Keith Prince and the Reform Party

Keith is a career politician. He’s spent his life making political calculations which were for his party, the community and himself.¹ In local political terms he’s been very successful.² Keith earns £66,390 as a GLA member plus his Havering allowance of £10,750. His calculation is probable oblivion with the Conservative Party, or, a Reform Party triumph.³

Keith is a career politician. He has his eyes on the Rosindell fiefdom, which is the Romford constituency. Keith licked his lips at Andrew’s nail-biting *victory* in 2024. It was the beginning of a trend. The tectonic plates of British politics have shifted and destroyed old certainties.⁴ The shift will destroy politicians who aren’t agile enough to go with the flow.

ULEZ and Brexit showed the powerful undercurrents of dissatisfaction in Britain. People are taking back control from career politicians who have failed them since 2010. The colonization of lamp-posts for the St George flag is another powerful symbol of a desire for fundamental change. People are tired of career politicians pivoting around focus groups.

Radical change is hated by career politicians. Their cute sound-bites are destroyed and they have to produce a new narrative, which sounds insincere to a sceptical public. Career politicians are a disaster. They live in a bubble, which is self-reinforcing and ignores the wishes and desires of the public. Well now they have a wake-up call.

Keith has gambled and Andrew is a born-again Thatcherite.⁵

Notes

1 Keith Prince vs Damian White: 2022 Conservative Leadership Contest – Politics in Havering

2 Salaries, expenses, benefits and workforce information | London City Hall

3 Havering’s election is in 2026 and the GLA in 2028

4 Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell ~ Back from the Brink, July 2024 – Politics in Havering

5 Andrew Rosindell and the Reform Party – Politics in Havering and see also BREAKING: Havering Has Its First Reform Councillor As Keith Prince Defects. – The Havering Daily

Andrew Rosindell and the Reform Party

Margaret Thatcher divided Conservatives into two groups: One of Us and everyone else. The first group were rewarded. MPs became ministers and received a peerage after loyal service. Everyone else was shunned.

The five Conservative Prime Ministers from 2010 to 2024 worshipped Thatcher and behaved accordingly. They went to Oxford. Andrew went to Marshalls Park comprehensive. He wasn’t One of Us and didn’t get a glittering prize.

Andrew’s been an outsider for 24 years, unlike Julia Lopez.¹ This is soul sapping. A ‘toe-in-the-water’ with the Brexit party and UKIP was by-passed as he judged them to be flaky. Farage, with his third political party, has struck lucky. Reform are storming the polls with Conservatives languishing in third place. Andrew thinks they are finished,

“I think Conservatives and Reform supporters should be engaging with each other and unite …. there is no certainty that the party will bounce back easily and we cannot risk another five years of Labour after the next election.²

Andrew doesn’t believe the Conservatives will get even a ‘dead cat bounce’³ in 2029. He must decide. Leave the sinking ship or cling on? But has Farage peaked too early? That’s the crux of Andrew’s problem.

Decisions! Decisions!

Notes

1 Hornchurch and Upminster’s MP: Julia Lopez – Politics in Havering If she flirted with Reform then the Conservatives really would be in a death spiral.

2 Romford MP Says Its Time Tories And Reform Unite To Defeat Labour. – The Havering Daily

3 Dead Cat Bounce: What It Means in Investing, With Examples

Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell ~ Back from the Brink, July 2024

After the catastrophic general election, Julia and Andrew have reacted differently. They both had 82% reductions in their huge majorities.¹ What lessons did they learn from this experience?

Julia’s response is that she’s now a constituency MP. She’s ditching her nickname Invisible. Her new dynamism has been rewarded with many appearances in the Romford Recorder. Dynamic, caring, constituency work is Julia’s five-year project. She hopes to be the darling of Hornchurch and Upminster in 2029.

Andrew’s response is amnesia. Bad things happened during the last 14 years and they’re all Labour’s fault. Andrew admires Robert Jenrick,² who was Immigration Minister in Sunak’s government.

“For too long, mass migration has gone unchecked, placing unbearable strain on housing, schools, the NHS and on all public services.”³

That Andrew supports anti-immigration politics and Jenrick shows the power of amnesia.

He believes Romford needs red-blooded Conservatism and then he’ll be the darling of Romford once more.

Julia and Andrew suffered from a rampant Reform Party. Their actual strategy is to “really, really” pray Farage’s Reform party implodes. Otherwise, the 2029 election could be terminal for Julia and Andrew.

Notes

1 Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 Romford Recorder 27^th September 2024 p33 Andrew hosted Jenrick at his Romford HQ.

3 loc.cit.

Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024

Havering has hard-core Conservatives, as was demonstrated by Susan Hall trouncing Labour in May, 2024. The General Election result¹ was, as the bookies say, ‘a form result’. But was it?

Julia Lopez

In 2019 she had a majority of 23,308. This evaporated to one of 1,943 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic but when viewed locally, it accurately reflects the electorate. They vote Conservative and hold their noses. HRA have made the constituency a Tory-free zone. Worse, she is a poor constituency MP with no personal support.

Andrew Rosindell

In 2019 he had a majority of 17,893. This evaporated to one of 1,463 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic for a long-standing, hard-working constituency MP. Unlike Hornchurch and Upminster, Andrew’s constituency has a significant number of Conservative councillors. He’s well-known, is an expert campaigner and yet, his result mirrored that of the lack-lustre Julia.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew couldn’t be more different. She’s a political opportunist with a glittering career in the past. He’s an Essex man Tory. Andrew didn’t get a personal vote and Romford had their worst result since 1997.

Havering is changing. In Hornchurch and Upminster, the Reform party, from a standing start, came second. Reform isn’t a political party: They’re a private company owned by Nigel Farage. They’re a PR party tapping into the utter distaste and sense of betrayal that many voters feel about the principal parties. They’re Conservative party ultras who have voters who don’t know what that implies.

HRA are in the same territory. They also reflect the desire for change and have to operate outside their comfort zone. The question is, can they?

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Elections, 2nd May, 2024

Havering is Conservative heartland. Although they appear to be in terminal decline nationally, that is fake news.¹ When everything is against them, their ‘tribe’ rallies round. Susan Hall² and Keith Prince³ romped home with substantial majorities against Labour. Grim national polling wasn’t reflected in Havering.

Susan Hall

Even her best friends wouldn’t describe her as dynamic. Her role was to be a sacrificial lamb facing slaughter. Her memorable ‘policy’ was scrapping ULEZ from “day one”. Despite her simplistic politics, she trounced Sadiq Khan by 32,000+ votes.

Keith Prince

He has been a GLA Assembly member for eight years. He avoided campaigning on his record during those years. This was wise. Keith is chair of GLA’s Transport Committee and Havering has major issues. First and foremost is the 50 year old Gallows Corner flyover, which is a blot on the landscape. Keith’s political strategy is wringing his hands in horror. This was unsuccessful with Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan.

Speculation

Conservatives should be worried about the Reform party – aka UKIP. They got 19,696 votes as a name on a ballot paper. Reform is popular in Havering, being right-wing without policies. Their voters think they can make a difference and they’re right.

Damian White lost in the 2019 general election because of UKIP.⁴It’s impossible to know the impact on Andrew Rosindell but his majority is 17,893. If there’s a general election swing and a right-wing party, then he might be caught in a pincer movement. Julia Lopez’s majority is 23,000+ and only a political tsunami will shift her.

Notes

1 Since 2022 there have been seven defections from the Conservatives to HRA

2 havering_and_redbridge_mayoral_results_2024.pdf (londonelects.org.uk)

3 GLA Elections 2024: Havering and Redbridge Constituency Member results | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering