Havering’s Council Tax Meeting, 26th February 2025 (part one)

Background

Havering is bankrupt. A legal ‘budget’ was set by borrowing a maximum of £88m from the government. The interest will, catastrophically, be added to the debt.

Principal Speeches

Chris Wilkins (Cabinet Member, Finance)

Chris’s (12 minutes)¹ new tactic is a seminar presentation. There were constant references to slides (invisible to users of the webcast). It reeked of officer speak.

He spent 13 minutes whining. His attack on the Conservatives was ineffective.²Chris failed to convince on the expensive urgency of the ‘food waste project’. He’s going to lobby the government for more grant finance. Good luck with that!

John Tyler (Cranham RAs)

John was a revelation (26). He offered a critique of choices and said government loans will cost £5m in interest. His propositions were adding seven posts to increase efficiency, pausing the Harold Wood library closure and a reduction in carparking fees. His one saving proposition was not borrowing a £1m and saving £50k interest.

Dilip Patel (Conservative)

His speech (34) provoked a stand-off between the Mayor and the Conservatives. They displayed posters which the Mayor didn’t like. It’s procedurally OK but the Mayor demanded they be removed and the Tories backed down. (If they’d been serious they’d have challenged the chair and had a ding-dong.)

Dilip’s amendments were more police, more CCTV and keep open Harold Wood library. This all paid for by not having the food waste scheme. Good knockabout stuff.

(The Mayor explained what a ‘point of order’ is to Barry Mugglestone.)

Keith Darvill (Labour)

Keith made a very good speech (46). He said the budget is ‘fiction’. And he’s right. Havering’s bankruptcy means government loans balance the books. The debt could reach £200m in 2026-7 with only statutory services provided. He hoped the Fair Funding propositions would rescue Havering but increased defence spending make that unlikely. Next years’ interest charge will be about £10m.

Martin Goode (East Havering RAs)

Martin returned (58) to his normal themes of budgets that over promise and under-achieve. Importantly he highlighted the costs of closing libraries. These costs reduce savings. He thought that Harold Wood’s closure should be paused. A good solid speech. He should provide evidence about under-achievement of savings. Martin relies on assertion, which creates a credibility gap.

Best Speech: John Tyler

Note

1 Annotator Player All times relate to this webcast

Havering Council and the St Francis Hospice Charity

There are an impressive 16 charity shops in Havering.¹ The charity with the greatest number is St Francis Hospice with three shops.

Rated outstanding by the CQC, Saint Francis Hospice [SFH] provides expert care for people in our community with palliative and end of life care needs.²

SFH’s three shops had sales of £2.6m³ in 2023. This success encouraged them to open a ‘superstore’ in Hornchurch. Additionally, there’s the Loughton Boutique, which is their first shop in west Essex.⁴ SFH is a retail operator mixing charity with sound business acumen. It has reserves of £17.3m.⁵ SFH is a significant charity but ‘small’ financially.

Havering Council has tiny reserves,

“£8m of un-earmarked reserves is equivalent to c4% of the Council’s projected 2024/25 net budget of £19.75m [this is an error. It ought to read £197.5m] This is far below the recommended minimum level of reserves and is significantly lower than the average level of un-ring-fenced reserves across London.”⁶ (my explanation)

Havering’s dire financial position is illustrated by the fact that SFH has reserves twice the size of theirs.

Havering is a compulsory supporter of SFH.⁷ SFH pays 20% of the business rates due because of a 1988 decision.⁸ This decision costs Havering tens of thousands of pounds in business rates from the 16 charity shops.⁹

Havering is a ‘victim’ of a decision made 37 years ago forcing them to reduce the business rates for charity shops by 80%. Charity shops are worthy but there is no chance they’d still be getting a reduction if Havering had a choice.

Notes

1 havering’s charity shops – Search This site includes a map

2 Saint Francis Hospice – Home CQC = Care Quality Commission

3 application-pdf p26

4 loc.cit.

5 ibid. p44

6 5-14 Appendix H – Section 25 Statement of Robustness.pdf para 8:1

7 Charity Relief – Businessrates.uk

8 Business rates—charities and not-for-profit organisations | Legal Guidance | LexisNexis

9 This is a heroic estimate.

Havering’s Cabinet Meeting, 5th February: Budget (part two)

“I believe in miracles….” Hot Chocolate (1975)¹

The meeting began with Chris Wilkins, the cabinet member for finance, reading a document which he didn’t appear to have written (1:26).² Very sensibly, HRA don’t use Chris as their main man during financial discussions.

The discussion was brutal.

Ray Morgon set his stall out. The government review of Havering’s finance is vital to his strategy. The Fair Funding Review (1:31) is the miracle which will stave off Havering’s financial catastrophe. The Chief Executive (1:46) said that he wouldn’t consider requesting a council tax increase beyond 4.99% because Havering’s problems weren’t caused by decision-making in Havering. This reflects HRA’s policy.

The director of Finance expressed caution. She was ‘very concerned’ about the long-term sustainability of Havering (1:34). Keith Darvill (1:32) probed forensically, discovering that the interest on the capitalisation programme hasn’t been paid. This means debt accelerates each year through the joys of compound interest. The director said that the conversation will be ‘very different’ in 2028 if nothing changes.

“…if you have debt, compounding of the interest you owe can make it increasingly difficult to pay off.”³

Capitalisation Funding for day-to-day expenditure is insanity.

The Chief Executive (1:31) said after his meeting with the minister there would be no change in government policy concerning debt repayments.

HRA is hoping the government will back down first and won’t enforce the debt. HRA is engaging in a form of “Can’t pay, Won’t pay.”⁴Havering is depending on safety in numbers. They’re hoping that along with the 18 other councils which are being buried alive in debt, they will have to be rescued.

Notes

1 The lyrics aren’t about local government finance. But are great fun. Read them. Relive the 70s! i believe in miracles hot chocolate lyrics – Search

2 Annotator Player All times refer to this webcast

3 The Power of Compound Interest: Calculations and Examples

4 This is a Marxist play, 1974, by the Italian Dario Fo which is a satire on consumer resistance to high prices. Can’t Pay? Won’t Pay! – Wikipedia

Andrew Carnegie loved libraries

Havering Cabinet, 5th February 2025: Budget

Gillian Ford (1minute),¹is Havering’s Maggie Thatcher. Her speech was a version of ‘There is no alternative’. (see addendum). Her conclusions are pure Maggie.

“Without these three [library] closures we cannot cover their costs, we place remaining libraries at risk, and we would not be delivering the improvement and transformation plan agreed at Full Council last July, in accordance with MHCLG’s requirements.”²

Being obvious nonsense, Keith Prince (20) piled in. He evoked shifty and evasive answers before the Chief Executive (23) conceded his point. Library closures are a political choice. Gillian (52) declared, “We have no alternative!” Maggie Rides Again.

The cabinet spent 51 minutes discussing £800K whilst simultaneously negotiating a £70m loan. Chris Wilkins said (1:27) that the gap could be £89m.³ This astonishing 27% variation on the Leader’s statement was treated with levity by Chris. Havering’s government borrowings are a minimum of £102m This is to pay for daily expenditure but not for tangible infrastructure benefits. The loans are a manoeuvre to avoid “…a massive increase in council tax beyond the standard 4.99 per cent.”⁴

Ray Morgon conveniently forgets the £102m are loans, which future Havering councils will have to pay.⁵ He has a heroic belief in government largesse where loans are written off. Is this prudent budget setting? Meanwhile he stands by the £1m free parking gift to his political heartlands in Hornchurch and Upminster.

Addendum: There is no alternative, Margaret Thatcher

“TINA (as characterized by explicit use of ‘there is no alternative’ and declarations of necessity, inevitability, and irrefutability of certain policies) can be considered a political strategy in both democratic and autocratic regimes. Its rhetoric allows politicians to reduce the scope of available policy choices, limiting the expectations of their electorate and avoiding the blame for bad, but ‘unescapable’ policies.” source There is no alternative – Wikipedia

Notes

1 All times refer to the webcast Annotator Player

2 loc.cit. 18 minutes Gillian used MHCLG throughout her speech without saying it’s the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. Gillian is claiming the Ministry has demanded library closures, which is nonsense. Councillor Taylor says, “….the saving is likely to be around just £161k.” This is after decommissioning costs are factored into the equation. REVEALED: Actual Library Closure Costs Gillian responded Deputy Leader Responds to Library Closure Criticism By Romford Councillor. – The Havering Daily

4 loc.cit. Wilkins speech

4 Havering hosts crime summit, Cabinet agrees next year’s budget, we celebrate LGBT+ History Month – 12hedonic@gmail.com – Gmail [CP1]

5 Presumably not by HRA’s current leadership.

[CP1]

Andrew Rosindell’s Question to Keir Starmer, 29th January 2025

Andrew says,¹

“…the population of this country will rise to 72.5 million by 2032….which is unsustainable.” (my emphasis).

In 1945 the UK’s population was 48 million. When Andrew was born, in 1966, it was 54.6 million.² People living in 1945 couldn’t have comprehended the 2024 British population, which is 44% higher than it was.

Why is another three million unsustainable? “Turkey has…(3,181,222‑ individuals) [immigrants] who have been granted temporary protection status.” Most are from Syria and are the majority of a 4.6 million immigrant population. Turkey is poorer than Britain but accepts its responsibilities.

Keir Starmer’s answer was interesting “…we will bring those numbers down.” Why? British politicians are obliged to be anti-immigrant. Positive, heartwarming stories are buried in anti-immigrant bile.

Rishi Sunak’s parents were born in east Africa. Nassar Hussain, Essex and England cricket captain, was born in India. In literature, T S Eliot was American and became a British Nobel prize winner. Marks and Spencer’s shopping chain is an immigrant success story. And this is a tiny sample of immigrants in Britain building a better wealthier country.^4,5Both the question and answer are disappointing. Asylum seekers should be accepted. Economic immigrants are critical to the well-being of Britain because they’re motivated to succeed. They should be welcomed.

Addendum: Andrew Rosindell’s question with Keir Starmer’s answer

Rosindell The Prime Minister should know that my Romford constituents are shocked, angry and dismayed by the suggestion by the Office for National Statistics that the population of this country will rise to 72.5 million by 2032—that is 500,000 people a year, which is unsustainable. Who voted for that, and will the Government do something to ensure that the population of this country is sustainable going forward? There is no mandate for such a colossal increase in immigration to this country.

Starmer I think the hon. Gentleman should talk to his party leader. Net migration went through the roof under the previous Government—by nearly 1 million; it quadrupled—and who was cheering it on? The Leader of the Opposition. The hon. Gentleman’s constituents are right to be concerned about the loss of control by the previous Government. We are taking control; we will bring those numbers down. But the record is absolutely clear, and it sits right there on the Opposition Benches.Engagements – Hansard – UK Parliament

Addendum: West Ham United

The WHU squad, 2024-5 has 15 nationalities represented. Only ten of the 27 man squad are English. West Ham United FC Squad Information 2024/2025 | Premier League

Notes

1 Engagements – Hansard – UK Parliament PMQ’s 29^th January 2025

2 https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/1966/ In1966 it was 54.6 million Demographics of the United Kingdom – Wikipedia

3 number of immigrants in trukey – Search

4 Grooming gangs and ethnicity: What does the evidence say? – BBC News Focusing on criminals is a demonisation concealing the facts of the case.

5 Boris Johnson was born in the USA and could have stood for president. Nigel Farage had a German wife and his children presumably have dual nationality.

Havering’s Cabinet, 22nd January 2025

The Conservatives have their third leader since 2022. Michael White is a veteran from when the electorate elected Conservatives.

Barry Mugglestone (one minute)¹ introduced the borough’s ‘Food Disposal’ policy.² He had a blizzard of statistics and costings, which were meant to ‘shock and awe’. David Taylor (4minutes) had prepared searching questions. He relished asking them and created a classy debate.

Food Disposal is government policy and Havering is new to it. David wondered if officers had done comparative research to avoid reinventing the wheel. The answer: not much.

Havering’s two year contract for non-obligatory caddy bin liners is £1million. Havering is bankrupt. Barry (9 minutes) wanted to withdraw his proposal but was ignored. Gillian Ford (17 minutes) said bin liners should be provided and stopped later on. Good luck with that!

Natasha Summers (48 minutes) wants to reduce homelessness costs.³ The policy will save £1.8m over ten years. Meanwhile bin liners will cost £1m over two years. Converting a Basildon office building will provide 34 units. Havering residents will be shipped out to Basildon for their housing needs.

Michael White (50 minutes) showed political Leadership. He pursued the implications of the policy for residents and Basildon. He said homeless people are shuffled around and Havering was a victim of inner-London disposal policies. The savings are negligible and it is papering over the cracks.

These discussions implied cabinet members don’t critique their papers. They should be more than spokespersons for officers.

Notes

1 Annotator Player All timings refer to this webcast

1 5.0 amended Cabinet – Food Waste 22.01.2025 1.pdf

3 8.0 Cabinet Paper – Office to residential conversion to accommodate homeless families at Eastgate Ho.pdf

Council Meeting, 15th January 2025 (part one)

Attendance

Nine councillors (16%) were absent. Absenteeism like this is a *Red Flag* demanding action.¹ Item 7b gave permission to a councillor be absent because of serious illness and that is right and proper. But what of the other eight?

Question Time²

Keith Prince (13 and 22 minutes)³ asked two questions about libraries. Gillian Ford didn’t show leadership in either answer. Keith wondered what additional work Gillian had done to garner community support and extend the commercial side of the library estate. She hadn’t done anything. *Proactive* is forbidden territory for her.

Dilip Patel (45 minutes) highlighted the tragic case of an 85 years old lady who’d been without heating for a month. Paul McGeary mumbled. His gravedigger voice buried this annoying triviality and the moment passed.

Webcast

The quality is poor and worsening. Gillian’s answer to Keith’s second question featured the brooding figure of Barry Mugglestone. At 37 minutes Natasha Summers disappeared altogether being replaced by Luke Phimister’s name. David Taylor’s question wasn’t filmed at all and Jane Keane’s question was truncated. Computer King Paul Middleton should solve this shaming problem. It makes the council look incompetent.

Notes

1 Councillors attendance summary, 25 July 2024 – 17 January 2025 | London Borough of Havering Six (11%) have 50%, or fewer, attendances and that doesn’t include the member who is seriously ill.

2 Council Questions 15 January 2025.pdf

3 Timings relate to the webcast Annotator Player

Havering’s Secondary Academies: Their Progress 8 Rankings, 2024

The government’s performance analysis¹ creates a ‘level playing field’ for comparisons. The government’s Progress 8score is their tool of analysis. This is,

“The academic progress that pupils make from the end of key stage 2 to the end of key stage 4. This is based on 8 qualifications.”

Progress 8 predicts GCSE results based on a statistical analysis of KS2. KS2 results are an effective tool, which generates GCSE profiles for a school’s intake. The government uses five categories -Well Above Average, Above Average, Average, Below Average and Well Below Average.

A high Progress 8 score isn’t correlated with GCSE results. It is based on ‘Added Value’ that a school gives to their students. For example, Sacred Heart of Mary has a higher ranking than Coopers Coburn despite their GCSE results being similar. The higher ranking of Sacred Heart is because their 2019 intake had lower KS2 outcomes than Coopers. This implies Sacred Heart add more ‘value’ than Coopers.

Progress 8 doesn’t predict what any particular student will do. Students in every category of school will under, or over, achieve. Progress 8 is a statement about a school’s performance in general.

Well Above Average²

Sacred Heart of Mary, Campion and Harris Academy Rainham

Above Average

Royal Liberty, Coopers Coburn, Frances Bardsley, Hall Mead, Redden Court and Hornchurch High

Average

Gaynes, St Edward’s and Drapers’

Below Average

Abbs Cross, Emerson Park, Marshalls Park, Brittons and Sanders Draper

Well Below Average

Bower Park

Notes

Search results for “Havering” – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK
This list is in ranking order. Therefore, Sacred Heart is the highest-ranking school in the category ‘Well Above Average’. Likewise Royal Liberty, Gaynes and Abbs Cross in their categories

Havering and Redbridge’s Secondary Schools: A Comparison, 2024

The government’s performance analysis^1,2 creates a ‘level playing field’ for comparisons. The government’s Progress 8 score is their tool of analysis. This is,

“The academic progress that pupils make from the end of key stage 2 to the end of key stage 4. This is based on 8 qualifications.”

Progress 8 predicts GCSE results based on a statistical analysis of KS2. KS2 results are an effective tool and schools are measured against these expected outcomes. The government’s judgement is expressed in five categories -Well Above Average, Above Average, Average, Below Average and Well Below Average.

High achieving children at KS2 should, all things being equal, do well at GCSE. Havering’s Sacred Heart of Mary achieved 73.7% Grade 5+ English and Maths and is ranked Well Above Average. Coopers Coburn achieved 73.2% and is ranked Above Average. The implication is that Sacred Heart added more educational value than Coopers Coburn. (see Addendum)

Woodford County High has wonderful GCSE results. 98.9% achieved Grade 5+ English and Maths but isn’t Redbridge’s top ranking school. Seven Kings is ranked higher. Their Grade 5+ English and Maths score is 83%. Woodford’s intake has superior KS2 grades to Seven Kings and this is reflected in their lower Progress 8 score.

Progress 8: The Scorecard for the 36 Schools

Well Above Average Havering: 3 Redbridge: 9

Above Average Havering: 6 Redbridge: 5

Average Havering: 3 Redbridge: 3

Below Average Havering: 5 Redbridge: 1

Well Below Average Havering: 1 Redbridge: 0

Addendum: Named Schools in Ranking Order

Seven Kings 1/36

Woodford County High 6/36

Sacred Heart of Mary 8/36

Coopers Coburn 14/36

Addendum: Barking and Dagenham Outperforms Havering

There are eleven secondary schools in B&D. Five are rated Well Above Average. Havering has 18 schools with three at that level. This is a further illustration of the woeful quality of Havering’s secondary sector – all of whom are academies which, allegedly, improve standards.

Notes

1 For Havering Search results for “Havering” – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK and for Redbridge Search results for “Redbridge” – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK

2 Havering and Redbridge: A Tale of Two Boroughs – Politics in Havering This discusses these issues five years ago. Havering’s schools have since improved.