Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell ~ Back from the Brink, July 2024

After the catastrophic general election, Julia and Andrew have reacted differently. They both had 82% reductions in their huge majorities.¹ What lessons did they learn from this experience?

Julia’s response is that she’s now a constituency MP. She’s ditching her nickname Invisible. Her new dynamism has been rewarded with many appearances in the Romford Recorder. Dynamic, caring, constituency work is Julia’s five-year project. She hopes to be the darling of Hornchurch and Upminster in 2029.

Andrew’s response is amnesia. Bad things happened during the last 14 years and they’re all Labour’s fault. Andrew admires Robert Jenrick,² who was Immigration Minister in Sunak’s government.

“For too long, mass migration has gone unchecked, placing unbearable strain on housing, schools, the NHS and on all public services.”³

That Andrew supports anti-immigration politics and Jenrick shows the power of amnesia.

He believes Romford needs red-blooded Conservatism and then he’ll be the darling of Romford once more.

Julia and Andrew suffered from a rampant Reform Party. Their actual strategy is to “really, really” pray Farage’s Reform party implodes. Otherwise, the 2029 election could be terminal for Julia and Andrew.

Notes

1 Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 Romford Recorder 27^th September 2024 p33 Andrew hosted Jenrick at his Romford HQ.

3 loc.cit.

Havering’s Election: An Undemocratic Democracy?

Regardless of the destruction of the Conservative Party, Labour came second in Romford and third in Hornchurch and Upminster. Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell were re-elected but were rejected by a majority of the electorate.

Julia Lopez

Julia was trounced by the anti-Conservative vote.¹She won her parliamentary seat with 15,260 votes. The other five candidates had 31,651 votes, which is 16,391 more.
Worse, the abstention rate was 37.65% of the 75,421 electorate. Julia became MP with 15,260 votes out of an electorate of 75,421. She won with 20% of the vote.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for her.

Andrew Rosindell

The same analysis applies to Andrew. He became MP with 15,339 votes and 27,808 actively opposing him. Turnout was 60%, which is 29,492 voters. Active and passive opposing votes = 57,300 voters and Andrew just reached the magic 20% needed for victory.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for him.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew are blameless. The British electoral system needs to be changed but won’t be. Change comes when winners cooperate and they like systems that deliver power. Meanwhile Nigel Farage’s Reform Party picked up 4 million votes and five seats. They, like the LibDems and Greens, suffer from the system.

Havering’s local elections are worse, much worse. Turnout was in the range 23.5% to 42.3%, in 2022. No ward achieved a 50% turnout. When do elections stop being democratic? Councillors could be elected with 2% of the vote.

Ludicrous as it seems, this is possible.

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024

Havering has hard-core Conservatives, as was demonstrated by Susan Hall trouncing Labour in May, 2024. The General Election result¹ was, as the bookies say, ‘a form result’. But was it?

Julia Lopez

In 2019 she had a majority of 23,308. This evaporated to one of 1,943 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic but when viewed locally, it accurately reflects the electorate. They vote Conservative and hold their noses. HRA have made the constituency a Tory-free zone. Worse, she is a poor constituency MP with no personal support.

Andrew Rosindell

In 2019 he had a majority of 17,893. This evaporated to one of 1,463 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic for a long-standing, hard-working constituency MP. Unlike Hornchurch and Upminster, Andrew’s constituency has a significant number of Conservative councillors. He’s well-known, is an expert campaigner and yet, his result mirrored that of the lack-lustre Julia.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew couldn’t be more different. She’s a political opportunist with a glittering career in the past. He’s an Essex man Tory. Andrew didn’t get a personal vote and Romford had their worst result since 1997.

Havering is changing. In Hornchurch and Upminster, the Reform party, from a standing start, came second. Reform isn’t a political party: They’re a private company owned by Nigel Farage. They’re a PR party tapping into the utter distaste and sense of betrayal that many voters feel about the principal parties. They’re Conservative party ultras who have voters who don’t know what that implies.

HRA are in the same territory. They also reflect the desire for change and have to operate outside their comfort zone. The question is, can they?

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Hornchurch and Upminster’s MP: Julia Lopez

Julia Lopez’s political career began with her strutting along Downing Street with ‘secret’ papers. Eager photographers who’d been tipped off, zoomed in, making her front page news. Her reward was Hornchurch and Upminster. She’s held it since 2017.

Julia joined the extremist European Research Group (ERG) in parliament. This ideological group had an ‘all or nothing’ view of Brexit. In pursuit of their goals they wrecked Theresa May’s career and Johnson succeeded her. He won in December, 2019 with the slogan Get Brexit Done. Regardless of this, Johnson doesn’t have a Brexit implementation plan and negotiations have stalled. Unless Julia is a True Believer in the ERG view of Brexit, she may be dismayed by this outcome.

Julia became a minister in 2020 and in a Brexit related speech said Britain had a“bright future.” She explained how stalled negotiations would lead to her desired ‘No Deal’.

“As the Prime Minister has set out, there needs to be an agreement with the EU by the time of the European Council meeting on 15 October in order for it to be in force before the end of the transition period on 31 December. By then, if there is no agreement, there will not be a free trade agreement.”** (my emphasis)

(Her statement is ministerial hogwash as negotiations continue as of 14th November, 2020).

Julia’s political career began with brazen opportunism. She’s progressed from destroying Theresa May’s career to ministerial office. Now she’s faced by the 1st January, 2021 cliff edge, where there will, according to Julia, be a “bright future.” Let’s hope her careerism isn’t paid for by the people of Hornchurch and Upminster in higher food prices and delayed medicines.

Notes

* For Julia Dockerill’s (Lopez) ‘accidental-on-purpose’ revelations see https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3979302/No-single-market-Norway-style-deal-Extraordinary-blunder-Downing-Street-FINALLY-gives-glimpse-government-s-Brexit-tactics.html

** Parliamentary speech 5th October 2020

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2020-10-05/debates/915A231C-FE1E-4E7D-A512-060DB8C10F94/details#contribution-2C65C14D-9F0F-4702-B1EC-818A76D41055

Sources

https://www.julialopez.co.uk/news

Relevant blogs from the archive

Havering MP: Julia Lopez: the Brexit Debate, 6th December, 2018

Havering’s Brexit MPs: Are They Conservatives?

Andrew Rosindell, Julia Lopez and Nigel Farage: Three Peas, One Pod

The Bizarre World of Hornchurch and Upminster Politics

This constituency is a safe Conservative parliamentary seat. But it’s also a no-go area for them in local politics. Indeed Conservative candidates have to brand themselves as Resident Association (RAs)to have any chance of success in council elections. The RAs are splintered and don’t have critical mass when it comes to power and influence. As a consequence, the minority Conservative administration has an easy time of it.

Veteran RA councillor, John Mylod, ‘became’ a Conservative prior to the 2018 election after a spat with fellow councillors in St Andrews ward. This ward is an RA stronghold but he still won with a personal vote. Or, maybe, voters didn’t appreciate he’d jumped ship. Harold Wood’s three RA councillors created a working majority for the Conservatives. They were always crypto-Conservatives but being offered lucrative allowances helped them make the crucial decision.

Two wards return Labour councillors. In their heartlands they won five of six seats. The sixth seat went to an Independent novice. The only reliable Conservative ward is Emerson Park, which isn’t rock solid. They lost a seat in 2014 to a UKIP candidate. Then post-2018, Bob Perry found Romford’s councillors too arrogant and he’s now an Independent.

So Julia Lopez MP has a majority of 23,000 in a constituency with only three Conservative councillors. Her seat may not be as solid as it looks. Local politics shows there is dissatisfaction with the Conservatives. Local elections demonstrate that voters are quite prepared to abandon them.