Havering’s ultra Brexit MPs, Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell, didn’t swing the vote the Conservatives’ way in the European elections. The electorate ignored their valiant efforts in parliament. Nigel Farage’s ego-driven Brexit Party trounced the Conservatives, who came fourth behind the LibDems and Labour.1 This bodes ill for Romford Conservatives. They were engulfed from the right, by the Brexit party, and the left, by Labour/LibDems/Greens.
Both Julia and Andrew had huge majorities in the 2017 general election but the electorate is fickle.2
Conservatives are seen as hopelessly divided and incompetent, in part, because of the constant opposition to Theresa May’s deal. Havering, which is solidly Conservative, now has a ruling party which is fourth in a national election.
Taking the European and Cranham elections3 together, they point towards old political truths in a new guise. Democracy is about which voters turn up. The current iron grip on Havering’s two parliamentary seats could change, notwithstanding the enormous majorities.4
1 https://www.havering.gov.uk/news/article/583/2019_european_parliamentary_election_results
UKIP did better in the 2014 election than the Brexit party in 2019. They got 34560 votes in 2014 in comparison to Brexit’s 32,165.
2 The 2017 general election result from Canterbury is etched into their psyche. The Conservatives increased their vote by 1.8% but Labour’s vote shot up by 20.5%. Result: a narrow Labour win.
3https://www.havering.gov.uk/news/article/569/cranham_by-election_results
4http://democracy.havering.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=3&RPID=0
UKIP got 20% of the vote in comparison to the Conservatives 28% but only won 7 seats.
Politics in Havering 
If the Ukip vote was added to the Brexit party vote in 2019 it comes to a 1380 more than than the 2014 Ukip vote, I’d heard from the horses mouth the Tories were panicking of their members voting for the Brexit party, I can’t believe this either happened or that several ex Ukip voters stopped voting (Brexit party or Ukip) this time so the Tory vote collapsed, maybe several ex Ukip have moved out the area, so the Tory vote did go to the Brexit party
I know of a dozen ex labour voters who voted for the Brexit party
I never realized the Conservatives only got 28% of the 2014 council vote yet 23 Councillors compared to labour on 17% with 1 Councillor
In neighbouring Barking and Dagenham the conservative’s can get 25% of the vote with zero Councillors ,labour winning the lot with 70% of the vote, but 28%! To get 23% Councillors
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I think that politics are in melt down. What happened is shocking. For the Conservatives to drop from 25%- 2014 Euro elections- to 9% in 2019 is unprecedented. I literally have no idea whether politics will realign themselves in the next general election or whether the Con/Lab will go back to ‘normal’. What I do know is that when people get used to voting against their traditional party those party’s collapse. It’s happened before.
Thank you for your comment.
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