Havering’s Council Tax 2025-6

Havering Council is bankrupt. The usual explanation is the cost of Adult Services and Homelessness. That’s glib. Council Tax was introduced in 1991 by a panic-stricken Conservative government reeling from the Poll Tax riots. They planned valuation reviews every five years, after which council tax would be recalibrated reflecting property price inflation. No reviews have taken place. Areas with massive property price inflation, like Havering, haven’t had council tax adjustments.

Havering’s Council Tax 2025

In 1991 a £320,000+ band ‘H’ house¹ in Havering had a council tax of £1070. This equates to 0.33% of its minimum value.

In 2025 a band ‘H’ property is worth about £2m.³ Council tax for band ‘H’ is £4,627, which is 0.23%. This doesn’t look much but it is a 30% difference.

Council tax has significantly reduced for band ‘H’’ property owners since 1991.

Inflation since 1991

Band ‘H’ houses were valued at £320,000+ in 1991. Using standard inflation, that increased to £733,720 in 2025.⁴ House price inflation is a multiple of standard inflation. A 1991 £320,000+ house is now £2,157,601,⁵ an inflation rate of 574%.

Council Tax is a failure

Political cowardice by governments has bankrupted Havering.⁶ Council tax is a failed mechanism for funding council services.⁷ Continuing to use 1991 valuations is ludicrous.

Correcting 34 years of inertia will take political courage………I’m not holding my breath.

Notes

1 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

2 Properties For Sale in Emerson Park | Rightmove

4 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

5 House price index | Nationwide

6 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering This was written in 2020 but the analysis is still valid though the examples are historic.

7 George Osborne’s Age of Austerity programme, 2010-16, put the knife to the throat of Havering’s finances and matters more than sub-optimal increases in council tax.

The Political Importance of Ipswich vs West Ham, 25th May 2025

The Premier League relies on immigrants. The 22 players who began this match came from ten countries.¹ Eleven players were British (50%) and another ten countries are represented. (Only the Congo had more than one player.)

Both managers were British, which is odd. Only four managers in the Premier League are British and this game had half of them.²In contrast the Liverpool vs Crystal Palace game had 32% of British players. Neither of their managers is British. The two principal trophies in English football were won by immigrants.³

Politicians ignore this, using emotional speeches. Nigel Farage places the restriction of immigration front and central in his Reform Party political message.⁴

Premier League clubs spend fortunes on players, most of whom are immigrants. This commercial decision explains why preemptive positions on immigration are absurd.

Other sectors of the economy make similar but less spectacular decisions. Higher Education has 18% of its workforce as immigrants and the NHS has 17.7%.⁵The 2016 Brexit vote, notoriously, hit the hospitality sector very hard indeed as immigrants left.

Premier League football illustrates the importance of immigrants to Britain’s success. English football and its story reappears throughout the economy.

Negative political discourse about immigration is toxic and socially destructive.

Addendum

Eberechi Eze, a Crystal Palace and England footballer, is the son of Nigerian parents. He epitomises ‘British’ values. His charity provides opportunities in south London.⁶

Notes

1 Starting Lineups – Ipswich vs West Ham | 25.05.2025

2 List of current Premier League and English Football League managers – Wikipedia

3 Starting Lineups – Liverpool vs C Palace | 25.05.2025 See also “…..because of their [immigrant] backgrounds, typically from poorer countries, they do not take success or prosperity for granted. That is an ideal combination of factors for success.” How to find the most talented people on earth – Marginal REVOLUTION

4 Nigel Farage demands complete ‘halt’ to immigration as it ‘devalues UK’ | Politics | News | Express.co.uk see also REFORM 2025 LTD overview – Find and update company information – GOV.UK Reform isn’t a political party. It is a private company owned by Farage and others.

5 Number of non-EU academics in UK rises | Times Higher Education (THE) see also NHS staff from overseas: statistics – House of Commons Library

6 ‘Giving back is in our hearts’ – Eze on impacting South London – News – Crystal Palace F.C.

Havering’s Annual Council, 21st May 2025

The meeting saw the election of the mayor for 2025-6.¹ Even though Havering’s mayoralty is non-executive, it has significant powers. Havering’s multi-party council means the mayor’s casting vote is decisive whenever there’s a tied vote. The principal duty of the mayor is as an ambassador for the council.

The meeting itself was riveting for political geeks. Speeches of congratulation to the out-going mayor, Gerry O’Sullivan, were gushing. Dilip Patel’s “amazing work”, Gillian Ford’s “incredible year” and Christine Vickery’s, “a lot of fun” give a flavour of the contributions. Gerry himself said it had been “wonderful”.

The meeting continued with Ray Morgon’s tour d’horizon, which stressed HRA’s achievements.

His devotion to lobbying is undiminished. Ray is lobbying for Fairer Funding for local authorities. He made a throwaway remark about the government loan, £100m+, which glossed over Havering’s financial disaster. The chances of a Conservative outer-London borough successfully lobbying for additional funding in the current economic situation is nil. Ray has a cast-iron case but that isn’t enough politically speaking.² Ray remains a True Believer in lobbying.

Ray identified his transport successes achieved in the last year. Of especial note was the Gallows Corner renewal programme, the SuperLoop bus service and possibly Beam Park station. Interestingly the East Havering Data Centre isn’t a done deal but the reason why not wasn’t even hinted at.

His laboured references to Crystal Palace’s success didn’t entertain or inform. It was a relief, even for geeks, when the meeting ended after an hour or so.

Notes

1 The new mayor is Sue Ospreay, her deputy is Barry Mugglestone.

2 Havering’s Election: An Undemocratic Democracy? – Politics in Havering The political consequences of Austerity were felt by Havering’s two Conservative MPs who nearly lost their seats last year.

Andrew Rosindell: Parliamentary Speech, 7th May 2025

Andrew’s lengthy speech discussed Havering and Greater London. His speech was autobiographical and historical. He began with a long list of Havering’s Essex roots.

Havering is an Essex region with long historic connexions. He cited his home address, St Edward’s church, Essex county cricket club, and the water supply from Essex and Suffolk amongst many other examples.

Andrew outlined the baleful impact of Greater London, which has led to, “60 years of muddle, confusion and constant debate about whether Romford and Havering remain part of Essex or not.”²

Andrew says Havering is paying too much for too little because it’s a London borough. He airily remarked it cost, “…tens of millions of pounds per year.” Andrew didn’t say how much Havering pays, though the data is readily available. Assertions should be supported with facts.

Andrew claimed ULEZ should have been avoided.He believes ULEZ is a ‘Bad Thing’- people with respiratory illnesses probably disagree. Andrew added that his constituents disapproved of Greater London but provided no polling data.

Policing is a major issue. Andrew says Havering suffers as a London borough. He said, “….if you speak to my constituents, they will tell you that they believe Havering residents are in effect subsidising inner London areas…” Amazingly Andrew didn’t remark that Havering, who are bankrupt, pays an additional £1 million to the MetPolice to guarantee local policing.

Leaving London would mean Havering losing the beloved Freedom Pass. Pensioners adore it and they are reliable voters. Andrew wants the Freedom Pass extended to contiguous counties. This means TfL would take control of links into London. TfL will become far larger if Andrew’s proposition is supported, which implies a ‘levy’ on the new areas.Will they be pleased to pay the price?³

Andrew’s heart-felt sincerity came through loud and clear and was praised by the minister, Jim McMahan. He said, “I pay tribute to the hon. Member for championing his area and for the very clear passion that he has for the place he represents.”

Notes

1 Bing Videos and Havering Borough and Essex Devolution – Hansard – UK Parliament

2 All quotes are from the Hansard report of the speech

3 The Freedom Pass isn’t free. Havering pays £8m p.a. for access to the system.

The Magnificent Two: Hornchurch and Romford

Havering has been named the worst place to live in Greater London in a new study….[because of] natural beauty, wellbeing, heritage and culture, schools and jobs, and value for money.¹

There are five categories used in this judgment. The article received wide-spread coverage despite the authors being deluded. Havering has two of the very best centres in outer-London. Focusing on the Magnificent Two:, we find regional centres of excellence in very different arenas.

Hornchurch

Hornchurch is the centre of the regional hospitality scene. Its bustling high street is populated by thriving pubs, restaurants, café society and entry level eateries. To the north is the wonderful Queen’s Theatre, which is the centrepiece of the culture quarter. A quality library, the Fairkytes centre, and a grade two listed building in Langtons, which opens on to Langtons Park. Immediately to the east is St Andrew’s church, which is a grade one building The church is an entry point for the War Graves cemetery.

Hornchurch is an unmistakeable urban masterpiece.

Romford

Romford exists in a challenging retail environment. Think of the competition. Lakeside to the east, Westfield to the west and e-commerce. Multi-billion pounds of predatory retail.

Romford is thriving. Why?

The irreducible fact is that people like shopping near to their homes with human contact. Transport is a key ingredient in Romford’s success story. It’s a transport hub for every element in society. Links to all parts of the borough are quick and easy by public transport and, for car drivers, car-parking is guaranteed on busy days.

The principal shopping malls are attracting new activities, which further enhance the allure [CP1] of the town centre. An entrepreneur has opened a cinema for a vote of confidence in Romford.

The worst place in Greater London? Balderdash!

Note

1 Havering named the worst place to live in Greater London | This Is Local London

[CP1]

Drapers’ Academy and Disadvantaged Students

[Nationally] 25.2% of disadvantaged pupils and 52.4% of all other pupils got a grade 5 or above [in GCSE English and Maths]¹

Drapers’ Academy should be experts in educating disadvantaged students. In 2024 they entered 89 disadvantaged students for GCSE. They have a critical mass enabling the school to pivot teaching to their needs. Achieving Gold Standard GCSEs, which are Grade 5+ for English and Maths, for the disadvantaged demands robust strategies. Poverty doesn’t cause the under-achievement of disadvantaged children but there’s a correlation.²

Drapers’, in 2024, beat the national average. Their disadvantaged students achieved 28.1% Gold Standard.

Drapers’ Academy is managed by Queen Mary University, London. A university management trust should utilise their research expertise with GCSE results. They’re a diagnostic tool for research. Once data is analysed they can recommend the best strategies for improving outcomes.

St Edward’s Academy, Romford³actively research the achievement of the disadvantaged. (see Addendum two) In 2024 they achieved significantly superior⁴ results to Drapers’. If replicated at Drapers’, seven extra Gold Standard successes would have occurred.

The government’s 2024 Pupil Premium payment for Year 11 at Drapers’ was a minimum of £93,450.⁵ Did that £93K raise standards? Drapers’ are committed to Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Model of Child Development.⁶ GCSE results in 2024 didn’t endorse its insights.

Drapers’ had 89 students facing significant challenges in 2024. They have huge amounts of Pupil Premium funding, an academic management team and a desire to succeed. If St Edward’s can do it why not Drapers’?

Addendum One: Drapers’ Academy, Chair of Governors

Oliver Everett is a Liveryman of the Drapers’ Company. He is a farmer and a consultant specialising in the link between the private sector and government, working extensively in Africa. Outside work, he is an Entrepreneur Mentor in Residence at London Business School.

Addendum Two: St Edward’s and their access to research

Having Unity Research School as part of Unity Schools Partnership means that Unity’s schools have instant access to evidence-based information which they can use in the classroom to improve outcomes for pupils, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds. In an age of over-whelming amounts of pseudo-evidence, Unity Research School provides a solid and trustworthy source of information, proven to work in school settings and can help each school apply the evidence so that it is relevant to their setting and pupils’ needs.⁷

Notes

1 Attainment at age 16 – Social Mobility Commission State of the Nation – GOV.UK

2 https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/correlation

3 Results by pupil characteristics – St Edward’s Church of England Academy – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK They aren’t a privileged school. 36% of their students in 2024 were disadvantaged. Coopers Coburn had 5% disadvantaged students who achieved three Gold Standard passes.

4 Seven doesn’t look much but it is 28.5 percentage points greater.

5 The 89 students would have generated several hundred thousand pounds of Pupil Premium funding over their five years at the school

6 Pupil Premium – Drapers’ Academy

7 Unity Research School | Unity Schools Partnership

Havering’s Secondary Schools: Two Government Assessments

Havering’s schools have two forms of government assessment. Firstly, Progress 8 predicts GCSE results by using a statistical analysis of KS2. Schools which add value means children will out-perform their expected grades. Secondly, OFSTED reports. They happen at multi-year intervals. Inspectors grade schools using five headings, (1) Overall effectiveness, (2) Effectiveness of leadership and management, (3) Quality of teaching, learning and assessment, (4) Personal development, behaviour and welfare and (5) Outcomes for pupils.

Progress 8

Well Above Average¹

Sacred Heart of Mary, Campion and Harris Academy Rainham

Above Average

Royal Liberty, Coopers Coborn, Frances Bardsley, Hall Mead, Redden Court and Hornchurch High

Average

Gaynes, St Edward’s and Drapers’

Below Average

Abbs Cross, Emerson Park, Marshalls Park, Brittons and Sanders Draper

Well Below Average

Bower Park

OFSTED

OFSTED uses four summary categories Outstanding, Good, Requires Improvement and Inadequate. Reports aren’t annual and not necessarily current.

Outstanding

Hall Mead, Redden Court, Sacred Heart of Mary, Francis Bardsley (3 categories out of 5), and Royal Liberty (short inspection)

Good

Every other school.

Discussion

There’s no correlation between the two government assessments.

OFSTED criteria, Quality of teaching, learning and assessment and Outcomes for pupils are critical for every stakeholder using the reports.

How can a 22% GCSE Grade 5+ English and Maths pass rate for disadvantaged children at Abbs Cross² be rewarded by a ‘Good’ assessment. OFSTED say, Trustees, leaders and staff have high expectations for all pupils, including those with special educational needs and/or disabilities (SEND). (my emphasis). ‘High expectations’ in this context is overblown.

Likewise, Marshalls Park. 42.1% non-disadvantaged children passed Grade 5+ English and Maths and are rated ‘Good’. This result is 5% below the national average and 10% below the Havering comparator. Worse: disadvantaged children achieved a sickening 21.8%⁴ English and Maths Gold Standard pass rate at Marshalls Park.

OFSTED reports aren’t fit for purpose. Their reports lack rigour and ignore outcomes which are important to society. Progress 8 focuses on added value, whichschools create. OFSTED ignores these insights. This is a criminal dereliction of duty.

Notes

1 Search results for “Havering” – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK See also Havering’s Secondary Academies: Their Progress 8 Rankings, 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 Abbs Cross Academy and Arts College – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK Grade 5+ English and Maths is a Gold Standard acting as an entry point for many post 16 opportunities

3 Abbs Cross Academy and Arts College – Open – Find an Inspection Report – Ofsted

4 Results by pupil characteristics – Marshalls Park Academy – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK

Back to the Future: learning from history

One proposed approach presented to Cabinet is the development of 18 fully equipped modular home units within the area allocated for the final phase of the Waterloo & Queen Street regeneration scheme, in Romford.¹

The Blitz left thousands of people homeless. In 1942² Churchill’s government began planning for housing the homeless post-war. He chose prefabricated houses because they were quick to erect. They were kitted out with equipment considered luxurious,

For a country used to the rigours of the outside lavatory and tin bath, the bathroom included a flushing toilet and man-sized bath with hot running water. In the kitchen were housed such modern luxuries as a built-in oven, refrigerator and Baxi water heater, which only later became commonplace in all residential accommodating.³

Post-war prefab housing, which was intended to be ‘temporary’.

The war bankrupted Britain and the American Marshall Plan⁴ hadn’t begun.There was a shortfall in building materials making the job harder. Prefab houses were an act of genius. They were built on vacant land. With the destruction of London, there were many sites and further east in Romford.⁵ Notwithstanding the challenges, they pushed forward immediately in 1945-6.

They planned for 300,000 homes with a life expectancy of 10 years but many lasted far longer. Post-war families were given stability for their families.

Havering in 2025 isn’t recovering from war but has a housing crisis. Because of their statutory duty,

“…..the Council was forced to overspend its temporary accommodation budget by £6 million.⁶

In 1942 Churchill decided housing was too important to leave to market forces. The Attlee Labour government fulfilled his programme by building hundreds of thousands of houses. 40 years later Maggie Thatcher destroyed public housing, unleashing a crisis.

Will modular houses begin a new era of social housing?

Notes

1 Cabinet approve temporary homes solutions to help tackle housing crisis | London Borough of Havering

2 Prefabs in the United Kingdom – Wikipedia

3 loc.cit. See this site for wonderful insights into prefab houses Prefabs – Palaces for the People

4 Marshall Plan | Summary & Significance | Britannica

5 prefab houses in romford – Search Images

6 Cabinet approve temporary homes solutions to help tackle housing crisis | London Borough of Havering

I’m giving a talk: Are Havering’s secondary schools fit for purpose?

22^nd April 2025 at 8pm at Fairkytes Hall, Hornchurch for the Fabian Society

There will be a Q&A session afterwards

Havering Council Meeting, 26th March 2025 (part two)

“This Council recognising the importance of volunteers in supporting local people and organisations calls on the Administration to evaluate its arrangements and policies supporting the Havering Volunteer Centre…” Havering Volunteer Centre¹

The principal purpose of council meetings is debating motions. The council allocates 75 minutes for debate. Any councillor can contribute.

The opportunity to hold the Administration to account escaped the cold dead hands of opposition councillors at this meeting.

One Motion Only

Allocated Time ~ 75 minutes: Time used in debate ~ 26 minutes

Jane Keane (1 hour 10)² began the debate with a thorough analysis of the role of volunteers. She highlighted the necessity of the Havering Volunteer Centre. This is a council owned property and rent could triple to £36,000 p.a. Jane emphasised the Centre’s location on Romford high street. The building is shared with three other volunteer groups.

David Taylor (1:15) discussed the added value of the voluntary sector, which is calculated at £20bn nationally. Viddy Persaud (1:18) said the Havering sector is valued at £1.2m. The human importance was movingly spoken of by Tim Ryan (1:28). Tim described the support his family received for his very ill father. Joshua Chapman (1:19) spoke of “social infrastructure” and its incalculable value.

Matt Stanton (1:26) named names. He described the work of one volunteer. By drilling down into specifics he made the debate concrete just like Tim.

Gillian Ford (1:20) discussed the alternative accommodation which had been offered but had been deemed unsuitable by the Volunteer Centre. Keith Prince (1:24) paraphrased Oscar Wilde³ by saying the Administration knew the cost of everything but the value of nothing.

Ray Morgon (1:31) supported the motion. Unfortunately, he also employed the term ‘reckless’ three times, alongside “have to evaluate”, “funding streams” and “fear-mongering”. Presumably this means ‘hard choices’ will be made.

Council Meeting

Allocated Time ~ Two hours 45 minutes: Time Used ~ One hour 36 minutes

Addendum: Questions and Debate Topics

As councillors are struggling to find questions and debate topics perhaps they should ask their constituents?

Notes

1 Motions.pdf

2 Annotator Player All times relate to the webcast

3 Oscar Wilde: ‘What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.’ — The Socratic Method

Havering Council Meeting, 26th March 2025 (part one)

Question Time¹

Question time (QT) is a regulated activity. A maximum of 15 questions to be answered in 45 minutes. Any question can be asked of any cabinet member and councillors are permitted a supplementary question. Supplementary questions are difficult for cabinet members because they are unprotected by officers.

QT is perfect for scrutiny. Unfortunately, it relies on councillors doing their homework before the meeting. Even worse, it relies on councillors asking questions.

The Conservatives asked five questions. Four were posed by David Taylor. None were asked by *superstar* Keith Prince or the Conservative Leader Michael White. This contrasted with five questions posed by Labour. Four Labour councillors asked questions. East Havering RAs have three members and they asked two questions. Cranham RAs didn’t ask a question.²

There were supposed to be 55 councillors at this meeting.³ Seven asked questions but King Lethargy triumphed. 48 councillors didn’t ask a question. The allocated 15 questions weren’t utilised and the cabinet jog-trotted through their answers.

QT is pitiful.⁴ Councillors are semi-professional and don’t understand their role in the council chamber. There aren’t any *new* members now. They’ve all been in office for three years. Havering’s councillors are semi-detached.

15 questions allocated ~ 13 questions asked.

45 minutes allocated ~ 33 minutes used.

Addendum: Former Councillor John Mylod

John Mylod died recently and, as usual, councillors offered eulogies. Also, as usual, they spoke at length. The eulogies lasted 18 minutes.⁵ They were in the comfort zone of heart-warming remarks about a former councillor. Meanwhile 33 minutes was spent discussing the performance of the council, which is in crisis.

Notes

1 Council Questions 26 March 2025.pdf

2 They only have two members and I don’t know if they are entitled to ask questions.

3 Six offered apologies but I didn’t see Damian White so it may be that there were 7 absences. 12.7%.

4 Annotator Player From 36 minutes onwards

5 Annotator Player From 10 minutes onwards