Category: MP

Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024

Havering has hard-core Conservatives, as was demonstrated by Susan Hall trouncing Labour in May, 2024. The General Election result1 was, as the bookies say, ‘a form result’. But was it?

Julia Lopez

In 2019 she had a majority of 23,308. This evaporated to one of 1,943 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic but when viewed locally, it accurately reflects the electorate. They vote Conservative and hold their noses. HRA have made the constituency a Tory-free zone. Worse, she is a poor constituency MP with no personal support.

Andrew Rosindell

In 2019 he had a majority of 17,893. This evaporated to one of 1,463 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic for a long-standing, hard-working constituency MP. Unlike Hornchurch and Upminster, Andrew’s constituency has a significant number of Conservative councillors. He’s well-known, is an expert campaigner and yet, his result mirrored that of the lack-lustre Julia.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew couldn’t be more different. She’s a political opportunist with a glittering career in the past. He’s an Essex man Tory. Andrew didn’t get a personal vote and Romford had their worst result since 1997.

Havering is changing. In Hornchurch and Upminster, the Reform party, from a standing start, came second. Reform isn’t a political party: They’re a private company owned by Nigel Farage. They’re a PR party tapping into the utter distaste and sense of betrayal that many voters feel about the principal parties. They’re Conservative party ultras who have voters who don’t know what that implies.

HRA are in the same territory. They also reflect the desire for change and have to operate outside their comfort zone. The question is, can they?

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Elections, 2nd May, 2024

Havering is Conservative heartland. Although they appear to be in terminal decline nationally, that is fake news.1 When everything is against them, their ‘tribe’ rallies round. Susan Hall2 and Keith Prince3 romped home with substantial majorities against Labour. Grim national polling wasn’t reflected in Havering.

Susan Hall

Even her best friends wouldn’t describe her as dynamic. Her role was to be a sacrificial lamb facing slaughter. Her memorable ‘policy’ was scrapping ULEZ from “day one”. Despite her simplistic politics, she trounced Sadiq Khan by 32,000+ votes.

Keith Prince

He has been a GLA Assembly member for eight years. He avoided campaigning on his record during those years. This was wise. Keith is chair of GLA’s Transport Committee and Havering has major issues. First and foremost is the 50 year old Gallows Corner flyover, which is a blot on the landscape. Keith’s political strategy is wringing his hands in horror. This was unsuccessful with Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan.

Speculation

Conservatives should be worried about the Reform party – aka UKIP. They got 19,696 votes as a name on a ballot paper. Reform is popular in Havering, being right-wing without policies. Their voters think they can make a difference and they’re right.

Damian White lost in the 2019 general election because of UKIP.4 It’s impossible to know the impact on Andrew Rosindell but his majority is 17,893. If there’s a general election swing and a right-wing party, then he might be caught in a pincer movement. Julia Lopez’s majority is 23,000+ and only a political tsunami will shift her.

Notes

1 Since 2022 there have been seven defections from the Conservatives to HRA

2 havering_and_redbridge_mayoral_results_2024.pdf (londonelects.org.uk)

3 GLA Elections 2024: Havering and Redbridge Constituency Member results | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering

Conservative Councillors Savaged by MP

Andrew Rosindell, Romford MP, is an expert on Conservative councillors. He lashed out at them saying they do “Literally nothing.”1 In his eyes they do nothing for either their constituents or, worse, the Conservative party. He’s personally suffered from their idleness with increased workload.

Councillors have Town Hall commitments that aren’t onerous. Analysing Town Hall meetings for April, shows that Andrew is correct: many councillors do “Literally nothing”. There are few meetings and attendance is far from 100%.

Six committee meetings were scheduled for April and three were cancelled.2 If there had been full attendance at those three meetings a maximum of 19 councillors were involved.3 Seven councillors were absent.4 36 councillors weren’t scheduled to attend any committee meetings.

Andrew Rosindell says Conservative councillors don’t do ward casework5 and don’t attend Town Hall meetings either.6 Ward casework is unmonitored and it’s up to councillors whether they work hard or not. Conservative councillors might be uniquely idle but it’s unlikely.

Where councillors are monitored is in their attendance at Town Hall meetings. It’s probable that slacking off there is evidence about their overall commitment.

Notes

1 Romford Recorder 19th April 2024 p4 One outcome of this outburst was three Conservative councillors defecting to HRA. To be fair he did name two that were OK.

2 Agenda for Planning Committee on Thursday, 18th April, 2024, 7.30 pm | The London Borough Of Havering Planning committee

Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) Joint Health o/s committee

Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) cabinet   Two councillors attended this meeting as observers. They were Keith Prince and Martin Goode and both spoke. The council’s attendance list has an opportunity for noting additional non-slated attendance but on this occasion doesn’t do so in either case.

3 Monthly meetings calendar – April 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering There is a full list of meetings for the year. During April 43 councillors didn’t attend any scheduled meetings at all.

4 None of the Conservative councillors on the Planning committee turned up. John and Philippa Crowder might have been on strike or, in between parties. Additionally, Oscar Ford, Gillian Ford, Barry Mugglestone, Carol Smith and Christine Smith were absent from their meetings. This is a 38% absenteeism rate.

5 Romford Recorder ibid

6 Councillors attendance summary, 29 October 2023 – 22 April 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering Every councillor is listed noting their attendance over the last six months. Damian White has attended one meeting out of a possible six in the last six months

Andrew Rosindell’s Missing 21 Months

“A man, aged in his 50s, was arrested in May 2022 on suspicion of indecent assault, sexual assault, rape, abuse of position of trust and misconduct in public office.

“A thorough investigation has been carried out by detectives. They concluded that the evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors.1

Andrew has been completely exonerated.2

The Conservative parliamentary party is facing an existential threat from sleaze. Johnson’s government fell after a failed cover-up of Chris Pincher’s homosexual attack, which he did in public when drunk. On the 15th February 2024, Peter Bone’s safe seat collapsed into Labour’s hands. He’d been found guilty of bullying and a homosexual offence.3 The Conservatives were desperate to avoid another by-election.4

Andrew was taken into custody for very serious offences followed by two years of investigations. The Conservatives and Andrew had a ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’. He stayed away from parliament whilst on police bail. His exclusion period was 21 months during which time he remained a Conservative MP and was paid accordingly.

Andrew’s office issued a statement declaring him to  be ‘completely exonerated.’5 ‘Completely exonerated’ isn’t right. The police statement said the, “…evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors “. The implication is there was evidence but not enough for a prosecution. Andrew has been ‘exonerated’ but not ‘completely’.

Notes

1 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell CLEARED after being arrested for ‘sexual offences & misconduct in public office’ – The Sun | The Sun

2 BREAKING: Andrew Rosindell MP cleared following investigation. – The Havering Daily

3 Recall petition for suspended Wellingborough MP Peter Bone opens – BBC News

4 Apart from Bone and Pincher there have been six Conservative MPs excluded from parliament for mostly homosexual offences recently.

5 EXONERATED | English meaning – Cambridge Dictionary

Andrew Rosindell: Romford’s Absentee MP

Background

Andrew was arrested in May, 2022 for various alleged offences.1 His police bail has been extended five times from then until August, 2023.

When bailed he made a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with the Conservative Chief Whip to distance himself from parliament. Neither expected police bail to last 15 months.

Politics

Non-attendance from parliament for 15 months is unique. It begs the question whether Romford is represented as it should be. A pragmatic solution, to what was hoped to be a temporary embarrassment, has become a nightmare. Andrew’s absence means the Chief Whip and he have denied Romford their democratic rights.
Worse, Romford Conservative party members were deceived during Andrew’s reselection process. They didn’t know he was persona non grata 2 in the parliamentary Conservative party. As a long-standing MP with an excellent track record he could have been reselected anyway.

Police Bail

Is 15 months of police bail an abuse of the system?

“The officers making the decision to extend police bail must be satisfied that the investigation by police has been conducted diligently and expeditiously, and that keeping the person on bail whilst the investigation is conducted is both necessary and proportionate.”3 (my emphasis)

Five extensions are shocking.

Conclusion

Andrew deserves better than this and so do the people of Romford.

Notes

1 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell has not attended parliament for more than a year since arrest (thetimes.co.uk)

2  persona non grata meaning – Search (bing.com)

3 How long can I be kept on police bail? – TV Edwards Solicitors see also The Perplexing Reality of Extended Police Bail | London’s Defence Lawyers (stuartmillersolicitors.co.uk)

Havering Councillor: Damian White (Havering-atte-Bower)

Damian has had a stellar career, which is now ending. First elected in 2010, he became deputy-Leader, 2014-18, and Leader of the Council, 2018-22. In 2019 he nearly became an MP in the Boris Johnson landslide.1 That was his finest hour.

Damian controlled Conservative councillors with pot-of-gold politics. The allowance system was manipulated to ‘reward’ them. He relied on three RA2 councillors, from Harold Wood, for his working majority. They too were richly rewarded.

The 2022 election was disastrous for Damian. Havering’s new coalition Administration3 didn’t include Conservatives. They lost power for the first time in 20 years. Collectively, losing the election cost them hundreds of thousands of pounds in allowances. Damian lost thousands of pounds as well as his status as Leader. It’s debatable which was worse.

Since the 2022 election, Damian has become an absentee councillor even though he remains Leader of the Conservatives. His attendance at committees is an appalling 33%.4 It could be that he is having a gigantic sulk. What’s certain is that if he was an employee he’d be sacked.

The Conservative group’s Leadership election in May should see Damian replaced by someone more dynamic or, at the very least, visible. A likely successor is Keith Prince, seen here with Andrew Rosindell at a St George’s Day celebration.

 

Notes

1 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering

2 RA = Resident Association

3 Havering Residents’ Association as the major group along with Labour to make numbers up to 28

4 Attendance record – Councillor Damian White | The London Borough Of Havering This is for the last six months up to April 2023

Andrew Rosindell’s Big Idea

Andrew1 isn’t a political thinker. His Big Idea is Havering2 joining Essex and damn the consequences. It’s Brexit politics transferred to Havering.

Andrew’s ‘independence’ programme will upset elderly voters who will lose the Freedom Pass.3 ‘Independence’ would end it forever. Popping into London for a cheap day out would be a memory. People from Brentwood are jealous of London’s Freedom Pass, especially since the Elizabeth Line started. The other main benefit is it increases Havering’s house prices.

Independence won’t protect Havering from ‘Mayor Khan’s dangerous [housing] plans…’,4 because there aren’t any dangerous plans. Businessmen make commercial decisions about housing. High rise blocks happen if there’s a market for them.

Andrew says Havering’s motorists are, ‘…being fleeced to the tune of £12.50 a day…due to Khan’s ULEZ tax.’ This is a lie. 85% of Havering’s motorists won’t pay a penny. A typical car in Havering is compliant. The Mayor is implementing a Public Health policy and using a charge to induce compliance. ULEZ is aimed at no polluting cars and clean air.

Andrew wants Havering to, “…be independent of the political structures of Greater London.” This from a man who wanted to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London in 2020 and failed! Shaun Bailey defeated Andrew for the candidacy. Shaun was then defeated by Sadiq Khan in 2020.

Andrew ends his Big Idea rant by saying, “….Havering [should] take back control’. Now where have we heard that one before? And didn’t it end well?

Notes

1 12 years as a Havering councillor and 22 years as Romford’s MP with an overlapping year. He’s had one year’s political experience 33 times.

2 He means Romford. Hornchurch was independent pre-1964 and was bitter about being taken over by Romford. Andrew was born in 1966 and is advocating someone else’s fantasy.

3 The Freedom Pass is very expensive for local authorities. Havering spends about £8 million p.a. Havering and the Freedom Pass – Politics in Havering

4 Romford Recorder ‘Make Havering Independent’ p34 14th April 2023 All quotations are from this article.

Havering’s Politicians and ULEZ

ULEZ involves explaining complicated science with long-term health outcomes. ULEZ’s costs are brutally simple. Car owners with 18-year-old cars suffer immediately. Therefore, there’s a conflict between short-term pain and long-term benefits. This is toxic for politicians. Havering’s politicians have chosen to placate the ‘victims’ of short-term pain at the cost of Public Health.

MPs

Jon Cruddas says1 ULEZ is will be a good idea after the cost-of-living crisis finishes.

Julia Lopez says she wants to continue her climb up the political ladder.

Andrew Rosindell says Havering should exit London and ULEZ

Councillor Leaders

Keith Darvill supports Cruddas with ULEZ pushed into an unknown future date.

Ray Morgon thinks ULEZ isn’t right because Havering only has a ‘few’ hotspots.2

Damian White is currently in a Trappist Monastery.

Their Mutual Problem

No councillor or MP acknowledges ULEZ will reduce Havering’s three-a-week death rate.

No councillor or MP acknowledges 100s of children suffer from lung impairment caused by air pollution.

Havering’s Legal Obligation

Our [the government] landmark Environment Bill places a duty on us to set at least two air quality targets by October 2022, including an ambitious, legally-binding target to reduce fine particulate matter – the most damaging pollutant to human health. We know local authorities are best placed to address the issues they face in their areas. We look forward to receiving innovative ideas for ways to reduce emissions, help communities understand how they can limit their exposure to air pollution, and promote cleaner, greener alternatives.

Source Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the UK – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

The impact of Fine Particulate Matter

Studies have found a close link between exposure to fine particles and premature death from heart and lung disease. Fine particles are also known to trigger or worsen chronic disease such as asthma, heart attack, bronchitis and other respiratory problems…..An association between mothers’ exposure to fine particles and birth defects has also been established by several reports.

Source What is PM2.5 and Why You Should Care | Bliss Air

Havering’s Politicians and ULEZ

Havering’s politicians won’t admit there’s a Public Health air pollution crisis. They deny the science and impacts of air pollution, which are well established. The NHS can’t save the lives of 178 people p.a. and only mitigates child lung impairment. That’s the political challenge.

Havering’s politicians are dodging the decision-making bullet. They’ve made the ‘decision’ to maintain the status quo ante.3 As a result, 100s of children will pay an awful price in impaired lung capacity. Meanwhile older people die gruesome deaths from respiratory failure.

Havering’s politicians are spineless because they never discuss the consequences of their position. They never say how many deaths and lung impairment events are acceptable in their protection of those owning elderly cars. The unstated position is that short-term political advantage is more important than Public Health.

Notes

1 “says” This is a paraphrase of the implications of public statements. For Julia this is satire as it is for Andrew. None of them actually said what I say they said. Keith and Ray said things which are loosely connected to this section. Damian isn’t in a Trappist Monastery.

2 £9 million fund opens for local projects to tackle air pollution – Defra in the media (blog.gov.uk) accessed 17th February 2023. The government clearly think that the time for action has arrived and look forward to Councils putting their best foot forward. This is in addition to ULEZ.

3 NetFlix’s film ‘Don’t Look Up’ was based on the idea that if you couldn’t see a threat it didn’t exist

Havering’s Overview and Scrutiny Board, 13th October 2022

There was a stench of despair in Havering’s discussions about the 2023-4 budget.1 The public consultation process will fail because residents don’t understand council budgets. They also think this budget is rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic.

Beginning with George Osborne’s Age of Austerity, 2010, local government has been starved of funds. His insane ‘policy’ was compounded with zero Council Tax increases followed by inflation ‘caps’. Havering’s lost a minimum of £70m annually since 2010 not including the ‘lost’ revenue from actual inflation increases.

The decline in funding has been accompanied by increased  responsibilities in Children and Adult services. These services consume 70% of the budget, making an inexorable push towards a Section 114 notice which means decision making is put in the hands of the government.2 Havering’s CEO was bleakly frank about this possibility. He said current section 114 notices applied to imprudent, badly managed councils but future notices would hit well run councils like Havering, which had run out of resources.3 In brief, Conservative government policies are bankrupting local government.

The council will lobby MPs and ministers. The CEO held out little hope but he’d work hard to get Levelling-Up money.

Addendum: How councillors reacted

Gerry O’Sullivan drew contributions from every councillor. Questions ranged from the abrupt, Mandy Anderson, (@21 minutes)4 to windbag, Philip Ruck (@50 minutes). Philip asked the killer section 114 question, eliciting the important CEO response. David Taylor’s (@71 minutes) dog-whistle questions didn’t get the preferred answers. Damian White worked hard as ‘lead’ opposition councillor. The others seemed over-whelmed by the complexity of it all.

Notes

1 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com)

2 CP524_financial_sustainability_Oct_2021.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

3 Hear the comment @ 55 minutes

4 This is when she began speaking