Category: MP

Havering’s 2024 General Election: The battlefield

The 2024 election produced a landslide victory for Labour but not in Havering. Surprisingly the Conservatives weren’t the beneficiaries of Labour relative ‘failure’. An analysis of the results shows the Reform Party spoiled the night for Labour and the Conservatives. Statistical clutter1 has been deleted to leave the percentage vote for the three principal parties. (The aggregate results, if you want them, have been published by the council.2)

Beam Park

Labour 60.6%; Conservative 13.9%; Reform Party 13.7%

Cranham

Conservative 34%; Reform Party 29.1; Labour 26.7%

Elm Park

Labour 37.7%; Reform Party 27.4%; Conservatives 19.4%

Emerson Park

Conservatives 43.5%; Reform Party 26.1; Labour 21.3%

Gooshays

Labour 34%; Reform Party 28.9%; Conservatives 27.3%

Hacton

Conservative 33.1%; Reform Party 29.6; Labour 22.7%

Harold Wood

Conservative 29.8%; Labour 29%; Reform Party 28.5%

Havering-atte-Bower

Conservative 33%; Labour 31.1%; Reform Party 22.3%

Heaton

Labour 32.6%; Reform Party 28.4%; Conservative 25.9%

Hylands

Conservative 34.9%; Labour 30.4% Reform Party 21.6%

Marshalls Park

Conservative 40.5%; Labour 27.1%; Reform Party 20.2%

Mawneys

Conservative 37.1%; Labour 29.7% Reform Party 22.6%

Rainham

Labour 35.7%; Conservatives 27.6%; Reform Party 24.5%

Rush Green

Labour 35.5%; Conservatives 29.4%; Reform Party 22.2%

St. Albans

Labour 37.4%; Conservative 28%; Reform Party 21.9%

St Andrews

Conservative 32.7%; Reform Party 29%; Labour 26.6%

St Edwards

Labour 34.6%; Conservatives 34%; Reform Party 22.2%

South Hornchurch

Labour 39.9%; Reform Party 26.2%; Conservatives 21.5%

Squirrels Heath

Conservative 38.7%; Labour 29%; Reform Party 21.5%

Upminster

Conservatives 38.2%; Reform Party 27.5%; Labour 22.4%

Notes

1 https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/07/the-ultimate-2024-general-election-breakdown Many thanks to David A. for sending me this site

2 General Election 2024: Results | London Borough of Havering These are the overall results

Havering’s Councillors: Their Sick Leave Culture

….U.K. the rate of employee absence has risen to its highest level in a decade…[it] has reached 4% in 2023, with an average of 4.8 days lost per employee per year. (my emphasis) Source: Absence trends in the United Kingdom: Strategies for effective management – WTW (wtwco.com)

The 2009 ‘expenses scandal’ revealed how British MPs ripped off the taxpayer. Some MPs were jailed. Nonetheless, parliamentary rules protected their pensions. (see Addendum One) Havering’s councillors are angels in comparison.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Absenteeism amongst councillors is triple the British norm (see Addendum Two). Between 19th January and 13th July 2024, councillors were scheduled for 440 attendances at meetings.1 One councillor could have attended 13,2 whilst the least number was four.3 (Four meetings equate to one every six and a half weeks.)

Councillors, collectively, missed 58 meetings –  equivalent to 13.2%. Non-attendance makes scrutiny of policies weak and toxic policies are sometimes implemented. Absenteeism destroys ‘Institutional Memory’ a crucial factor in good decision-making. Havering’s democracy is weakened by indolence.

Attendance at council meetings is one part of a councillor’s duties. Many councillors are active in their communities.4 Obviously this is just one publicly available. Other councillors might be equally assiduous but unavailable for scrutiny.

The principal point is councillors only  have a legal duty to attend a meeting every six months. This weakens their commitment.

Addendum One: MPs and their pensions

….former MPs who were jailed in the wake of the parliamentary expenses scandal are also understood to remain entitled to full pension benefits despite their records.

MP pension rules mean there are almost no circumstances under which an MP can be stripped of their pension, with the exception of the most extreme crimes such as treason…. Source MP expenses cheats and sex offenders keep taxpayer-funded pensions (msn.com)

Addendum Two: Council Meeting, 24th July 2024

The shocking absenteeism amongst councillors reached unbelievable levels at this meeting. Of Havering’s 55 councillors 11 were absent = 20%. This is quadruple the national average.

Source: Agenda for Council on Wednesday, 24th July, 2024, 7.30 pm | London Borough of Havering

Notes

1 Councillors attendance summary, 19 January 2024 – 13 July 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering Legally they must attend one council meeting every six months or they forfeit their seat See also Does Havering have too many councillors? – Politics in Havering

2 Chris Wilkins (He missed two, which is 15% absenteeism.)

3 David Godwin and Christine Vickery (they both had full attendance)

4 ‘The heating and hot water have failed, affecting hundreds of residents. The Council is aware of issues but seems reluctant to fix them.’ – The Havering Daily This report is about the community work of Cllrs McKeever and Stanton in Beam Park

Havering’s Election: An Undemocratic Democracy?

Regardless of the destruction of the Conservative Party, Labour came second in Romford and third in Hornchurch and Upminster. Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell were re-elected but were rejected by a majority of the electorate.

Julia Lopez

Julia was trounced by the anti-Conservative vote.1 She won her parliamentary seat with 15,260 votes. The other five candidates had 31,651 votes, which is 16,391 more.
Worse, the abstention rate was 37.65% of the 75,421 electorate. Julia became MP with 15,260 votes out of an electorate of 75,421. She won with 20% of the vote.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for her.

Andrew Rosindell

The same analysis applies to Andrew. He became MP with 15,339 votes and 27,808 actively opposing him. Turnout was 60%, which is 29,492 voters. Active and passive opposing votes = 57,300 voters and Andrew just reached the magic 20% needed for victory.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for him.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew are blameless. The British electoral system needs to be changed but won’t be. Change comes when winners cooperate and they like systems that deliver power. Meanwhile Nigel Farage’s Reform Party picked up 4 million votes and five seats. They, like the LibDems and Greens, suffer from the system.

Havering’s local elections are worse, much worse. Turnout was in the range 23.5% to 42.3%, in 2022. No ward achieved a 50% turnout. When do elections stop being democratic? Councillors could be elected with 2% of the vote.

 Ludicrous as it seems, this is possible.

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024

Havering has hard-core Conservatives, as was demonstrated by Susan Hall trouncing Labour in May, 2024. The General Election result1 was, as the bookies say, ‘a form result’. But was it?

Julia Lopez

In 2019 she had a majority of 23,308. This evaporated to one of 1,943 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic but when viewed locally, it accurately reflects the electorate. They vote Conservative and hold their noses. HRA have made the constituency a Tory-free zone. Worse, she is a poor constituency MP with no personal support.

Andrew Rosindell

In 2019 he had a majority of 17,893. This evaporated to one of 1,463 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic for a long-standing, hard-working constituency MP. Unlike Hornchurch and Upminster, Andrew’s constituency has a significant number of Conservative councillors. He’s well-known, is an expert campaigner and yet, his result mirrored that of the lack-lustre Julia.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew couldn’t be more different. She’s a political opportunist with a glittering career in the past. He’s an Essex man Tory. Andrew didn’t get a personal vote and Romford had their worst result since 1997.

Havering is changing. In Hornchurch and Upminster, the Reform party, from a standing start, came second. Reform isn’t a political party: They’re a private company owned by Nigel Farage. They’re a PR party tapping into the utter distaste and sense of betrayal that many voters feel about the principal parties. They’re Conservative party ultras who have voters who don’t know what that implies.

HRA are in the same territory. They also reflect the desire for change and have to operate outside their comfort zone. The question is, can they?

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Elections, 2nd May, 2024

Havering is Conservative heartland. Although they appear to be in terminal decline nationally, that is fake news.1 When everything is against them, their ‘tribe’ rallies round. Susan Hall2 and Keith Prince3 romped home with substantial majorities against Labour. Grim national polling wasn’t reflected in Havering.

Susan Hall

Even her best friends wouldn’t describe her as dynamic. Her role was to be a sacrificial lamb facing slaughter. Her memorable ‘policy’ was scrapping ULEZ from “day one”. Despite her simplistic politics, she trounced Sadiq Khan by 32,000+ votes.

Keith Prince

He has been a GLA Assembly member for eight years. He avoided campaigning on his record during those years. This was wise. Keith is chair of GLA’s Transport Committee and Havering has major issues. First and foremost is the 50 year old Gallows Corner flyover, which is a blot on the landscape. Keith’s political strategy is wringing his hands in horror. This was unsuccessful with Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan.

Speculation

Conservatives should be worried about the Reform party – aka UKIP. They got 19,696 votes as a name on a ballot paper. Reform is popular in Havering, being right-wing without policies. Their voters think they can make a difference and they’re right.

Damian White lost in the 2019 general election because of UKIP.4 It’s impossible to know the impact on Andrew Rosindell but his majority is 17,893. If there’s a general election swing and a right-wing party, then he might be caught in a pincer movement. Julia Lopez’s majority is 23,000+ and only a political tsunami will shift her.

Notes

1 Since 2022 there have been seven defections from the Conservatives to HRA

2 havering_and_redbridge_mayoral_results_2024.pdf (londonelects.org.uk)

3 GLA Elections 2024: Havering and Redbridge Constituency Member results | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering

Conservative Councillors Savaged by MP

Andrew Rosindell, Romford MP, is an expert on Conservative councillors. He lashed out at them saying they do “Literally nothing.”1 In his eyes they do nothing for either their constituents or, worse, the Conservative party. He’s personally suffered from their idleness with increased workload.

Councillors have Town Hall commitments that aren’t onerous. Analysing Town Hall meetings for April, shows that Andrew is correct: many councillors do “Literally nothing”. There are few meetings and attendance is far from 100%.

Six committee meetings were scheduled for April and three were cancelled.2 If there had been full attendance at those three meetings a maximum of 19 councillors were involved.3 Seven councillors were absent.4 36 councillors weren’t scheduled to attend any committee meetings.

Andrew Rosindell says Conservative councillors don’t do ward casework5 and don’t attend Town Hall meetings either.6 Ward casework is unmonitored and it’s up to councillors whether they work hard or not. Conservative councillors might be uniquely idle but it’s unlikely.

Where councillors are monitored is in their attendance at Town Hall meetings. It’s probable that slacking off there is evidence about their overall commitment.

Notes

1 Romford Recorder 19th April 2024 p4 One outcome of this outburst was three Conservative councillors defecting to HRA. To be fair he did name two that were OK.

2 Agenda for Planning Committee on Thursday, 18th April, 2024, 7.30 pm | The London Borough Of Havering Planning committee

Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) Joint Health o/s committee

Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) cabinet   Two councillors attended this meeting as observers. They were Keith Prince and Martin Goode and both spoke. The council’s attendance list has an opportunity for noting additional non-slated attendance but on this occasion doesn’t do so in either case.

3 Monthly meetings calendar – April 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering There is a full list of meetings for the year. During April 43 councillors didn’t attend any scheduled meetings at all.

4 None of the Conservative councillors on the Planning committee turned up. John and Philippa Crowder might have been on strike or, in between parties. Additionally, Oscar Ford, Gillian Ford, Barry Mugglestone, Carol Smith and Christine Smith were absent from their meetings. This is a 38% absenteeism rate.

5 Romford Recorder ibid

6 Councillors attendance summary, 29 October 2023 – 22 April 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering Every councillor is listed noting their attendance over the last six months. Damian White has attended one meeting out of a possible six in the last six months

Andrew Rosindell’s Missing 21 Months

“A man, aged in his 50s, was arrested in May 2022 on suspicion of indecent assault, sexual assault, rape, abuse of position of trust and misconduct in public office.

“A thorough investigation has been carried out by detectives. They concluded that the evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors.1

Andrew has been completely exonerated.2

The Conservative parliamentary party is facing an existential threat from sleaze. Johnson’s government fell after a failed cover-up of Chris Pincher’s homosexual attack, which he did in public when drunk. On the 15th February 2024, Peter Bone’s safe seat collapsed into Labour’s hands. He’d been found guilty of bullying and a homosexual offence.3 The Conservatives were desperate to avoid another by-election.4

Andrew was taken into custody for very serious offences followed by two years of investigations. The Conservatives and Andrew had a ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’. He stayed away from parliament whilst on police bail. His exclusion period was 21 months during which time he remained a Conservative MP and was paid accordingly.

Andrew’s office issued a statement declaring him to  be ‘completely exonerated.’5 ‘Completely exonerated’ isn’t right. The police statement said the, “…evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors “. The implication is there was evidence but not enough for a prosecution. Andrew has been ‘exonerated’ but not ‘completely’.

Notes

1 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell CLEARED after being arrested for ‘sexual offences & misconduct in public office’ – The Sun | The Sun

2 BREAKING: Andrew Rosindell MP cleared following investigation. – The Havering Daily

3 Recall petition for suspended Wellingborough MP Peter Bone opens – BBC News

4 Apart from Bone and Pincher there have been six Conservative MPs excluded from parliament for mostly homosexual offences recently.

5 EXONERATED | English meaning – Cambridge Dictionary

Andrew Rosindell: Romford’s Absentee MP

Background

Andrew was arrested in May, 2022 for various alleged offences.1 His police bail has been extended five times from then until August, 2023.

When bailed he made a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with the Conservative Chief Whip to distance himself from parliament. Neither expected police bail to last 15 months.

Politics

Non-attendance from parliament for 15 months is unique. It begs the question whether Romford is represented as it should be. A pragmatic solution, to what was hoped to be a temporary embarrassment, has become a nightmare. Andrew’s absence means the Chief Whip and he have denied Romford their democratic rights.
Worse, Romford Conservative party members were deceived during Andrew’s reselection process. They didn’t know he was persona non grata 2 in the parliamentary Conservative party. As a long-standing MP with an excellent track record he could have been reselected anyway.

Police Bail

Is 15 months of police bail an abuse of the system?

“The officers making the decision to extend police bail must be satisfied that the investigation by police has been conducted diligently and expeditiously, and that keeping the person on bail whilst the investigation is conducted is both necessary and proportionate.”3 (my emphasis)

Five extensions are shocking.

Conclusion

Andrew deserves better than this and so do the people of Romford.

Notes

1 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell has not attended parliament for more than a year since arrest (thetimes.co.uk)

2  persona non grata meaning – Search (bing.com)

3 How long can I be kept on police bail? – TV Edwards Solicitors see also The Perplexing Reality of Extended Police Bail | London’s Defence Lawyers (stuartmillersolicitors.co.uk)

Havering Councillor: Damian White (Havering-atte-Bower)

Damian has had a stellar career, which is now ending. First elected in 2010, he became deputy-Leader, 2014-18, and Leader of the Council, 2018-22. In 2019 he nearly became an MP in the Boris Johnson landslide.1 That was his finest hour.

Damian controlled Conservative councillors with pot-of-gold politics. The allowance system was manipulated to ‘reward’ them. He relied on three RA2 councillors, from Harold Wood, for his working majority. They too were richly rewarded.

The 2022 election was disastrous for Damian. Havering’s new coalition Administration3 didn’t include Conservatives. They lost power for the first time in 20 years. Collectively, losing the election cost them hundreds of thousands of pounds in allowances. Damian lost thousands of pounds as well as his status as Leader. It’s debatable which was worse.

Since the 2022 election, Damian has become an absentee councillor even though he remains Leader of the Conservatives. His attendance at committees is an appalling 33%.4 It could be that he is having a gigantic sulk. What’s certain is that if he was an employee he’d be sacked.

The Conservative group’s Leadership election in May should see Damian replaced by someone more dynamic or, at the very least, visible. A likely successor is Keith Prince, seen here with Andrew Rosindell at a St George’s Day celebration.

 

Notes

1 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering

2 RA = Resident Association

3 Havering Residents’ Association as the major group along with Labour to make numbers up to 28

4 Attendance record – Councillor Damian White | The London Borough Of Havering This is for the last six months up to April 2023