Havering’s Budget and Rishi Sunak: 2023

Havering’s lobbying of government is the triumph of hope over experience. Underfunding is government policy and is non-negotiable. Havering’s Chief Executive said some ministers treated him as if he was a ‘naughty school boy’ (@ 23minutes).¹Naughty like Oliver Twist was ‘naughty’.

Havering’s government grant: 2010 = £70 million

Havering’s government grant: 2023 = £1.9 million

Havering’s outcome:…………….: 2023 = Minus £68.1 million

The Bank of England calculates inflation for 2010-22 at 41.7%²

Therefore 2010’s £70 million in 2022 £££s is £99.18 million

Havering’s real 2023 shortfall is £97.28 million

Rishi’s policies rely on people not understanding maths³

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Cabinet Meeting: 14^th December 2022

The meeting had a budget item. Councillors are listed in speaking order. (Starting @ 14 minutes)

Chris Wilkins: Chris doesn’t understand strategy or analysis. His jog-trot through ‘highlights’ was unhelpful.

Gillian Ford: She injected passion into her speech and cares.

Oscar Ford: He gave a very competent review of an OFSTED report. Unfortunately, the prevailing counsel of despair continued.

Graham Williamson: He was woefully unprepared for a budget meeting.

Keith Darvill: A brief brilliant intervention about the impact of decision-making by the government. His political point was welcome.

Ray Morgon: He’s self-depreciating and as Leader needs to be positive. Cabinet members should be warned about being unacceptably casual.

Paul McGeary, Paul Middleton and Barry Mugglestone: All three were mute.

Notes

1 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com)

2 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

3 So it’s surprising that he’s keen that everyone studies maths until 18 Rishi Sunak wants all pupils to study maths to age 18 – BBC News

Havering’s Million Pound Mistake, 2019-22

Damian White, Havering’s Council Leader in 2019, signed a contract with the MetPolice¹ costing a million pounds over three years. He did this for bragging rights in the ‘fighting’ crime Conservative agenda. The contract paid for Havering to have five additional police officers who clearly couldn’t make a difference. The contract wasn’t just about policing, it was also a PR stunt.

Havering is,

“….among the top 10 safest cities, and the 1,978th most dangerous location out of all towns, cities, and villages.”²

The Conservatives’ fantasy is that only they can be trusted to fight crime. Their posturing will cost taxpayers an additional million pounds to the MetPolice GLA precept.³ Havering’s only significant crime area relates to cars. The five police officers can’t make a difference because they don’t have cars. (Police cars were an optional extra in Damian’s contract.)

The RM13 postcode area had 267 offences for every 10,000 vehicles – more than double the national average of 121.⁴(my emphasis)

The MetPolice contract is flaky and should wither away. Unfortunately, if it isn’t renewed, Ray Morgon’s HRA/Labour administration will be vilified as ‘Soft on crime.’

Notes

1 FINAL Cabinet report MET s92 Police FINAL.pdf (havering.gov.uk) p5 See also my critique Posts ‹ Politics in Havering — WordPress.com
2 Havering Crime and Safety Statistics | CrimeRate
3 md2954_appendices.pdf (london.gov.uk) item2
4 Havering car crime hotspots revealed – Rainham and South Hornchurch ‘worst’ | Romford Recorder Andrew’s constituency, “Romford was next with a rate of 227 in RM1.” This is almost double the national average.

Havering’s Overview and Scrutiny Board, 13th October 2022

There was a stench of despair in Havering’s discussions about the 2023-4 budget.¹ The public consultation process will fail because residents don’t understand council budgets. They also think this budget is rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic.

Beginning with George Osborne’s Age of Austerity, 2010, local government has been starved of funds. His insane ‘policy’ was compounded with zero Council Tax increases followed by inflation ‘caps’. Havering’s lost a minimum of £70m annually since 2010 not including the ‘lost’ revenue from actual inflation increases.

The decline in funding has been accompanied by increased responsibilities in Children and Adult services. These services consume 70% of the budget, making an inexorable push towards a Section 114 notice which means decision making is put in the hands of the government.²Havering’s CEO was bleakly frank about this possibility. He said current section 114 notices applied to imprudent, badly managed councils but future notices would hit well run councils like Havering, which had run out of resources.³ In brief, Conservative government policies are bankrupting local government.

The council will lobby MPs and ministers. The CEO held out little hope but he’d work hard to get Levelling-Up money.

Addendum: How councillors reacted

Gerry O’Sullivan drew contributions from every councillor. Questions ranged from the abrupt, Mandy Anderson, (@21 minutes)⁴ to windbag, Philip Ruck (@50 minutes). Philip asked the killer section 114 question, eliciting the important CEO response. David Taylor’s (@71 minutes) dog-whistle questions didn’t get the preferred answers. Damian White worked hard as ‘lead’ opposition councillor. The others seemed over-whelmed by the complexity of it all.

Notes

1 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com)

2 CP524_financial_sustainability_Oct_2021.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

3 Hear the comment @ 55 minutes

4 This is when she began speaking

Havering Councillor: Sue Ospreay (Rainham and Wennington)

Sue’s a maverick politician.¹ She was a Conservative elected in May, 2022 and joined HRA² four months later. Conservative voters thought they’d ousted Resident Association councillors but Sue was Conservative in name only. Despite voting for change, Conservatives now continue to have Residents’ Association councillors.

Sue’s a maverick in other ways too. Her Register of Interests document is blank, simply signed at the bottom. The Register is a legal requirement, which must be filled in within in 28 days of an election. The question is, does a blank answer constitute ‘an answer’?

Question One asks for, “Any employment, office, profession or vocation carried on for profit or gain”. Sue’s left it blank but it’s a criminal offense to not ‘disclose a Disclosable Pecuniary Interest’. Sue might be unemployed and living in a tent but she’s a councillor picking up £200 a week. £200 a week looks like a ‘gain’ to me. Sue’s blank ‘answer’ appears to be false.³

Question Two relates to Sponsorship which means ‘…financial benefit….towards your election expenses.’ There’s evidence that Sue had help with ‘election expenses’. Her fellow councillor, Jackie McArdle, declared assistance from the Conservative Party for election expenses.⁴ It’s unlikely the Conservatives discriminated against Sue. It’s possible this blank ‘answer’ could also be false.

Question Four relates to Land. I’d have thought Sue, as a middle-aged person living in a high home ownership area like Havering, did have an interest in property but there’s no evidence one way or the other. There’s no evidence for blank answers to Questions 3, 5, 6 and 7.

Section B Personal Interests is left blank, which is surprising considering her interest in allotments.

Being a maverick and defecting from one party to another without calling a by-election is one thing. Not fulfilling a legal obligation is dereliction of duty at the very least and calls into question her status as a councillor.

Notes

1 This is her Register of Interests document mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk) Accessed 9^th September 2022

2 HRA = Havering Residents’ Association

3 As is that of her fellow councillor Sarah Edwards who’s also left this question (and question two) blank.

4 mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk)

Ray Morgon’s Cabinet Announced: Who Are They?

After 38 days of ‘wheeling and dealing,’ a cabinet is in place.¹ It’s less diverse and older than Damian White’s outgoing Conservative cabinet. Ray has welded together the independent Residents’ Associations.²He’s also brought Labour into a Working Agreement, making sense of consensus politics. Ray’s done interesting political juggling.

The Cabinet³

Ray and Keith Darvill have had 20 years in opposition. Ray has never succumbed to the Conservatives’ ‘pot-of-gold’ politics. His first act was to reduce Councillor Allowances, which suggests personal integrity. Keith has been a lonely figure following the implosion of Labour in 2002. They’ve both been principal members of Council for 20 years and stand head and shoulders above their colleagues.

Gillian and Oscar Ford are the most powerful husband and wife team since Labour’s Arthur and Margaret Lathom. Oscar (2022) is a complete unknown. He might find scrutiny bruising. For example, is his principal qualification for cabinet being Gillian’s husband? Gillian (2002) has flattered to deceive on many occasions. There always seems to be more unsaid than said. Has she got the inner steel to drive an agenda in a very difficult department?

Paul McGeary (2010), Paul Middleton (2018), Barry Mugglestone (2014) Chris Wilkins (2018) and Graham Williamson (2014) fill the remaining cabinet posts. They’re indifferent speakers but experience will rectify that. Their contributions in committee and council suggests they’re sound. McGeary’s professional profile means he’s amply qualified for his post. Wilkin’s qualification for the Finance post is that he’s a buy-to-let landlord. This is probably insufficient.⁴

Notes

1 14^th June 2022

2 From now on Residents’ Associations will be only referred to by the umbrella title Havering Residents’ Association (HRA)

3 Cabinet structure (havering.gov.uk)

4 mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk)

Havering Residents’ Association: Who Are They?

HRA is an umbrella organization, which maintains the legacy identities of Residents’ Associations (RA). The hard political miles over next four years will be very demanding for this arrangement. Having to make policies for the whole borough and balancing spending priorities is challenging.

The political labels that Havering’s Democracy Department uses for councillors illustrates the problem.¹HRA has six councillors not 20.² Neither the Leader, or his deputy, are identified as HRA councillors. Ray Morgon belongs to the Residents’ Group; Gillian Ford to the Upminster and Cranham Residents’ Group.

This isn’t nit-picking.³ Amateurism is lovable, until it lurches into a destructive shambles when people discover that not every decision is applauded.

HRA’s 20 councillors includes five women. Conservatives have nine out of 23, Labour five out of nine and East Havering Residents’ Group none. HRA and Labour have female deputy leaders so women’s issues should, hopefully, get a voice. Gillian Ford has an especial role in this matter. HRA’s female councillors are middle-aged and their life experiences should have sensitised them to sexist injustices.

HRA’s male councillors are mostly old.( see Addendum)⁴ It should be remembered that Havering is an ‘old’ borough, so this isn’t a complete anomaly.

Ray Morgon has begun consensual politics with his nominees for LGA positions.⁵This policy has to be applauded if it’s a sign of things to come.

Addendum: Ray Morgon’s Cabinet

Ray Morgon (60) Leader and professional politician

Gillian Ford (60) Deputy leader involved mentoring councillors (not LBH)

Chris Wilkins (67) Retired Senior local authority officer in housing

Graham Wilkinson (65) Retired logistic manager

Oscar Ford (?) Retired Senior local authority officer in strategy, performance and resources

Barry Mugglestone (?) Retired Ford Motors supervisor

Keith Darvill (74) Solicitor

Paul McGeary (65) NHS estates manager

Paul Middleton (?) Unemployed

Source Romford Recorder 12th August 2022

Notes

1 Your Councillors | The London Borough Of Havering This list is used for this blog. It’s published by the Democracy department of Havering Council and is based on the information given to the Council by councillors. As of 8th June 2022 HRA, as an umbrella organisation, is recognised on the Democracy site.

2 There are two HRA councillors for Emerson Park and Hylands and Harrow Lodge wards. There’s one each for St Andrew’s and Elm Park.

3 Oscar Ford describes his party as the Upminster and Cranham Residents’ Association. The other two councillors in that ward describe themselves as the Upminster and Cranham Residents’ Group. This is bizarre. The three councillors can’t even agree what party they’re in.

4 Councillors ages aren’t revealed by the Democracy Department but photographs offer clues. The Conservatives have the ‘youngest’ group of councillors including Damian White their Leader.

5 Local Government Association. The national organisation for councillors.