Havering’s Cabinet, 10th April, 2024

The Climate Change debate, Item 7,¹ is critical for Havering but was trivialised. It’s difficult to believe cabinet members had read the agenda. The council intends to make cross-department responses through nine ‘petals’, whatever they are. Apart from Keith Darvill and Ray Morgon, none of the cabinet offered any comments. The report updated the 2021 position.

The ‘debate’ was surreal. Rainfall is increasing by 3.5% a year and Keith Prince (18 mins) decided the solution to the overwhelmed drainage system is water butts. (A 3.5% increase doubles Havering’s rainfall in 20 years.) Keith loves water butts and wouldn’t give it a rest. Martin Goode (29 mins) winged it and offered a rerun of his numerous ‘Golden Oldie’ speeches. Unusually he hadn’t done his homework.

A consequence of greater rainfall is flooding. The management of flooding is expensive both in capital and revenue. Less obvious are significant increases in insurance costs for the council, businesses and householders. Some flooding is due to driveways and forecourts not having drainage points, which are an obligation. The council have insufficient enforcement officers so the obligation is ignored. Blocked drainage grates are a perennial problem in water management. The contract needs better management.

Interestingly there are a considerable number of grants available. Havering has received £3.5m in grants (see 30 minutes).²

Keith Darvill (25 mins) summed up by saying flood alleviation is very expensive. He appears to mean the existential crisis that is Climate Change is too expensive to solve. Humanity should take in on the chin! And disappear.

Absent Oscar Ford, Gillian Ford and Barry Mugglestone

Notes

1 Public reports pack 10th-Apr-2024 19.30 Cabinet.pdf (havering.gov.uk) Item 7 p85ff

2 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) Times relate to this webcast.

Havering Council: The Merry-Go-Round

Ray Morgon cobbled an administration together from Havering’s many Residents’ Associations (RAs) in 2022.¹ They were rebranded Havering Residents’ Association. His second coup was a coalition with Labour. He’d filled the power vacuum left by the Conservatives and took power

And then the Merry-Go-Round began.

Sarah Edwards, Jacqueline McArdle and Sue Ospreay joined HRA a few weeks after being elected as Conservatives in 2022. Ray Morgon doesn’t care why. What’s important is they landed in HRA. The voters of Rainham weren’t consulted.

John Tyler is a Refusenik. He dislikes Labour and didn’t join the coalition, opting for ‘independence’ (or at least that’s how the story goes). Cranham is a hotbed of dissatisfaction. Phillip Ruck left HRA creating a political party² with John. He wants the Finance cabinet post and won’t get it, so why not rock the boat? The voters of Cranham weren’t consulted.

Robby Misir joined HRA after many years as a Conservative councillor. The end of Damian White’s pot-of-gold politics might have been a push factor. Who knows? Could self-interest have motivated him? The voters of Marshalls and Rise Park weren’t consulted.

St Andrew’s ward has stopped being boring. Paul Middleton, Gerry O’Sullivan and Bryan Vincent have fallen out. Paul isn’t in RA newsletters any more but remains in the cabinet. Is HRA strong enough to impose discipline on these apparently warring factions? Voters will be consulted in 2026.

Addendum

Three Romford Conservatives have joined HRA, this week, to escape that toxic zone. They are husband and wife team John and Philippa Crowder along with Christine Smith. Is this a reverse take-over by Romford who lust for power but can’t get it? This makes it seven Conservatives fleeing their party since 2022.
Notes

1 HRA = Havering Residents Association

2 Cranham Residents Association Independent Group

Havering Council Meeting, 27th March 2024

The Conservatives had a humdinger of a motion for debate (see Addendum). It challenged the HRA/Labour *solution* to the budget deficit.¹This naïve commentator waited for fireworks from political heavyweights debating the future of Havering.

What should have happened

Keith Prince would denounce the £54m loan as reckless folly, mortgaging the future. He pointed out that £54m @7% for 20 years creates a stonking £68m² in interest payments, more than doubling the original debt. Keith could continue that the loan ‘kicked the can down the road’. In 2026 everything would be the same with Adult, Children’s Services and Homelessness turbo-charging the deficit. What, Keith thundered rhetorically, would Ray Morgon do then? Borrow another £54m?

Ray Morgon would angrily riposte that defending government funding was bizarre. In 2010, Havering’s grant was £70m and in 2023, £1.9m. Meanwhile, after 14 years of government mis-management, inflation added 47% to costs.³ Therefore, Havering needs a £103m grant just to stand still! Additionally, the council had unfunded responsibilities. Homelessness came from government policies with enormous costs for the council. Ray might finish by saying everything will be different in two years’ time.

What did happen

Ray Morgon and Keith Prince agreed not to have a debate and went home two hours earlier than usual.

Addendum: Conservative Motion

This chamber calls on the council to release to the public the full letters, from the Government Ministers and from the Leader, regarding the Capitalisation Directive. The chamber calls on the Government to provide the funding as a grant instead of a loan.⁴

Best speech: None

Runner-up: None

Best sarcasm: Barry Mugglestone

Notes

1 Havering Council: Budget Setting – 28th February, 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 It might not be, we haven’t seen the T&Cs yet. Actually the money is ‘drawn’ down over the next two years so the £68m is calculated for 18 full years of interest.

3 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

4 Public reports pack 27th-Mar-2024 19.30 Council.pdf (havering.gov.uk) p117

Romford’s Brewery Car Park and Pricing Theory

Increasing car parking charges is political dynamite for Havering’s councillors. They have to increase charges because of impending bankruptcy but want to avoid alienating voters.

None of the councillors have run multi-site carparks according to their Register of Interest¹ statements. Yet they make commercial decisions worth millions of pounds! This is a recipe for failure.

Both photos taken on the 27th March 2024 mid afternoon

The Brewery car park has massive capacity but is half empty. Modern pricing theory² will solve this challenge. Calibrating price to demand is familiar and used by many companies. This includes the Brewery car park which increases prices on Saturdays. The car park also charges extra for convenience. The surface car park is significantly more expensive than the four levels of the multi-story section.

Increasing demand is a win-win outcome. More usage equals more income without increasing the cost base. What’s not to like?

The Brewery car park is adjacent to a railway station and centrally zoned for retail, commuters and office workers. They are priced out. A more aggressive and sophisticated pricing regime should be introduced. A season ticket with six entries for £35 could be very attractive and an even more keenly priced monthly ticket likewise.

The Brewery Multi-story Car Park is in wonderful location and a commercial flop. Why?

Notes

1 mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk) This is Mandy Anderson’s, which was chosen because she’s first on the list. Every councillor has a statement.

2 Uber cabs vary prices almost minute by minute depending on demand. As do the airlines and many other companies. For the Brewery carpark see Plan Your Visit – Brewery Romford (thebreweryromford.com) accessed 29^th March 2024 The surface carpark is 50% more expensive than the multi-story for 2 hours.

Havering’s People Overview and Scrutiny Committee, 5th March, 2024 (part two)

This agenda included a Housing item and the School Performance analysis. The latter is the focus of this blog.

Matt Stanton (1 hour47)¹expressed concerns about how wide the variations in achievement between schools are. He asked the Director what was needed to rectify this problem. Trevor Cook replied ‘Context’ was needed to understand the issue. This is pivotal as it implies underachievement is inevitable. It chimed with remarks about fortunate authorities who suffered less from Covid-19 and had superior funding.

Praising Hall Mead and Redden Court damaged his argument. In 2019 both were below average.²They’re now average. This happened during five challenging years. Their performance has improved in the Covid-19 and Funding Crisis years.

The 2019 list of eleven below average schools has reduced to six in 2024.⁴ Emerson Park has dropped into the ‘below average’ group since 2019. A third of Havering’s secondary schools are below average (6 out of 12) and five schools left the 2019 list.

Matt’s concerns were echoed by Frankie Walker, Mandy Anderson and Judith Holt. Judith believed every Havering school should be above average. She refuted Trevor Cook’s response about Covid-19 and Funding. Her actual doubts related to whether his explanations were correlation or causation. All of Havering’s schools share the same challenges but nonetheless there are massive differences in outcomes.

Trevor Cook is soothing. However, members were in a combative mood looking for action. Some academies are successful but others are weak. A third of Havering’s schools are below average, which is far too many.

Notes

1 Agenda for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee on Tuesday, 5th March, 2024, 7.00 pm | The London Borough Of Havering Go to webcast and then to one hour 47 for the beginning of his contribution

2 Havering and Redbridge: A Tale of Two Boroughs – Politics in Havering 29^th Nov 2019

3 All schools and colleges in Havering – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk) This gives the current status of every school in Havering.

4 Schools leaving the 2019 list are Abbs Cross, Hornchurch High, Royal Liberty, Redden Court and Hall Mead

Havering’s People Overview and Scrutiny Committee, 5th March 2024 (part one)

This committee is a tragic commentary on the failure of three unnamed councillors to fulfil their obligations. There are three vacancies on this committee, two years after the 2022 election.¹

The People committee should have 12 members. It has nine. Two HRA and an East Havering RA councillor have let the side down. This damages the committee’s ability to do its statutory duty. Topic groups can’t be formed because there are too few councillors to fill places.

Six HRA councillors aren’t on any of the three Overview and Scrutiny Committees. They are: Councillors Edwards, Glass, Godwin, Misir,² Williams and Wood. In the six months from 19^th September 2023, five councillors had a maximum commitment of five meetings.³John Wood’s commitment was three meetings.

Remembering that councillors are paid £200 a week, this ‘workload’ isn’t onerous. The vacancies on the People committee could be filled without inconveniencing anyone. Meanwhile, Darren Wise, East Havering RA, hasn’t got a place on any Overview and Scrutiny committee. He will fit in beautifully on the People committee to make up the numbers.

Overview and Scrutiny is central to local democracy. It is outrageous that this committee isn’t at full strength. Havering is being sold short.

Addendum: Attendance

Ray Morgon and Gillian Ford should get a grip. Two HRA members* were absent without substitutions. Given HRA’s two vacancies they were actually minus four councillors.

*Jacqueline McArdle and Julie Wilkes

Notes

1 Agenda for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee on Tuesday, 5th March, 2024, 7.00 pm | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Robby Misir has just joined HRA and so the sympathetic figure should be five.

3 Councillors attendance summary, 19 September 2023 – 13 March 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering Council: Budget Setting – 28th February, 2024

Question: Havering is going bankrupt.¹ What did councillors do in the budget?

Answer: Dug a deeper financial hole.

(They took a government loan of £54m, without increasing Council Tax to pay the £3.4m annual interest therefore adding to the shortfall.)

Chris Wilkins (11 minutes)² His dreadful speech showed a tragic lack of awareness.

Keith Prince (29) Two minutes of ‘Thank you’ name checks was ‘padding’. A more-or-less content free speech followed.

Keith Darvill (44) The government loan is expensive – £3.4m in interest – but the ‘only’ option. Otherwise, he made sound political points.

Martin Goode (56) His speech was hesitant and expressed dismay at the loan proposition.

Phillip Ruck (1 hour 05) He discussed the loan’s implications. The £54m will be consumed in two years followed by a death spiral!

Judith Holt (1:33) She pointed out the iniquity of the Residents Parking Permit for those living in terraced houses without off-street parking.

Barry Mugglestone (1:39) Oblivious to budget problems. He loves 30 minutes free car parking in Hornchurch, where he lives, and £900,000 for five police officers.

Mandy Anderson (1:44) A considered speech. The budget is a ‘valiant effort’, which is damning it with faint praise.

David Taylor (1:47) He said the budget involved choices. He illustrated this with the million-pound subsidy for Hornchurch carparking.

Martin Goode (1:53) He liked the idea of government commissioners. Nothing would change as the council had no control anyway. The loan was dreadful.

Keith Darvill (1:58) Havering should grow the economy and, therefore, get more council tax. This is ‘a wish and a prayer’ economics.

Keith Prince (2:03) More nit-picking.

Ray Morgon (2:08) Summary remarks claimed it was a “budget of necessity”, which sort-of conceded Goode’s point.

Best Speech: Phillip Ruck

Runner-ups: Mandy Anderson and David Taylor

Audacious Proposition: Dilip Patel – a lottery to pay off the £54m shortfall

Wooden Spoon: Chris Wilkins

Notes

1 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering This is four years old but the principal points hold good

2 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) Time refers to when speech began

Havering, Barking and Dagenham and The Attainment Gap, 2023

Providing great schooling is the single most important thing we can do to help any child from a disadvantaged background succeed. It’s also the single most important thing we can do to boost the long-term productivity of our economy George Osborne’s Budget speech in full (ft.com) 2016

Education is the, “single most important thing” (see above) for disadvantaged students and the national economy. George Osborne funded the Pupil Premium (PP), which, in 2023, had a £2.9bn budget as an investment.¹ Schools are allocated £1,035 per student from PP funds. They are expected to close the attainment gap because it is a negative in human and economic terms.

The ‘attainment gap’ is based on failing to achieve Grade 5 GCSE in English and Maths because of poverty. It is used by the government in their analysis of results.² There are shocking variations between boroughs in their achievement. Students in Redbridge are more than twice as likely to get the Gold Standard as those in Havering.³ (see graph below)

Barking and Dagenham is the fifth most deprived borough in England⁴whilst its neighbour Havering is prosperous. Many schools have a successful learning environment for disadvantaged students. Other schools, apparently, expect them to fail by not meeting their needs.

Havering’s 653 Year 11 disadvantaged students in 2023 achieved a ‘Gold Standard’⁵ pass rate of 27%. Barking and Dagenham’s 939 disadvantaged students achieved a 38% pass rate. Eleven percentage points is a chasm. If Havering’s schools matched Barking and Dagenham’s, the success rate would soar. Put simply, it equates to an additional 68 passes for Havering’s Year 11s in 2023.

All of Havering’s schools are academies who are accountable for these disastrous results. The academies are entirely responsible for educational outcomes.

Notes

1 SN06700.pdf (parliament.uk)

2 Compare the performance of schools and colleges in England – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) This is an invaluable resource and is relatively straight-forward.

3 Havering’s GCSE Attainment Gap, 2023 – Politics in Havering See also Havering and Redbridge’s Disadvantaged Secondary Students – Politics in Havering ‘Gold Standard’ as it is a principal gateway qualification post-16

4 IoD2019_Statistical_Release.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk) See especially map 2 on p12

Havering’s GCSE Attainment Gap, 2023

GCSE Grade 5 English and Maths is as crucial for disadvantaged students as for all other youngsters. Unfortunately, disadvantaged students do so badly in some schools, it’s as if they’re victims of a conspiracy.¹

The Gold Standard for GCSE is ‘Grade 5 English and Maths’. This is the benchmark used to define the attainment gap. It’s ‘Gold’ because it impacts on post-16 opportunities where success is a game changer. Regardless of the excellence of other GCSE results students must have Grade 5 English and Maths to progress to ‘A’ level for example.

St Edwards is the only Havering school with a level playing field for disadvantaged students.

The Human Cost

In 2023, 653 disadvantaged students sat GCSE. The national success result for all students is 45.3%.² This benchmark means 295 disadvantaged students should have achieved the Gold Standard in Havering. Their actual results are 175 Gold Standard passes (27%). 120 students were denied many post-16 opportunities because their school didn’t level-up the achievement gap by using government funds efficiently.

(If St Edwards is used as the benchmark, Havering’s attainment gap increases to 151 students.)

Government funding for disadvantaged students

Schools with disadvantaged students receive £1,035 per student Pupil Premium (PP) funding. ‘Disadvantaged’ means receiving ‘Free School Meals’ or being ‘Looked After’. The money is paid directly to schools as they’re trusted to use the funds wisely and ‘level-up’ achievement.³ The minimum the government paid Havering’s 18 schools for Year 11s, 2022-3, is £678,249. Most of that funding wasn’t used efficiently as can be seen from the table above.

The Attainment Gap: Marshalls Park and Emerson Park

Both schools achieved 45% ’Gold Standard’ results for students in general but utterly failed disadvantaged students with a ‘success’ rate of 16% and 17% respectively.

Emerson Park don’t publish exam results but state, “Emerson Park Academy is, once again, celebrating an outstanding set of GCSE results.” (my emphasis)
Marshalls Park don’t publish their results either. They say, “We believe that we provide an academic education, that is grounded in strong literacy and numeracy….” (my emphasis)³

The government’s PP funding stream for Year 11 disadvantaged students is £46,575 for Marshalls Park and £48,645 for Emerson Park. Neither the government or Year 11 disadvantaged students got ‘value-for-money’. It’s clear PP funding isn’t used to the best effect. Both schools have strategies which need an urgent revisit with external experts.

The Attainment Gap: OFSTED

The attainment gap is not discussed in OFSTED reports nor is the use of Pupil Premium funding.⁴

Notes

1 The-Forgotten-Third-Interim-Report-March-2019.pdf (ascl.org.uk) This research focuses on Grade 4 and is less than what is used for this discussion. Grade 4 is an entry level qualification and is discounted for ‘A’ level courses.

2 Key stage 4 performance, Academic year 2022/23 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

3 Emerson Park Academy – A message from Mr McGuinness regarding GCSE Results This relates to 2022 there is nothing for 2023 even though the data was accessed February 2024. See also Marshalls (marshallspark.org.uk)

4 Marshalls Park 50148108 (ofsted.gov.uk) See also Emerson Park 50193985 (ofsted.gov.uk)

Andrew Rosindell’s Missing 21 Months

“A man, aged in his 50s, was arrested in May 2022 on suspicion of indecent assault, sexual assault, rape, abuse of position of trust and misconduct in public office.

“A thorough investigation has been carried out by detectives. They concluded that the evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors.¹

Andrew has been completely exonerated.²

The Conservative parliamentary party is facing an existential threat from sleaze. Johnson’s government fell after a failed cover-up of Chris Pincher’s homosexual attack, which he did in public when drunk. On the 15^th February 2024, Peter Bone’s safe seat collapsed into Labour’s hands. He’d been found guilty of bullying and a homosexual offence.³The Conservatives were desperate to avoid another by-election.⁴

Andrew was taken into custody for very serious offences followed by two years of investigations. The Conservatives and Andrew had a ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’. He stayed away from parliament whilst on police bail. His exclusion period was 21 months during which time he remained a Conservative MP and was paid accordingly.

Andrew’s office issued a statement declaring him to be ‘completely exonerated.’⁵ ‘Completely exonerated’ isn’t right. The police statement said the, “…evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors “. The implication is there was evidence but not enough for a prosecution. Andrew has been ‘exonerated’ but not ‘completely’.

Notes

1 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell CLEARED after being arrested for ‘sexual offences & misconduct in public office’ – The Sun | The Sun

2 BREAKING: Andrew Rosindell MP cleared following investigation. – The Havering Daily

3 Recall petition for suspended Wellingborough MP Peter Bone opens – BBC News

4 Apart from Bone and Pincher there have been six Conservative MPs excluded from parliament for mostly homosexual offences recently.

5 EXONERATED | English meaning – Cambridge Dictionary