Analysing Havering’s politics is as futile as nailing jelly to the ceiling. Councillors change sides and voters are ignored. Will ‘Carry on Splintering,’ lead to a third administration in four years?
Havering Residents’ Association 2022: 19 councillors: NOW: 26
HRA came second in 2022 and formed a coalition with Labour. Seven Conservative and a Labour councillor have joined them, leading to a Minority Administration. HRA lost a councillor when Philip Ruck defected to Cranham RAs. [UPDATE: 2nd July 2024 a defection from HRA to Conservatives. This is playground politics.]
Semi-detached councillor: Paul Middleton doesn’t appear on St Andrew’s HRA literature.
Conservative: 2022: 23 councillors: NOW: 16
Romford Conservatives have suffered badly from three Conservative Prime Ministers: Boris ‘Partygate’ Johnson, Liz ‘Bonkers’ Truss and Rishi ‘D Day’ Sunak. Councillors have caught the vibe and seven have defected.
Semi-detached councillor: Damian White with two attendances in six months.1
Labour: 2022: 9 councillors: NOW: 8
Labour came third and entered a coalition with HRA, which collapsed when Paul McGeary defected. Will Labour be an effective opposition?
East Havering RAs: 2022: 3 councillors: NOW: 3
They supported the Conservatives, 2018-22. Tiny, but could be pivotal in the future.
Cranham RAs : 2022: 1 councillor: NOW: 2 councillors
They are ‘True Believer’ Residents. They should fear the Data Centre proposition, which is toxic for their core supporters.
Summary: Disgracefully, nine councillors have changed sides without by-elections.2
2024-6: Ray Morgon’s Captain Birdseye impression at Annual Council,3 conceals a ruthless politician. Keeping HRA together will be difficult as the Labour government maintains the current funding regime. Removing limits on increases in Council Tax leaves HRA exposed. Substantial increases in Council Tax will be necessary to avoid another ruinous loan.
Can HRA take the pressure? Probably not.
Notes
1 Attendance record – Councillor Damian White | The London Borough Of Havering
2 The churn is 16%
3 Havering’s Annual Council, 22nd May 2024 – Politics in Havering
Politics in Havering 
In the May 2022 local elections only 2 HRA councillors (Emerson Park) were elected as HRA and then another 17 assorted RA councillors jumped ship without holding by-elections and joined the HRA after being elected under different party names and then after making election promises not to do so they formed a coalition with 9 Labour councillors to take control of the council.
It was my idea to promote HRA as an association to improve non-Labour and Conservative representation, (Cllr Morgan and Williamson wanted to call it Residents Association Movement RAM), but as an association of Independent groups not as a new borough-wide political party with manifesto and party whip, particularly as the ‘non-political’ RAs offered no alternative to the Lab/Con Uniparty!
As its proved with the new administration pursuing the same cuts-policies as the previous conservative administration under guidance from the same Chief Executive all fearful of losing allowances /wages by taking effective action against the poor government funding.
And now another 8 councillors (7 Con + 1 Lab) (25 in total) have jumped ship and joined HRA without holding by-elections to form a minority administration with no plans to take effective legal action and/or call in the administrators but (bless them) relying on the goodwill of a new government to improve funding.
Also, after being elected as UCRA Cllr Ruck joined HRA but then resigned to become an Independent and then joined the Residents Association Independent Group, so 3 changes without holding by-elections, a record entry?
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HRA is registered as a political party, which was created after the 2022 election to form the administration. But you are quite right most of the current HRA were elected as part of their *home* RA group.
Labour seem to have said that there will be no new money for local government. This implies massive Council Tax increases in 2026-7 if not before.
There is no *effective* legal action against government funding as government budgets aren’t subject to judicial review.
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Election law requires all party names to be registered if they are to appear on ballot papers otherwise candidates can only appear as Independent or no description. This allows an individual to capture a popular cause, at least at elections, if registering the right name.
The name Havering Residents Association (HRA) was registered long before 2022, but was seldom used to contest elections or hold meetings.
However it was useful to use the name to register the residents associations name in areas where there were no existing residents association and/or where the existing residents association didn’t want to contest elections and/or remain independent of HRA.
Standing RA candidates all across the borough is the behaviour of a political party even though the RAs have always claimed not to be a political party!
For example, on the council some of the different independent associations, when acting together, sat as a “Residents Group” without a party whip, but now most of them sit as a “Havering Residents Association Group” with a party whip. This shows they have morphed from being independent groups into one political party.
However the name HRA could appear to the public as the senior name for all residents associations in Havering which not all groups wanted, hence why e.g. the Harold wood councillors make a point of disassociating themselves from HRA.
In short you are right to call the HRA a political party, but you’ll find this isn’t what the Hornchurch, Upminster and Cranham councillors are telling their residents who barely mention HRA.
Also I think your right to say councils can’t Judicial Review government budgets and I never said they should. JRs are of limited value anyway, No, I propose legally challenging the legislation on which the budgets are based.
For example, the funding formulas are biased in favour of inner-London and where introduced over 40 years ago in response to the Lord Scarman report into the Brixton riots and no longer make sense, if they ever did!
Therefore use the 2010 equality Act and anti-discrimination legislation to challenge this biased funding on which the, at present, legal government budgets are based.
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HRA is an umbrella party. I doubt that it will survive intact in a genuine pressure moment. Two possibilities: 1) Council Tax increases 2026-7 2) The data centre controversy
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Update. Cllr McArdle jumps ship again and means 26 out of 55 councillors (47%) have now jumped ship without holding by-elections, but as some have jumped ship more than once it makes, so far, 30 jumps overall (55%)!
It’s allowed but is it ethical? Albeit, is a by-election needed if reboarding an abandoned ship?
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These constant defections are turning Havering’s politics into a laughing stock. This is the *democratic deficit* in action.
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