Havering’s Council Tax: The Rich get Richer

The Council Tax system isn’t fit for purpose.¹ People living in multimillion pound houses are winners. They pay tiny amounts of council tax as a percentage of the value of their property.²

Anomalies for expensive houses

A four-bedroom house in Gidea Park is for sale at £975,000.³ It’s band G. In Upminster another four-bedroom house is available for £1.25m⁴ council band F, which is £515p.a. less. Meanwhile in Emerson Park a five-bedroom house is available for £2m,⁵ council tax band G. This is twice as expensive as the Gidea Park house and in the same council tax band.

Anomalies for cheap houses

A two-bedroom flat in Rainham is available for £134,000⁶ council tax band C. In Romford a retirement property is on sale for £90,000⁷ also band C. The Romford property is one-third cheaper despite being in the same council tax band.

And it goes on and on and on.

The ultimate anomaly

Converting council tax into percentages reveals why it’s a racket.

A five-bedroom house in Emerson Park is available for £2m⁸ at council tax band H. Its council tax is £4,627. At the other end of the scale is a Park Home⁹ in band A paying £1,542.

The first property pays 0.23% of the value of the house. The second pays 1.71%, a massive percentage difference. If council tax was based on the property valuation as a percentage, the Emerson Park property would pay £34,200 instead of £4,625. This equalises the amounts paid.

Council tax isn’t a property tax. It is a thinly disguised crime against the poor.

Notes

1 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

2 For research purposes I surveyed houses for sale until mid-August 2025 on Rightmove and Zoopla. These are headline prices and might increase or decrease but that doesn’t alter the thrust of the discussion.

3 4 bedroom detached house for sale in Main Road, Gidea Park , RM2

4 4 bedroom detached house for sale in The Chase, Upminster, RM14

5 5 bedroom detached house for sale in Woodlands Avenue, Emerson Park, RM11

6 2 bedroom apartment for sale in Blueberry Court, Rainham, RM13 8JY, RM13

7 1 bedroom retirement property for sale in Admiral Lodge, Western Road, Romford, RM1

8 5 bedroom detached house for sale in Ernest Road, Emerson Park, RM11

9 Cummings Hall Lane, Noak Hill… 1 bed park home for sale – £89,995

Havering’s Council Tax 2025-6

Havering Council is bankrupt. The usual explanation is the cost of Adult Services and Homelessness. That’s glib. Council Tax was introduced in 1991 by a panic-stricken Conservative government reeling from the Poll Tax riots. They planned valuation reviews every five years, after which council tax would be recalibrated reflecting property price inflation. No reviews have taken place. Areas with massive property price inflation, like Havering, haven’t had council tax adjustments.

Havering’s Council Tax 2025

In 1991 a £320,000+ band ‘H’ house¹ in Havering had a council tax of £1070. This equates to 0.33% of its minimum value.

In 2025 a band ‘H’ property is worth about £2m.³ Council tax for band ‘H’ is £4,627, which is 0.23%. This doesn’t look much but it is a 30% difference.

Council tax has significantly reduced for band ‘H’’ property owners since 1991.

Inflation since 1991

Band ‘H’ houses were valued at £320,000+ in 1991. Using standard inflation, that increased to £733,720 in 2025.⁴ House price inflation is a multiple of standard inflation. A 1991 £320,000+ house is now £2,157,601,⁵ an inflation rate of 574%.

Council Tax is a failure

Political cowardice by governments has bankrupted Havering.⁶ Council tax is a failed mechanism for funding council services.⁷ Continuing to use 1991 valuations is ludicrous.

Correcting 34 years of inertia will take political courage………I’m not holding my breath.

Notes

1 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

2 Properties For Sale in Emerson Park | Rightmove

4 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

5 House price index | Nationwide

6 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering This was written in 2020 but the analysis is still valid though the examples are historic.

7 George Osborne’s Age of Austerity programme, 2010-16, put the knife to the throat of Havering’s finances and matters more than sub-optimal increases in council tax.

Back to the Future: learning from history

One proposed approach presented to Cabinet is the development of 18 fully equipped modular home units within the area allocated for the final phase of the Waterloo & Queen Street regeneration scheme, in Romford.¹

The Blitz left thousands of people homeless. In 1942² Churchill’s government began planning for housing the homeless post-war. He chose prefabricated houses because they were quick to erect. They were kitted out with equipment considered luxurious,

For a country used to the rigours of the outside lavatory and tin bath, the bathroom included a flushing toilet and man-sized bath with hot running water. In the kitchen were housed such modern luxuries as a built-in oven, refrigerator and Baxi water heater, which only later became commonplace in all residential accommodating.³

Post-war prefab housing, which was intended to be ‘temporary’.

The war bankrupted Britain and the American Marshall Plan⁴ hadn’t begun.There was a shortfall in building materials making the job harder. Prefab houses were an act of genius. They were built on vacant land. With the destruction of London, there were many sites and further east in Romford.⁵ Notwithstanding the challenges, they pushed forward immediately in 1945-6.

They planned for 300,000 homes with a life expectancy of 10 years but many lasted far longer. Post-war families were given stability for their families.

Havering in 2025 isn’t recovering from war but has a housing crisis. Because of their statutory duty,

“…..the Council was forced to overspend its temporary accommodation budget by £6 million.⁶

In 1942 Churchill decided housing was too important to leave to market forces. The Attlee Labour government fulfilled his programme by building hundreds of thousands of houses. 40 years later Maggie Thatcher destroyed public housing, unleashing a crisis.

Will modular houses begin a new era of social housing?

Notes

1 Cabinet approve temporary homes solutions to help tackle housing crisis | London Borough of Havering

2 Prefabs in the United Kingdom – Wikipedia

3 loc.cit. See this site for wonderful insights into prefab houses Prefabs – Palaces for the People

4 Marshall Plan | Summary & Significance | Britannica

5 prefab houses in romford – Search Images

6 Cabinet approve temporary homes solutions to help tackle housing crisis | London Borough of Havering

I’m giving a talk: Are Havering’s secondary schools fit for purpose?

22^nd April 2025 at 8pm at Fairkytes Hall, Hornchurch for the Fabian Society

There will be a Q&A session afterwards

The Consequences of Conservative Extremism, 2010-24

Havering is bankrupt.

Ray Morgon, HRA Leader of Council, is outraged because Havering is a victim. The Conservatives destroyed local government between 2010 and 2024. Ray Morgon and the new Labour government are victims. They’re making decisions they hate and despise.

There has been 51.4% of inflation since 2010.¹ In 2010, Band D Council Tax was £1505.²This increased to £2208 in 2024,³ up 46.7%. Council tax has therefore, more-or-less, increased with general inflation.

Bankruptcy is a direct result of government policy.

In 2010, Havering was centrally funded with £70m annually. In 2024, this had fallen to less than £2m. A 97% decrease. Conservative governments introduced funding based on specific criteria. The baseline for grants was 2010. The world changed but the baseline remained inflexible.

The demography of Havering shows startling changes.⁴ Havering has more young and old people than in 2010. Both groups are heavy consumers of council services. The inflexible baseline has damaging outcomes with Adult and Children’s Services budgets out of control. There isn’t any *control* because they’re demand led and can increase in a moment.

Havering isn’t alone. The spectre of bankruptcy is haunting local authorities. The consequences of Conservative government policies are lethal.⁵ Ray Morgon has an £88m problem. Rachel Reeves’s problem is a gigantic £7.8bn. She has to fill the national funding gap. Her challenges are dominated by the NHS, Education and Defence. The Conservative legacy is catastrophic.

Ray Morgon’s decision to borrow £88m to meet current revenue expenditure was the result of force majeure. Both he and Rachel Reeves are victims of chronic economic mismanagement.

Notes

1 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

2 110209agenda_feb.pdf

3 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

4 JSNA Demography Chapter 2023 v0.3A.pdf esp. pp6-7

5 Fair funding review modelling tools | Local Government Association

HRA Teeter On The Brink, 26th February 2025

The budget debate concluded dramatically as HRA were punished for poor political judgement. The Maggie Thatcher approach, ‘There is no alternative,’ nearly cost them power.

Ray Morgon has inherited the wreckage of George Osborne’s Austerity programme. Havering’s borrowing might increase by £88m to pay for adult and children’s social care along with the homelessness crisis. Everyone knows that’s expensive but no-one knows how much because it’s demand led.

The discussion about Havering’s £200m budget pivoted around food waste and libraries. David Taylor (1 hour 47)¹ said HRA made political choices. The choices are to close three libraries or introduce the food waste collection six months earlier than required.

The Conservatives demanded that food waste collection begins on 1^st April 2026. This saves £1.27m.² By not supplying bin liners a further £270,000 is saved. (See addendum) Three libraries could have their closure paused for a year.³

HRA went to public consultation on closure. 83% voted against but HRA’s ‘Maggie Thatcher Tendency’ led them to ignore the consultation. HRA have forgotten they’re in a minority. The vote on Labour’s amendment was a sharp reminder. The vote tied at 24:24 and HRA won on the casting vote of the Mayor.

Seven councillors were absent, including former Conservative Leader Damian White. If he’d turned up HRA would have faced a vote of confidence and possibly lost power.

Philip Ruck (1:08)⁴ taunted HRA with being in the pocket of the officers. And the papers confirm he has a point. The Labour amendment led to this comment from the principal officer,

“Although the saving is financially viable, as the Council’s S151 Officer, I am unable to recommend this.”

Amazing!

S151 officers only advise whether amendments make financial sense. Philip said, “Officers advise and politicians decide.” HRA have neither the confidence or ability to reject officer advice. They tried to defend the politically indefensible.

Addendum: Labour’s amendment (edited)

Proposal. The Labour Group proposes the following budget amendments: That the saving closing South Hornchurch Library is reversed

That the saving closing Harold Wood Library is reversed

To reduce the Capitalisation Direction

That Gidea Park Library is re-purposed for alternative use

Total costs. This would be financed by: Removal of costs of bin liners from the Food Waste collection £0.270m

Source (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 26/02/2025 19:30 p983

Best Speech: David Taylor

Notes

1 Annotator Player All times relate to this webcast

2 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 26/02/2025 19:30 p981

3 Martin Goode Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part one) – Politics in Havering At 58 minutes said that these were headline savings and didn’t include decommissioning costs.

4 Annotator Player

Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part two)

Background

Political groups nominated speakers to set out their propositions¹ and general debate followed. There were 12 speeches² and this gives a flavour of the debate.

General Debate

Michael White (Con) began (1hour 05) with, “He didn’t want to bring politics into the debate.” Michael believes everything is political. He said a pause in introducing the Food Waste collection would save the libraries. This is irrefutable.

Philip Ruck (Cranham RA) said HRA don’t understand their budget as it’s set by officers. He said borrowing £88m to put £5m into reserves is ludicrous. (£1m costs £50K p.a. in interest.)

Keith Prince (Con) said, “Politics don’t matter’. Councillors panicked, wondering who this imposter was. Keith, if it was him, identified savings which earn money like increasing the number of planning officers. He’s a fan of Harold Wood library and likes the police and CCTV.

Ray Morgon (HRA) Defended his budget quite well. He favours lobbying. A triumph of hope over experience.

Barry Mugglestone (HRA) He loves ‘law and order’ policies and liners for caddy bins. His argument for bin liners was feeble.

Gillian Ford (HRA) She got dewy eyed about libraries she’d visited 35 years ago with her children. Everyone wondered if she’d been in one since the 1990s. Apart from saying Gidea Park library was poor in the 1990s, that was it.

Graham Williamson (HRA) He should write his speeches to prevent confusion to himself and his audience. He tried, and failed, to trash Opposition amendments by saying the Finance Director was against them. He was, of course, wrong.

(Four HRA cabinet members spoke consecutively.)

Martin Goode (East Havering RAs) As soon as he spoke about Harold Wood library he was interrupted by Gillian. He failed to make a good point.

Brian Eagling (East Havering RAs) He denounced increased charges on football pitches. He was shouted down by Gillian and Barry. His good point wasn’t made.

(HRA really, really don’t like East Havering RAs and don’t conceal it.)

Robert Benham (Con) denounced the lack of ambition in the budget. He found it unbelievable HRA were borrowing their way ‘out’ of debt with £200m by 2026.

Jane Keane (Labour) Agreed with Keith Darvill’s tour d’horizon, which was compelling and depressing in equal measure.

Judith Holt (Con) She dislikes misery and feels councillors should recognise that Havering is attractive for people from other parts of London.

James Glass (HRA) He made an honest assessment of the budget. He showed how HRA councillors are tortured by decisions like closing libraries.

Best Speech: James Glass

Best Havering patriot: Judith Holt

Notes

1 Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part one) – Politics in Havering

2 Annotator Player This is in speech order beginning with White and ending with Glass.

Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part one)

Background

Havering is bankrupt. A legal ‘budget’ was set by borrowing a maximum of £88m from the government. The interest will, catastrophically, be added to the debt.

Principal Speeches

Chris Wilkins (Cabinet Member, Finance)

Chris’s (12 minutes)¹ new tactic is a seminar presentation. There were constant references to slides (invisible to users of the webcast). It reeked of officer speak.

He spent 13 minutes whining. His attack on the Conservatives was ineffective.²Chris failed to convince on the expensive urgency of the ‘food waste project’. He’s going to lobby the government for more grant finance. Good luck with that!

John Tyler (Cranham RAs)

John was a revelation (26). He offered a critique of choices and said government loans will cost £5m in interest. His propositions were adding seven posts to increase efficiency, pausing the Harold Wood library closure and a reduction in carparking fees. His one saving proposition was not borrowing a £1m and saving £50k interest.

Dilip Patel (Conservative)

His speech (34) provoked a stand-off between the Mayor and the Conservatives. They displayed posters which the Mayor didn’t like. It’s procedurally OK but the Mayor demanded they be removed and the Tories backed down. (If they’d been serious they’d have challenged the chair and had a ding-dong.)

Dilip’s amendments were more police, more CCTV and keep open Harold Wood library. This all paid for by not having the food waste scheme. Good knockabout stuff.

(The Mayor explained what a ‘point of order’ is to Barry Mugglestone.)

Keith Darvill (Labour)

Keith made a very good speech (46). He said the budget is ‘fiction’. And he’s right. Havering’s bankruptcy means government loans balance the books. The debt could reach £200m in 2026-7 with only statutory services provided. He hoped the Fair Funding propositions would rescue Havering but increased defence spending make that unlikely. Next years’ interest charge will be about £10m.

Martin Goode (East Havering RAs)

Martin returned (58) to his normal themes of budgets that over promise and under-achieve. Importantly he highlighted the costs of closing libraries. These costs reduce savings. He thought that Harold Wood’s closure should be paused. A good solid speech. He should provide evidence about under-achievement of savings. Martin relies on assertion, which creates a credibility gap.

Best Speech: John Tyler

Note

1 Annotator Player All times relate to this webcast

Havering’s Cabinet, 22nd January 2025

The Conservatives have their third leader since 2022. Michael White is a veteran from when the electorate elected Conservatives.

Barry Mugglestone (one minute)¹ introduced the borough’s ‘Food Disposal’ policy.² He had a blizzard of statistics and costings, which were meant to ‘shock and awe’. David Taylor (4minutes) had prepared searching questions. He relished asking them and created a classy debate.

Food Disposal is government policy and Havering is new to it. David wondered if officers had done comparative research to avoid reinventing the wheel. The answer: not much.

Havering’s two year contract for non-obligatory caddy bin liners is £1million. Havering is bankrupt. Barry (9 minutes) wanted to withdraw his proposal but was ignored. Gillian Ford (17 minutes) said bin liners should be provided and stopped later on. Good luck with that!

Natasha Summers (48 minutes) wants to reduce homelessness costs.³ The policy will save £1.8m over ten years. Meanwhile bin liners will cost £1m over two years. Converting a Basildon office building will provide 34 units. Havering residents will be shipped out to Basildon for their housing needs.

Michael White (50 minutes) showed political Leadership. He pursued the implications of the policy for residents and Basildon. He said homeless people are shuffled around and Havering was a victim of inner-London disposal policies. The savings are negligible and it is papering over the cracks.

These discussions implied cabinet members don’t critique their papers. They should be more than spokespersons for officers.

Notes

1 Annotator Player All timings refer to this webcast

1 5.0 amended Cabinet – Food Waste 22.01.2025 1.pdf

3 8.0 Cabinet Paper – Office to residential conversion to accommodate homeless families at Eastgate Ho.pdf

Havering’s Council Meeting, 20th November 2024 (part one)

Havering Council’s descent into irrelevance is accelerating. The Leader didn’t make an announcement about his seismic budget consultation at the beginning of the meeting. It was published 48 hours later.

Keith Prince is another example (1:06). He’s a GLA transport committee member with constant access to TfL decision-makers. His question,¹

What lobbying has the Cabinet Member for the Environment undertaken with regards to the withdrawal of the 347-bus route since the most recent announcement by the Mayor of London?

Barry Mugglestone should have utilised Keith’s unique position to lobby the GLA. HRA claim to be independent of political party silos. Well, it doesn’t look like it. They should be working together and not squabbling.

The other 12 questions were ostrich like. None dealt with the impending disaster of the 2025-6 budget. There are four options for consultation (see addendum).²

HRA is proposing another loan. Guess-estimate £50-70m

OR, increase council tax. Guess-estimate 10-20%

OR, throw the towel in and get the government in to run the shop.

OR, Local Government Funding is adjusted for Havering. Guess-estimate ‘No chance’.

Question Time is ideal for probing Havering’s cabinet. Neither the Leader or the Finance cabinet member had a question to answer. The failed £54m loan was unremarked on. Was it even noticed?

The council’s inadequacy is shown by the fact that they can’t even successfully lobby TfL about a bus route!

Addendum: Budget Consultation – principal points

Another Capitalisation Direction (government loan)

Significantly increasing Council Tax beyond the Government’s proposals (this would require a referendum).

Section 114 (effectively declaring the Council bankrupt with the possibility of Government Commissioners being sent in to run the Council which in itself would incur significant costs).

Urgent intervention from the government (extra funding/funding formula review to reflect current population change and need).

Notes
1 Council Questions 20 November 2024.pdf Q12

2 Havering launches consultation as Council budget on precipice | London Borough of Havering

Havering’s Cabinet, 6th November 2024

Bankruptcy dominates council decision-making. Item 6¹ discussed the unfolding financial situation. Chris Wilkins (28 minutes) introduced the item in his ‘reading a shopping list’ style. Surprisingly, he sounds like a born-again Labour loyalist with a mission to rescue Havering after 14 years of Tory misrule.

The £52m government loan, negotiated with the Conservatives, is inadequate. Chris says the 2025-6 outcome will be minus £73m. Ominously, he (31) identified the Freedom Pass as a pressure point. Havering has many OAPs and the Freedom Pass is very expensive at £8m. Chris could be thinking of that as a ‘savings’ item. If the government does not increase Havering’s funding, Chris might have to consider a huge increase in council tax.

Ray Morgon, Gillian Ford and Chris love lobbying. It’s ludicrous and is the triumph of hope over experience. Ray (33) said the GLA expects 25% of councils to be bankrupt by 2026-7 along with Havering.

“To engage in discussion with the Government regarding a fix to the underlying budget issue the Council faces or agree a further capitalisation direction to allow time for funding reform to be actioned.”²

The recent Labour budget allocated £1.3bn for local government. Ray said Havering should receive good treatment because it’s virtually bankrupt. Interestingly, neither Chris or Ray mentioned that the interest rate for the £52m loan had been reduced by 1%. The 1% saves half million pounds in annual interest payments, which is £200,00 more than closing four libraries.

The government could lift the ‘cap’ on council tax increases, “It is unclear… whether…[the new Government] will allow authorities more flexibility regarding tax increases.”³

Chris won’t welcome empowerment. He prefers being a helpless victim. If the £21m shortfall is funded by council tax increases, it will be dramatic in an election year.

Notes

1 Annotator Player

2 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 06/11/2024 19:30 para 8.2

“….agree a further capitalisation direction to allow time for funding reform to be actioned.” This means that they intend to borrow long term for current revenue pressures. This is financial insanity.

3 ibid 8.3