Tag: bankruptcy

Keith Prince’s Aspirations for Havering, 2026-2040

This glossy well-produced document1 is aspirational and strategic. It’s short on detail but outlines things Keith thinks will make Havering a better place. It’s incremental. If you read the booklet looking for firm commitments, you will be disappointed. It is refreshing to read a political document which isn’t devoted to ‘quick-fixes.’

Keith sub-divides the document into a number of headings2,

Our Values

We will put Havering residents first for new homes we build as a Council, for new schools and new jobs. We will put Havering businesses first for new opportunities.

Keith says the Council will use their influence to put Havering residents first. Obviously he can’t insist that businesses employ people from Havering as that is illegal discrimination. But the direction of travel is clear and has implications for employment by the Council itself.

Build Havering

We will deliver the homes (primarily family houses) for Havering families…

Housing is controversial. The key challenge is: what is a ‘family house?’  Keith’s previous statements suggest he means 3-bed semi-detached houses. This conflicts with the need for social housing, which requires high density estates. Social housing is critical in resolving endemic homelessness in Havering.

Grow Havering

Havering is established as one of London’s leading business locations particularly for growth sectors including Data and Digital Services, AI, Robotics, Life Sciences and Logistics.

This aspiration implies a challenge to the sanctity of the Green Belt. Reform’s planning committee will make strategic decisions about the proposed Data Centre site at north Ockendon. This is hinted at but there is already an organised pressure group focused on this issue. The Data Centre is political dynamite.

Improve Havering

We will protect and upgrade our parks and public green areas

Keith is safe with this one. Who will propose ‘unprotected and degraded parks and green areas?’ Absolutely no-one.

Flagship Projects

Financial Recovery

Two words! But a nightmare. Keith could be thwarted by the consequences of the financial destruction of Havering by George Osborne, 2010-16.3 Havering’s government borrowing debt is crippling and may scupper his aspirations. Unless Andy Burnham reconfigures the debt burden, Havering will have Government Commissioners in place by 2028. They don’t do aspirationsavering is likely to have Government Commui

.

They are grimly utilitarian.

Notes

1 The Havering Plan 2024

2 This blog takes a few of the headings and quotes from them to build a critique

3 Osborne’s ‘Age of Austerity’ was a mindless attack on local government by a Conservative extremist. Ten years later everything is worse with additional statutory pressures wrecking Havering’s finances.

Havering Cabinet Meeting, 16th September 2026

Keith Prince (1 hour 10):1 [Havering will be] “A ‘super suburb….” This is Keith’s 2040 Plan, which is full of hyperbole and ignores the perilous financial situation the borough is drowning in.

Bystanders hearing this would, in the normal way of things, give Keith an aspirin and tell him to lie down in a dark room until he felt better. But! This is an insight into his leadership qualities. Later in the meeting Graham Day (31) showed adherence to Keith’s boosterism.

This cabinet meeting was important. Reform councillors aren’t the *New kids on the block* anymore. They’ve been in office for 131 days. They should have command of their departments by now. Alas and alack that wasn’t the case.

Kevin Gill (8) and Terry Brown (23) floundered and dithered and called for help from officers. They hadn’t done their homework and were caught out. Likewise, Robert Whitton (1:04) who made inept political points, which weren’t an introduction to a stellar performance. He relied on officers and was paralysed by the occasion. All three councillors need mentoring. (see Addendum)

Graham Day (31) is garrulous but used his material well and spoke with enthusiasm. His enthusiasm led to over-statements. He denied that Adult Services were flawed in any way and described them as “Superb”. This is Keith’s Havering.

Sue Benjamins (1:24) hadn’t prepared her opening remarks and attempted to speak to the papers. She should have followed Barry Mugglestone’s excellent tactic of thorough preparation. As a consequence, she put an odd ‘gloss’ on the £54.2m government loan facility, saying it reflected an underspend. What she actually meant was that the overspend £11.7m less than anticipated.  This reflects Keith’s delusional economics.

She offered an interesting example of where a capital underspend is a bad thing. The SEND transport budget could be trimmed if the Balgores site was open. And outcomes would improve, which is a double win.

Best Scrutiny: Barry Mugglestone – ably supported by Martin Goode and Matt Stanton

Addendum: Cabinet responsibility

“Council calls upon the Executive Leadership Team to support the Cabinet in achieving these outcomes.” Reform’s amendment to Motion C Council Meeting 2nd September 2026.

I assumed this was an aberration when I wrote the relevant blog2 but after this meeting I’m not sure. It reflects the reality of this Administration’s relationship with Chief Officers, which is subservience.

Notes

1 Annotator Player All times refer to this webcast

2 see Havering Council Meeting, 2nd September 2026 (part two) – Politics in Havering

Havering Council Meeting, 2nd September 2026 (part two)

Motions1

Introduction

Keith Prince (1 hour 44 minutes) did an accurate and tedious nit-picking dissection of the *RULE BOOK*. He enjoys nit-picking. No-one else does.

Motion A: Everyone agreed that Havering, “limit excessive private profits in children’s residential social care across the UK, in alignment with Scotland.”

Motion B: “This Council agrees not to spend valuable council resources on a referendum to leave London.”

Andrew Rosindell was a dark cloud looming over Reform councillors, keeping them on ‘message’. True Believers affirmed their commitment, though some were more slippery than others – step forward, Bailey Nash-Gardner (1:54), Luke Barry (1:55), and Gary Payne (2:02).

The motion introduced a fierce Gillian Ford (1:51), which was refreshing. Cut-and-thrust is always appreciated when it is done well. Three Reform councillors indulged themselves in jeering, which was really a bullying tactic.

Motion C: “Council recognises that adverse childhood experiences, trauma and other life events can affect a resident’s ability to engage with support services, sustain tenancies, maintain employment and participate fully in community life.”

The Reform Group’s Amendment was insane, “Council calls upon the Executive Leadership Team to support the Cabinet in achieving these outcomes.”  (my emphasis)

The Reform Administration asked the Executive Team to cooperate with the policies of councillors. Asked! Keith Prince’s Administration obviously has a strange relationship with the Executive Leadership Team. Councillors agree policies, which must be implemented by the Executive Leadership Team.

Keith worries that the Executive Leadership Team can refuse councillor policies. The Executive Team must follow instructions. If they refuse, they must resign or demand written, legally binding, instructions. Those instructions act as a legal statement that the Executive Leadership Team were under duress and acting in opposition to their professional advice.

Apart from this insanity, the debate was wonderful. There was cross-party agreement on the importance of the motion. Matt Stanton (2:08), Graham Day (2:11) and Keith Prince (2:17) referenced known experiences which added to the texture of the debate. If there is indeed a ‘joined up response’ and recognition of the ‘ecosystem’ of support following this debate, Council can congratulate itself.

Motion D: “Commends the new Administration for their firm and determined action to tackle the ongoing fires, smoke and pollution from Arnold’s Field, Launder’s Lane, and the impact on residents in Rainham.”

This was Stalinist self-congratulation.

Best Motion: Motion C

Best Speech: Gillian Ford

Note

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 02/09/2026 19:00 Motions in full For the webcast Annotator Player All times refer to this site

Havering’s Council Tax: The Rich get Richer

The Council Tax system isn’t fit for purpose.1 People living in multimillion pound houses are winners. They pay tiny amounts of council tax as a percentage of the value of their property.2

Anomalies for expensive houses

A four-bedroom house in Gidea Park is for sale at £975,000.3 It’s band G. In Upminster another four-bedroom house is available for £1.25m4 council band F, which is £515p.a. less. Meanwhile in Emerson Park a five-bedroom house is available for £2m,5 council tax band G. This is twice as expensive as the Gidea Park house and in the same council tax band.

Anomalies for cheap houses

A two-bedroom flat in Rainham is available for £134,0006 council tax band C. In Romford a retirement property is on sale for £90,0007 also band C. The Romford property is one-third cheaper despite being in the same council tax band.

And it goes on and on and on.

The ultimate anomaly

Converting council tax into percentages reveals why it’s a racket.

A five-bedroom house in Emerson Park is available for £2m8 at council tax band H. Its council tax is £4,627. At the other end of the scale is a Park Home9 in band A paying £1,542.

The first property pays 0.23% of the value of the house. The second pays 1.71%, a massive percentage difference. If council tax was based on the property valuation as a percentage, the Emerson Park property would pay £34,200 instead of £4,625. This equalises the amounts paid.

Council tax isn’t a property tax.  It is a thinly disguised crime against the poor.

Notes

1 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

2 For research purposes I surveyed houses for sale until mid-August 2025 on Rightmove and Zoopla. These are headline prices and might increase or decrease but that doesn’t alter the thrust of the discussion.

3 4 bedroom detached house for sale in Main Road, Gidea Park , RM2

4 4 bedroom detached house for sale in The Chase, Upminster, RM14

5 5 bedroom detached house for sale in Woodlands Avenue, Emerson Park, RM11

6 2 bedroom apartment for sale in Blueberry Court, Rainham, RM13 8JY, RM13

7 1 bedroom retirement property for sale in Admiral Lodge, Western Road, Romford, RM1

8 5 bedroom detached house for sale in Ernest Road, Emerson Park, RM11

9 Cummings Hall Lane, Noak Hill… 1 bed park home for sale – £89,995

Havering’s Council Tax 2025-6

Havering Council is bankrupt. The usual explanation is the cost of Adult Services and Homelessness. That’s glib. Council Tax was introduced in 1991 by a panic-stricken Conservative government reeling from the Poll Tax riots. They planned valuation reviews every five years, after which council tax would be recalibrated reflecting property price inflation. No reviews have taken place. Areas with massive property price inflation, like Havering, haven’t had council tax adjustments.

Havering’s Council Tax 2025

In 1991 a £320,000+ band ‘H’ house1 in Havering had a council tax of £1070. This equates to 0.33% of its minimum value.

In 2025 a band ‘H’ property is worth about £2m.3 Council tax for band ‘H’ is £4,627, which is 0.23%. This doesn’t look much but it is a 30% difference.

Council tax has significantly reduced for band ‘H’’ property owners since 1991.

Inflation since 1991

Band ‘H’ houses were valued at £320,000+ in 1991. Using standard inflation, that increased to £733,720 in 2025.4 House price inflation is a multiple of standard inflation. A 1991 £320,000+ house is now £2,157,601,5 an inflation rate of 574%.

Council Tax is a failure

Political cowardice by governments has bankrupted Havering.6 Council tax is a failed mechanism for funding council services.7 Continuing to use 1991 valuations is ludicrous.

Correcting 34 years of inertia will take political courage………I’m not holding my breath.

Notes

1 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

2 Properties For Sale in Emerson Park | Rightmove

4 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

5 House price index | Nationwide

6 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering This was written in 2020 but the analysis is still valid though the examples are historic.

7 George Osborne’s Age of Austerity programme, 2010-16, put the knife to the throat of Havering’s finances and matters more than sub-optimal increases in council tax.

Back to the Future: learning from history

One proposed approach presented to Cabinet is the development of 18 fully equipped modular home units within the area allocated for the final phase of the Waterloo & Queen Street regeneration scheme, in Romford.1

The Blitz left thousands of people homeless. In 19422 Churchill’s government began planning for housing the homeless post-war. He chose prefabricated houses because they were quick to erect. They were kitted out with equipment considered luxurious,

For a country used to the rigours of the outside lavatory and tin bath, the bathroom included a flushing toilet and man-sized bath with hot running water. In the kitchen were housed such modern luxuries as a built-in oven, refrigerator and Baxi water heater, which only later became commonplace in all residential accommodating.3

Post-war prefab housing, which was intended to be ‘temporary’.

The war bankrupted Britain and the American Marshall Plan4 hadn’t begun.There was a shortfall in building materials making the job harder. Prefab houses were an act of genius. They were built on vacant land. With the destruction of London, there were many sites and further east in Romford.5 Notwithstanding the challenges, they pushed forward immediately in 1945-6.

They planned for 300,000 homes with a life expectancy of 10 years but many lasted far longer. Post-war families were given stability for their families.

Havering in 2025 isn’t recovering from war but has a housing crisis. Because of their statutory duty,

“…..the Council was forced to overspend its temporary accommodation budget by £6 million.6

In 1942 Churchill decided housing was too important to leave to market forces. The Attlee Labour government fulfilled his programme by building hundreds of thousands of houses. 40 years later Maggie Thatcher destroyed public housing, unleashing a crisis.

Will modular houses begin a new era of social housing?

Notes

1 Cabinet approve temporary homes solutions to help tackle housing crisis | London Borough of Havering

2 Prefabs in the United Kingdom – Wikipedia

3 loc.cit. See this site for wonderful insights into prefab houses Prefabs – Palaces for the People

4 Marshall Plan | Summary & Significance | Britannica

5 prefab houses in romford – Search Images

6 Cabinet approve temporary homes solutions to help tackle housing crisis | London Borough of Havering

I’m giving a talk: Are Havering’s secondary schools fit for purpose?

22nd April 2025 at 8pm at Fairkytes Hall, Hornchurch for the Fabian Society

There will be a Q&A session afterwards

The Consequences of Conservative Extremism, 2010-24

Havering is bankrupt.

Ray Morgon, HRA Leader of Council, is outraged because Havering is a victim. The Conservatives destroyed local government between 2010 and 2024. Ray Morgon and the new Labour government are victims. They’re making decisions they hate and despise.

There has been 51.4% of inflation since 2010.1 In 2010, Band D Council Tax was £1505.2 This increased to £2208 in 2024,3 up 46.7%. Council tax has therefore, more-or-less, increased with general inflation.

Bankruptcy is a direct result of government policy.

In 2010, Havering was centrally funded with £70m annually. In 2024, this had fallen to less than £2m. A 97% decrease. Conservative governments introduced funding based on specific criteria. The baseline for grants was 2010. The world changed but the baseline remained inflexible.

The demography of Havering shows startling changes.4 Havering has more young and old people than in 2010. Both groups are heavy consumers of council services. The inflexible baseline has damaging outcomes with Adult and Children’s Services budgets out of control. There isn’t any *control* because they’re demand led and can increase in a moment.

Havering isn’t alone. The spectre of bankruptcy is haunting local authorities. The consequences of Conservative government policies are lethal.5 Ray Morgon has an £88m problem. Rachel Reeves’s problem is a gigantic £7.8bn. She has to fill the national funding gap. Her challenges are dominated by the NHS, Education and Defence. The Conservative legacy is catastrophic.

Ray Morgon’s decision to borrow £88m to meet current revenue expenditure was the result of force majeure. Both he and Rachel Reeves are victims of chronic economic mismanagement.

Notes

1 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

2 110209agenda_feb.pdf

3 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

4 JSNA Demography Chapter 2023 v0.3A.pdf esp. pp6-7

5 Fair funding review modelling tools | Local Government Association

HRA Teeter On The Brink, 26th February 2025

The budget debate concluded dramatically as HRA were punished for poor political judgement. The Maggie Thatcher approach, ‘There is no alternative,’ nearly cost them power.

Ray Morgon has inherited the wreckage of George Osborne’s Austerity programme. Havering’s borrowing might increase by £88m to pay for adult and children’s social care along with the homelessness crisis. Everyone knows that’s expensive but no-one knows how much because it’s demand led.  

The discussion about Havering’s £200m budget pivoted around food waste and libraries. David Taylor (1 hour 47)1 said HRA made political choices. The choices are to close three libraries or introduce the food waste collection six months earlier than required.

The Conservatives demanded that food waste collection begins on 1st April 2026. This saves £1.27m.2 By not supplying bin liners a further £270,000 is saved. (See addendum) Three libraries could have their closure paused for a year.3

HRA went to public consultation on closure. 83% voted against but HRA’s ‘Maggie Thatcher Tendency’ led them to ignore the consultation. HRA have forgotten they’re in a minority. The vote on Labour’s amendment was a sharp reminder. The vote tied at 24:24 and HRA won on the casting vote of the Mayor.

Seven councillors were absent, including former Conservative Leader Damian White. If he’d turned up HRA would have faced a vote of confidence and possibly lost power.

Philip Ruck (1:08)4 taunted HRA with being in the pocket of the officers. And the papers confirm he has a point. The Labour amendment led to this comment from the principal officer,

“Although the saving is financially viable, as the Council’s S151 Officer, I am unable to recommend this.”

Amazing!

S151 officers only advise whether amendments make financial sense. Philip said, “Officers advise and politicians decide.” HRA have neither the confidence or ability to reject officer advice. They tried to defend the politically indefensible.

Addendum: Labour’s amendment (edited)

Proposal. The Labour Group proposes the following budget amendments: That the saving closing South Hornchurch Library is reversed

That the saving closing Harold Wood Library is reversed

To reduce the Capitalisation Direction

That Gidea Park Library is re-purposed for alternative use

Total costs. This would be financed by: Removal of costs of bin liners from the Food Waste collection £0.270m

Source (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 26/02/2025 19:30 p983

Best Speech: David Taylor

Notes

1 Annotator Player All times relate to this webcast

2 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 26/02/2025 19:30 p981

3 Martin Goode Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part one) – Politics in Havering At 58 minutes said that these were headline savings and didn’t include decommissioning costs.

4 Annotator Player

Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part two)

Background

Political groups nominated speakers to set out their propositions1 and general debate followed. There were 12 speeches2 and this gives a flavour of the debate.

General Debate

Michael White (Con) began (1hour 05) with, “He didn’t want to bring politics into the debate.” Michael believes everything is political. He said a pause in introducing the Food Waste collection would save the libraries. This is irrefutable.

Philip Ruck (Cranham RA) said HRA don’t understand their budget as it’s set by officers. He said borrowing £88m to put £5m into reserves is ludicrous. (£1m costs £50K p.a. in interest.)

Keith Prince (Con) said, “Politics don’t matter’. Councillors panicked, wondering who this imposter was. Keith, if it was him, identified savings which earn money like increasing the number of planning officers. He’s a fan of Harold Wood library and likes the police and CCTV.

Ray Morgon (HRA) Defended his budget quite well. He favours lobbying. A triumph of hope over experience.

Barry Mugglestone (HRA) He loves ‘law and order’ policies and liners for caddy bins. His argument for bin liners was feeble.

Gillian Ford (HRA) She got dewy eyed about libraries she’d visited 35 years ago with her children. Everyone wondered if she’d been in one since the 1990s. Apart from saying Gidea Park library was poor in the 1990s, that was it.

Graham Williamson (HRA) He should write his speeches to prevent confusion to himself and his audience. He tried, and failed, to trash Opposition amendments by saying the Finance Director was against them. He was, of course, wrong.

(Four HRA cabinet members spoke consecutively.)

Martin Goode (East Havering RAs) As soon as he spoke about Harold Wood library he was interrupted by Gillian. He failed to make a good point.

Brian Eagling (East Havering RAs) He denounced increased charges on football pitches. He was shouted down by Gillian and Barry. His good point wasn’t made.

(HRA really, really don’t like East Havering RAs and don’t conceal it.)

Robert Benham (Con) denounced the lack of ambition in the budget. He found it unbelievable HRA were borrowing their way ‘out’ of debt with £200m by 2026.

Jane Keane (Labour) Agreed with Keith Darvill’s tour d’horizon, which was compelling and depressing in equal measure.

Judith Holt (Con) She dislikes misery and feels councillors should recognise that Havering is attractive for people from other parts of London.

James Glass (HRA) He made an honest assessment of the budget. He showed how HRA councillors are tortured by decisions like closing libraries.

Best Speech: James Glass

Best Havering patriot: Judith Holt

Notes

1 Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part one) – Politics in Havering

2 Annotator Player This is in speech order beginning with White and ending with Glass.