Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell ~ Back from the Brink, July 2024

After the catastrophic general election, Julia and Andrew have reacted differently. They both had 82% reductions in their huge majorities.¹ What lessons did they learn from this experience?

Julia’s response is that she’s now a constituency MP. She’s ditching her nickname Invisible. Her new dynamism has been rewarded with many appearances in the Romford Recorder. Dynamic, caring, constituency work is Julia’s five-year project. She hopes to be the darling of Hornchurch and Upminster in 2029.

Andrew’s response is amnesia. Bad things happened during the last 14 years and they’re all Labour’s fault. Andrew admires Robert Jenrick,² who was Immigration Minister in Sunak’s government.

“For too long, mass migration has gone unchecked, placing unbearable strain on housing, schools, the NHS and on all public services.”³

That Andrew supports anti-immigration politics and Jenrick shows the power of amnesia.

He believes Romford needs red-blooded Conservatism and then he’ll be the darling of Romford once more.

Julia and Andrew suffered from a rampant Reform Party. Their actual strategy is to “really, really” pray Farage’s Reform party implodes. Otherwise, the 2029 election could be terminal for Julia and Andrew.

Notes

1 Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 Romford Recorder 27^th September 2024 p33 Andrew hosted Jenrick at his Romford HQ.

3 loc.cit.

Havering’s Election: An Undemocratic Democracy?

Regardless of the destruction of the Conservative Party, Labour came second in Romford and third in Hornchurch and Upminster. Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell were re-elected but were rejected by a majority of the electorate.

Julia Lopez

Julia was trounced by the anti-Conservative vote.¹She won her parliamentary seat with 15,260 votes. The other five candidates had 31,651 votes, which is 16,391 more.
Worse, the abstention rate was 37.65% of the 75,421 electorate. Julia became MP with 15,260 votes out of an electorate of 75,421. She won with 20% of the vote.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for her.

Andrew Rosindell

The same analysis applies to Andrew. He became MP with 15,339 votes and 27,808 actively opposing him. Turnout was 60%, which is 29,492 voters. Active and passive opposing votes = 57,300 voters and Andrew just reached the magic 20% needed for victory.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for him.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew are blameless. The British electoral system needs to be changed but won’t be. Change comes when winners cooperate and they like systems that deliver power. Meanwhile Nigel Farage’s Reform Party picked up 4 million votes and five seats. They, like the LibDems and Greens, suffer from the system.

Havering’s local elections are worse, much worse. Turnout was in the range 23.5% to 42.3%, in 2022. No ward achieved a 50% turnout. When do elections stop being democratic? Councillors could be elected with 2% of the vote.

Ludicrous as it seems, this is possible.

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024

Havering has hard-core Conservatives, as was demonstrated by Susan Hall trouncing Labour in May, 2024. The General Election result¹ was, as the bookies say, ‘a form result’. But was it?

Julia Lopez

In 2019 she had a majority of 23,308. This evaporated to one of 1,943 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic but when viewed locally, it accurately reflects the electorate. They vote Conservative and hold their noses. HRA have made the constituency a Tory-free zone. Worse, she is a poor constituency MP with no personal support.

Andrew Rosindell

In 2019 he had a majority of 17,893. This evaporated to one of 1,463 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic for a long-standing, hard-working constituency MP. Unlike Hornchurch and Upminster, Andrew’s constituency has a significant number of Conservative councillors. He’s well-known, is an expert campaigner and yet, his result mirrored that of the lack-lustre Julia.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew couldn’t be more different. She’s a political opportunist with a glittering career in the past. He’s an Essex man Tory. Andrew didn’t get a personal vote and Romford had their worst result since 1997.

Havering is changing. In Hornchurch and Upminster, the Reform party, from a standing start, came second. Reform isn’t a political party: They’re a private company owned by Nigel Farage. They’re a PR party tapping into the utter distaste and sense of betrayal that many voters feel about the principal parties. They’re Conservative party ultras who have voters who don’t know what that implies.

HRA are in the same territory. They also reflect the desire for change and have to operate outside their comfort zone. The question is, can they?

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Andrew Rosindell’s Libertarian Political Philosophy (part One)

Andrew Rosindell: Parliament, 14th December, 2021

Conservative Councillors Savaged by MP

Andrew Rosindell, Romford MP, is an expert on Conservative councillors. He lashed out at them saying they do “Literally nothing.”¹ In his eyes they do nothing for either their constituents or, worse, the Conservative party. He’s personally suffered from their idleness with increased workload.

Councillors have Town Hall commitments that aren’t onerous. Analysing Town Hall meetings for April, shows that Andrew is correct: many councillors do “Literally nothing”. There are few meetings and attendance is far from 100%.

Six committee meetings were scheduled for April and three were cancelled.²If there had been full attendance at those three meetings a maximum of 19 councillors were involved.³ Seven councillors were absent.⁴ 36 councillors weren’t scheduled to attend any committee meetings.

Andrew Rosindell says Conservative councillors don’t do ward casework⁵ and don’t attend Town Hall meetings either.⁶ Ward casework is unmonitored and it’s up to councillors whether they work hard or not. Conservative councillors might be uniquely idle but it’s unlikely.

Where councillors are monitored is in their attendance at Town Hall meetings. It’s probable that slacking off there is evidence about their overall commitment.

Notes

1 Romford Recorder 19^th April 2024 p4 One outcome of this outburst was three Conservative councillors defecting to HRA. To be fair he did name two that were OK.

2 Agenda for Planning Committee on Thursday, 18th April, 2024, 7.30 pm | The London Borough Of Havering Planning committee

Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) Joint Health o/s committee

Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) cabinet Two councillors attended this meeting as observers. They were Keith Prince and Martin Goode and both spoke. The council’s attendance list has an opportunity for noting additional non-slated attendance but on this occasion doesn’t do so in either case.

3 Monthly meetings calendar – April 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering There is a full list of meetings for the year. During April 43 councillors didn’t attend any scheduled meetings at all.

4 None of the Conservative councillors on the Planning committee turned up. John and Philippa Crowder might have been on strike or, in between parties. Additionally, Oscar Ford, Gillian Ford, Barry Mugglestone, Carol Smith and Christine Smith were absent from their meetings. This is a 38% absenteeism rate.

5 Romford Recorder ibid

6 Councillors attendance summary, 29 October 2023 – 22 April 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering Every councillor is listed noting their attendance over the last six months. Damian White has attended one meeting out of a possible six in the last six months

Andrew Rosindell’s Missing 21 Months

“A man, aged in his 50s, was arrested in May 2022 on suspicion of indecent assault, sexual assault, rape, abuse of position of trust and misconduct in public office.

“A thorough investigation has been carried out by detectives. They concluded that the evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors.¹

Andrew has been completely exonerated.²

The Conservative parliamentary party is facing an existential threat from sleaze. Johnson’s government fell after a failed cover-up of Chris Pincher’s homosexual attack, which he did in public when drunk. On the 15^th February 2024, Peter Bone’s safe seat collapsed into Labour’s hands. He’d been found guilty of bullying and a homosexual offence.³The Conservatives were desperate to avoid another by-election.⁴

Andrew was taken into custody for very serious offences followed by two years of investigations. The Conservatives and Andrew had a ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’. He stayed away from parliament whilst on police bail. His exclusion period was 21 months during which time he remained a Conservative MP and was paid accordingly.

Andrew’s office issued a statement declaring him to be ‘completely exonerated.’⁵ ‘Completely exonerated’ isn’t right. The police statement said the, “…evidence did not meet the threshold set by Crown Prosecutors “. The implication is there was evidence but not enough for a prosecution. Andrew has been ‘exonerated’ but not ‘completely’.

Notes

1 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell CLEARED after being arrested for ‘sexual offences & misconduct in public office’ – The Sun | The Sun

2 BREAKING: Andrew Rosindell MP cleared following investigation. – The Havering Daily

3 Recall petition for suspended Wellingborough MP Peter Bone opens – BBC News

4 Apart from Bone and Pincher there have been six Conservative MPs excluded from parliament for mostly homosexual offences recently.

5 EXONERATED | English meaning – Cambridge Dictionary

Andrew Rosindell: Romford’s Absentee MP

Background

Andrew was arrested in May, 2022 for various alleged offences.¹ His police bail has been extended five times from then until August, 2023.

When bailed he made a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with the Conservative Chief Whip to distance himself from parliament. Neither expected police bail to last 15 months.

Politics

Non-attendance from parliament for 15 months is unique. It begs the question whether Romford is represented as it should be. A pragmatic solution, to what was hoped to be a temporary embarrassment, has become a nightmare. Andrew’s absence means the Chief Whip and he have denied Romford their democratic rights.
Worse, Romford Conservative party members were deceived during Andrew’s reselection process. They didn’t know he was persona non grata ²in the parliamentary Conservative party. As a long-standing MP with an excellent track record he could have been reselected anyway.

Police Bail

Is 15 months of police bail an abuse of the system?

“The officers making the decision to extend police bail must be satisfied that the investigation by police has been conducted diligently and expeditiously, and that keeping the person on bail whilst the investigation is conducted is both necessary and proportionate.”³ (my emphasis)

Five extensions are shocking.

Conclusion

Andrew deserves better than this and so do the people of Romford.

Notes

1 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell has not attended parliament for more than a year since arrest (thetimes.co.uk)

2 persona non grata meaning – Search (bing.com)

3 How long can I be kept on police bail? – TV Edwards Solicitors see also The Perplexing Reality of Extended Police Bail | London’s Defence Lawyers (stuartmillersolicitors.co.uk)

Andrew Rosindell’s Big Idea

Andrew¹isn’t a political thinker. His Big Idea is Havering² joining Essex and damn the consequences. It’s Brexit politics transferred to Havering.

Andrew’s ‘independence’ programme will upset elderly voters who will lose the Freedom Pass.³ ‘Independence’ would end it forever. Popping into London for a cheap day out would be a memory. People from Brentwood are jealous of London’s Freedom Pass, especially since the Elizabeth Line started. The other main benefit is it increases Havering’s house prices.

Independence won’t protect Havering from ‘Mayor Khan’s dangerous [housing] plans…’,⁴ because there aren’t any dangerous plans. Businessmen make commercial decisions about housing. High rise blocks happen if there’s a market for them.

Andrew says Havering’s motorists are, ‘…being fleeced to the tune of £12.50 a day…due to Khan’s ULEZ tax.’ This is a lie. 85% of Havering’s motorists won’t pay a penny. A typical car in Havering is compliant. The Mayor is implementing a Public Health policy and using a charge to induce compliance. ULEZ is aimed at no polluting cars and clean air.

Andrew wants Havering to, “…be independent of the political structures of Greater London.” This from a man who wanted to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London in 2020 and failed! Shaun Bailey defeated Andrew for the candidacy. Shaun was then defeated by Sadiq Khan in 2020.

Andrew ends his Big Idea rant by saying, “….Havering [should] take back control’. Now where have we heard that one before? And didn’t it end well?

Notes

1 12 years as a Havering councillor and 22 years as Romford’s MP with an overlapping year. He’s had one year’s political experience 33 times.

2 He means Romford. Hornchurch was independent pre-1964 and was bitter about being taken over by Romford. Andrew was born in 1966 and is advocating someone else’s fantasy.

3 The Freedom Pass is very expensive for local authorities. Havering spends about £8 million p.a. Havering and the Freedom Pass – Politics in Havering

4 Romford Recorder ‘Make Havering Independent’ p34 14^th April 2023 All quotations are from this article.

Havering: Politics as Friendly Understandings

Eight elections since 1990 have resulted in No Overall Control. Conservatives have ruled Havering since 2002 but only once as a majority party. On every other occasion they’ve used HRA councillors. The last Administration used Harold Wood’s three councillors for four years. The 2022 election has put the Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) in the driving seat.

Damian White was aware of the challenges of getting a majority in Havering and acted accordingly. He believed Rainham was vulnerable. He put in place a team of local Conservatives and won it. The Rainham result was announced and Damian was vindicated. Unfortunately, he hadn’t thought the unthinkable. Romford wasn’t the citadel he imagined and Conservatives lost three seats. Bang went his plans and the ‘nightmare’ of an HRA – Labour Friendly Understanding became a distinct possibility.

Andrew Rosindell could tell Damian a thing or two. In 1996 Havering had a Rainbow Alliance.² HRA’s Louise Sinclair led an Administration that included Conservatives and Socialists. The Socialists were, by Havering standards, hard left. Andrew was voting with Socialists in a joint Administration. Goodbye political purity! Labour enjoyed watching Del Smith influence them for two years.

Havering has spoken. And what they’ve said is they like Friendly Understandings. If the young Andrew could do it for the greater good then so can anyone.

Addendum: A case for Proportional Representation?

Abstentions: 65% of the electorate

Notes

1 Local Elections 2022: Havering Council live results | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Rainbow Alliance – Politics in Havering

Andrew Rosindell: Parliament, 14th December, 2021

Dr Luke Evans (Con) “While masks are of course inconvenient, they are a relatively easy way of reducing the risk of not only covid, but other viruses such as flu. Let us not forget that the number of flu admissions places a huge amount of pressure on the NHS, so a reduction in both conditions—as evidenced—makes sense to me.”¹Hansard 14^th December 2021

Andrew believes making mask wearing compulsory is an infringement of liberty. Let’s see if Andrew’s position is coherent.

Enoch Powell was a philosopher-politician and a true libertarian. In 1973 he argued against mandatory helmets for motor cyclists because suicide wasn’t illegal.²Powell’s position was that reckless behaviour sometimes results in death but so what? That’s the price of reckless behaviour sometimes. Wearing masks during a pandemic isn’t being reckless with your own life, it’s being reckless with the lives of other people. In brief, it’s a Public Health issue.

Let’s imagine Andrew’s infected, unknowingly, with Covid-19’s new potent form, Omicron. A simple way of reducing his capacity to infect others is to wear a mask.³ He’s against this and refused to vote for mandatory mask wearing. He claims it’s an infringement of his ‘liberty’. The liberty to infect others.

Covid-19 effects people differently. The impact ranges from nothing to death. The Public Health response is to protect the population from known danger. Protective measures includes wearing masks.

Dr Evans said masks are “inconvenient” but “a relatively easy way of reducing…risk”. Not a magic bullet but important during a pandemic. Andrew is indulging in political posturing.

Responsible leadership demands that the public good triumphs over personal inclination. This is especially true for our MPs.

Notes

1 Parliamentary debate on Public Health with four votes on regulations for the current pandemic Public Health – Hansard – UK Parliament For the actual resolution on face masks see “That the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021 (SI, 2021, No. 1400), dated 9 December 2021.” There were 41 No votes including Andrew

2 MOTOR CYCLISTS (HELMETS) (Hansard, 5 April 1973) (millbanksystems.com)

3 Now mask wearing has been legislated for there’s no reason to believe he won’t obey the law.