (6 out of 12) and five schools left the 2019 list.

Matt’s concerns were echoed by Frankie Walker, Mandy Anderson and Judith Holt. Judith believed every Havering school should be above average. She refuted Trevor Cook’s response about Covid-19 and Funding. Her actual doubts related to whether his explanations were correlation or causation. All of Havering’s schools share the same challenges but nonetheless there are massive differences in outcomes.

Trevor Cook is soothing. However, members were in a combative mood looking for action. Some academies are successful but others are weak. A third of Havering’s schools are below average, which is far too many.

Notes

1 Agenda for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee on Tuesday, 5th March, 2024, 7.00 pm | The London Borough Of Havering Go to webcast and then to one hour 47 for the beginning of his contribution

2 Havering and Redbridge: A Tale of Two Boroughs – Politics in Havering 29^th Nov 2019

3 All schools and colleges in Havering – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk) This gives the current status of every school in Havering.

4 Schools leaving the 2019 list are Abbs Cross, Hornchurch High, Royal Liberty, Redden Court and Hall Mead

Havering, Barking and Dagenham and The Attainment Gap, 2023

Providing great schooling is the single most important thing we can do to help any child from a disadvantaged background succeed. It’s also the single most important thing we can do to boost the long-term productivity of our economy George Osborne’s Budget speech in full (ft.com) 2016

Education is the, “single most important thing” (see above) for disadvantaged students and the national economy. George Osborne funded the Pupil Premium (PP), which, in 2023, had a £2.9bn budget as an investment.¹ Schools are allocated £1,035 per student from PP funds. They are expected to close the attainment gap because it is a negative in human and economic terms.

The ‘attainment gap’ is based on failing to achieve Grade 5 GCSE in English and Maths because of poverty. It is used by the government in their analysis of results.² There are shocking variations between boroughs in their achievement. Students in Redbridge are more than twice as likely to get the Gold Standard as those in Havering.³ (see graph below)

Barking and Dagenham is the fifth most deprived borough in England⁴whilst its neighbour Havering is prosperous. Many schools have a successful learning environment for disadvantaged students. Other schools, apparently, expect them to fail by not meeting their needs.

Havering’s 653 Year 11 disadvantaged students in 2023 achieved a ‘Gold Standard’⁵ pass rate of 27%. Barking and Dagenham’s 939 disadvantaged students achieved a 38% pass rate. Eleven percentage points is a chasm. If Havering’s schools matched Barking and Dagenham’s, the success rate would soar. Put simply, it equates to an additional 68 passes for Havering’s Year 11s in 2023.

All of Havering’s schools are academies who are accountable for these disastrous results. The academies are entirely responsible for educational outcomes.

Notes

1 SN06700.pdf (parliament.uk)

2 Compare the performance of schools and colleges in England – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) This is an invaluable resource and is relatively straight-forward.

3 Havering’s GCSE Attainment Gap, 2023 – Politics in Havering See also Havering and Redbridge’s Disadvantaged Secondary Students – Politics in Havering ‘Gold Standard’ as it is a principal gateway qualification post-16

4 IoD2019_Statistical_Release.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk) See especially map 2 on p12

Havering’s GCSE Attainment Gap, 2023

GCSE Grade 5 English and Maths is as crucial for disadvantaged students as for all other youngsters. Unfortunately, disadvantaged students do so badly in some schools, it’s as if they’re victims of a conspiracy.¹

The Gold Standard for GCSE is ‘Grade 5 English and Maths’. This is the benchmark used to define the attainment gap. It’s ‘Gold’ because it impacts on post-16 opportunities where success is a game changer. Regardless of the excellence of other GCSE results students must have Grade 5 English and Maths to progress to ‘A’ level for example.

St Edwards is the only Havering school with a level playing field for disadvantaged students.

The Human Cost

In 2023, 653 disadvantaged students sat GCSE. The national success result for all students is 45.3%.² This benchmark means 295 disadvantaged students should have achieved the Gold Standard in Havering. Their actual results are 175 Gold Standard passes (27%). 120 students were denied many post-16 opportunities because their school didn’t level-up the achievement gap by using government funds efficiently.

(If St Edwards is used as the benchmark, Havering’s attainment gap increases to 151 students.)

Government funding for disadvantaged students

Schools with disadvantaged students receive £1,035 per student Pupil Premium (PP) funding. ‘Disadvantaged’ means receiving ‘Free School Meals’ or being ‘Looked After’. The money is paid directly to schools as they’re trusted to use the funds wisely and ‘level-up’ achievement.³ The minimum the government paid Havering’s 18 schools for Year 11s, 2022-3, is £678,249. Most of that funding wasn’t used efficiently as can be seen from the table above.

The Attainment Gap: Marshalls Park and Emerson Park

Both schools achieved 45% ’Gold Standard’ results for students in general but utterly failed disadvantaged students with a ‘success’ rate of 16% and 17% respectively.

Emerson Park don’t publish exam results but state, “Emerson Park Academy is, once again, celebrating an outstanding set of GCSE results.” (my emphasis)
Marshalls Park don’t publish their results either. They say, “We believe that we provide an academic education, that is grounded in strong literacy and numeracy….” (my emphasis)³

The government’s PP funding stream for Year 11 disadvantaged students is £46,575 for Marshalls Park and £48,645 for Emerson Park. Neither the government or Year 11 disadvantaged students got ‘value-for-money’. It’s clear PP funding isn’t used to the best effect. Both schools have strategies which need an urgent revisit with external experts.

The Attainment Gap: OFSTED

The attainment gap is not discussed in OFSTED reports nor is the use of Pupil Premium funding.⁴

Notes

1 The-Forgotten-Third-Interim-Report-March-2019.pdf (ascl.org.uk) This research focuses on Grade 4 and is less than what is used for this discussion. Grade 4 is an entry level qualification and is discounted for ‘A’ level courses.

2 Key stage 4 performance, Academic year 2022/23 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

3 Emerson Park Academy – A message from Mr McGuinness regarding GCSE Results This relates to 2022 there is nothing for 2023 even though the data was accessed February 2024. See also Marshalls (marshallspark.org.uk)

4 Marshalls Park 50148108 (ofsted.gov.uk) See also Emerson Park 50193985 (ofsted.gov.uk)

Why isn’t there a Standard Format for the publication of GCSE results?

Havering doesn’t have a standard format for publishing GCSE results.¹ As a result they’re difficult to interpret. Havering’s schools aren’t alone;

Woodford County High, Redbridge²

No of Year 11 pupils	178
No of GCSE entries	1754
% of levels 9 – 7 (equivalent to A*+ A Grades )	80%
% of levels 9	32%
% of pupils achieving 5+ levels 9-5	100%
% of pupils achieving 5+A*-C levels 9-5 including English & Maths	99%
% of students attaining English Baccalaureate	97%

There’s little detail – does the school have any weak subject areas? – but what is published is intelligible.

Hornchurch High School³

This school offers time-lapsed results from 2022, even though the 2023 results came out in late August ’23.

Performance Measure
Progress 8 Score	-0.42
Attainment 8 Score	45.4
% pupils achieving a grade 5 or above in GCSE English and maths	40
% pupils entering the English Baccalaureate (EBacc)	72
English Baccalaureate Average Points Score	4.22
% of pupils staying in education or employment after KS4	88

Who this set of statistics is for is unclear. Current information can be found on the government website⁴ – which the school identifies. That website is full of statistical detail, which might not suit everyone.

Abbs Cross Academy⁵They offer 2023 results without mentioning subject areas beyond an English and Maths analysis. They offer a link to the government’s website for a league table.⁶ (They are average.)

Sacred Heart of Mary
Meanwhile Havering’s top performing school,⁷shows what should done and provides a template for every school in Havering. Every subject is listed with the outcomes and the number of pupils who sat each examination.

Conclusion

There’s no acceptable explanation why Havering’s schools conceal examination results from parents and taxpayers. Last year this blog wrote about the same issue and ONE school immediately took action. Schools should understand that the publication of results is in their interests. This is especially the case in an era of conspiracy theorists.

Notes

1 How Havering’s Academies Conceal their 2022 GCSE Results – Politics in Havering

2 Woodford County High School For Girls – 2023 Exam Results

3 Hornchurch High School » EXAMINATION PERFORMANCE, 2021-22

4 Secondary – Hornchurch High School – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

5 Achievement And Performance – Abbs Cross Academy The school’s analysis of English and Maths is very technical and beyond most non-educator’s understanding. Effectively it’s meaningless for most parents.

6 All schools and colleges in Havering – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

7 GCSE-RESULTS-SUMMER-2023-v3.pdf (realsmart.co.uk)