Havering’s Cabinet, 22nd January 2025

The Conservatives have their third leader since 2022. Michael White is a veteran from when the electorate elected Conservatives.

Barry Mugglestone (one minute)¹ introduced the borough’s ‘Food Disposal’ policy.² He had a blizzard of statistics and costings, which were meant to ‘shock and awe’. David Taylor (4minutes) had prepared searching questions. He relished asking them and created a classy debate.

Food Disposal is government policy and Havering is new to it. David wondered if officers had done comparative research to avoid reinventing the wheel. The answer: not much.

Havering’s two year contract for non-obligatory caddy bin liners is £1million. Havering is bankrupt. Barry (9 minutes) wanted to withdraw his proposal but was ignored. Gillian Ford (17 minutes) said bin liners should be provided and stopped later on. Good luck with that!

Natasha Summers (48 minutes) wants to reduce homelessness costs.³ The policy will save £1.8m over ten years. Meanwhile bin liners will cost £1m over two years. Converting a Basildon office building will provide 34 units. Havering residents will be shipped out to Basildon for their housing needs.

Michael White (50 minutes) showed political Leadership. He pursued the implications of the policy for residents and Basildon. He said homeless people are shuffled around and Havering was a victim of inner-London disposal policies. The savings are negligible and it is papering over the cracks.

These discussions implied cabinet members don’t critique their papers. They should be more than spokespersons for officers.

Notes

1 Annotator Player All timings refer to this webcast

1 5.0 amended Cabinet – Food Waste 22.01.2025 1.pdf

3 8.0 Cabinet Paper – Office to residential conversion to accommodate homeless families at Eastgate Ho.pdf

Havering’s Cabinet Meeting, 9th October 2024

The meeting dealt with awarding contracts. Every officer recommendation was agreed. Scrutiny was provided by Keith Prince who did a manly job. This was especially the case with the award of a Housing IT contract, Item 8.¹

Keith (1:04)² focused on the price range,

“Indicative Market Comparison Costs……Based on the extensive market assessment across eight suppliers it is estimated that the total value of the contract will be within a range of c.£970,000 to £2.4m for the potential seven year life cycle of the software …..(results of market assessment across eight suppliers)”³

There is a 147% range between lowest and highest. Keith found this curious. Just how could there be such an enormous variation for the same performance? The complex story took an interesting turn when the director of finance said she could vary these prices by a further half million pounds under delegated powers. Taking the lowest indicative price, that was a further 51%. Reading the cabinet’s ‘body language’, it was obvious they didn’t know about her delegated powers. (The papers will be rewritten reflecting this insight.)

Keith did an excellent job at this meeting.

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Ray Morgon’s attempt to suppress the Institutional Racism report hit another road block⁴ when the appeal against the Freedom of Information Tribunal judgment failed,

A judge ruled that the council’s grounds for trying to cover up the 400-page dossier were “inarguable” and had “no realistic prospect of success”. ⁵ (my emphasis)

He’s a sucker for punishment and might appeal against this judgement. The lawyers are loving it. Havering’s library users are less happy.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 09/10/2024 19:30 p97

2 Time is based on the webcast

3 loc.cit. p99

4 Institutional Racism and Havering Council – Politics in Havering

5 Information Tribunal rejects Havering Council racism dossier appeal | This Is Local London

Havering’s Bankruptcy and Margaret Thatcher

Thatcherite economics in 1979 was straight-forward. Income tax was reduced and capital assets lightly taxed to reward Conservative voters.¹ Lost revenue was replaced with massive increases in regressive taxes like VAT. George Osborne, a Thatcherite without the brains, introduced The Age of Austerity, 2010-24. His freezing of Council Tax ultimately made Havering bankrupt because lost revenue wasn’t replaced.

Ray Morgon borrowed £52m, at 7%, from the government to replace the lost revenue in 2024. This is like using credit cards for day-to-day spending, which is obviously insane. Worse, the council is selling capital assets to fill the hole Osborne made. (Bankrupt aristocrats call this, ‘selling the family silver.’) It’s a futile tactic to buy time.

In a full year, 2% of council tax will be needed to pay the interest on the loan.

Havering is bankrupt because council tax is too low.². Trivial *cuts* like four libraries reduce the deficit by £300,000.³ Havering’s budget is £180M.

What does inflation, 2010-24 tell us?

General inflation: 61%⁴

House price inflation: 100%+⁵

Council tax inflation: 46.7%⁶

The 2024-25 budget deficit is expected to be £32M.⁷This is caused by Council Tax not being inflation linked. Council Tax is a Property Tax.

House price inflation has been at least 100% because of the magic ofThatcherite economics. Wealth in assets is lightly taxed and rises in value. Or, as the Bible says, The rich get richer.⁸ Born-again Thatcherites like Andrew Rosindell probably know this. Meanwhile pot holes are a symptom of bankruptcy.

Ray Morgan and Gillian Ford should beg government for the freedom to set Havering’s Council Tax.

Notes

1 BBC Budget 97 “In his first [1979] Budget he raised VAT from….8% to a single rate of 15%….an increase in prescription charges from 20p to 45p and a major relaxation of exchange controls.” In the same budget higher rate taxation was reduced from 60% to 40%.

2 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering

3 Havering launches new library strategy | London Borough of Havering

4 £1 in 2010 → 2024 | UK Inflation Calculator (in2013dollars.com)

5 House Prices in Hornchurch (rightmove.co.uk) 11 Ravensbourne Crescent, Romford increased 142%. 17 Ravenscourt Grove, Hornchurch increased 117%

6 Previous years’ bands | Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering Using Band D.

7 Cabinet agrees “toughest budget ever” | London Borough of Havering The actual out-turn won’t be £32M because much expenditure is demand led and not quantifiable accurately.

8 Matthew 25:29

Havering’s Cabinet Meetings: 11th September and 18th September, 2024

Item 6: 11^th September

Assure Havering residents that the Council takes Hate Crime seriously and has robust mechanisms in place to help combat/reduce such behaviour; and · Inform victims and witnesses about the various support options currently available, including how to contact those specialist agencies.^1,2 (my emphasis)

The government requires councils to have *Hate Crime* policies. The policy is for Havering’s housing tenants. Paul McGeary (36 minutes)³, read a statement. He has no enthusiasm, it’s as if it’s an unwelcome chore. Keith Darvill (42) worried about costs. When told there were no additional costs he was still worried, which was surprising.

The schizophrenic cabinet endorsed this policy whilst paying a fortune to a King’s Counsel (KC). The KC will try to sustain the council’s position on the suppression of their report on racism amongst council employees.² Institutional racism, of course, is a hate crime. The report will be uncomfortable and unwelcome. It is, in the words of the Tribunal which decided the Romford Recorder’s Freedom of Information request, “of overwhelming public interest”.⁴ Therefore, it should be published.

Item 10: 25^th September

This item is a Performance Report on the Council. The ‘score card’ categories are as follows:

“· Red = Below target and below the ‘variable tolerance’ of the target

Amber = Below target but within the ‘variable tolerance’ of the target
Green = Above annual target.”⁵

The outcome isn’t flattering, with 41% being RED and a cause for concern.

Interestingly the IT document transmission failed and Opposition leaders only received a summary report. Keith Prince (1:32) believed it should be made public. Reading the Leader’s *Body Language* this is unlikely to happen.

Councillors spent three minutes (from1:31) on this item. Chummy cabinet meetings, with lots of bonhomie, are a tragic wasted opportunity. The public is ill-served when a 41% failure rate is shrugged off without comment.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 18/09/2024 19:30 (havering.gov.uk) p579

2 Institutional Racism and Havering Council – Politics in Havering

3 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) Times refer to this webcast. There wasn’t any sound until this item. This gelled with the members’ criticisms about the poor Council’s IT interface.

4 Havering Council seeks appeal over racism report ruling | Romford Recorder

5 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 25/09/2024 19:30 (havering.gov.uk) p184

Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell ~ Back from the Brink, July 2024

After the catastrophic general election, Julia and Andrew have reacted differently. They both had 82% reductions in their huge majorities.¹ What lessons did they learn from this experience?

Julia’s response is that she’s now a constituency MP. She’s ditching her nickname Invisible. Her new dynamism has been rewarded with many appearances in the Romford Recorder. Dynamic, caring, constituency work is Julia’s five-year project. She hopes to be the darling of Hornchurch and Upminster in 2029.

Andrew’s response is amnesia. Bad things happened during the last 14 years and they’re all Labour’s fault. Andrew admires Robert Jenrick,² who was Immigration Minister in Sunak’s government.

“For too long, mass migration has gone unchecked, placing unbearable strain on housing, schools, the NHS and on all public services.”³

That Andrew supports anti-immigration politics and Jenrick shows the power of amnesia.

He believes Romford needs red-blooded Conservatism and then he’ll be the darling of Romford once more.

Julia and Andrew suffered from a rampant Reform Party. Their actual strategy is to “really, really” pray Farage’s Reform party implodes. Otherwise, the 2029 election could be terminal for Julia and Andrew.

Notes

1 Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 Romford Recorder 27^th September 2024 p33 Andrew hosted Jenrick at his Romford HQ.

3 loc.cit.

Havering and the Loxford School Trust

Abbs Cross and Gaynes Academies are owned by Loxford Schools Trust, Ilford. Loxford school is ‘outstanding’. Their Leadership Team believe they can transfer their successful formula. They now own five secondary academies.¹

Academies are government funded businesses with Loxford receiving £50m.² The twelve person leadership team, earn between £100,000 and £250,000. (Their CEO earns £54,000 more than Havering’s chief executive.) Stellar salaries demand consistent stellar performance. Their principal challenge is under-achievement of Disadvantaged Students.³

The Gold Standard: Grade 5 GCSE in English and Mathematics

The national outcome for disadvantaged students is 25.2% Gold Standard successes. For non-disadvantaged students the national outcome is 45.2%. This huge gap must be bridged to be rated excellent. Loxford School is excellent. Their disadvantaged students achieved 56% for the Gold Standard. Loxford’s disadvantaged students beat the national outcome in both categories. An outstanding performance.

It’s a different story in Havering.

Abbs Cross Academy: 23% of their disadvantaged students achieved the Gold Standard.⁴

Gaynes Academy: 33% of their disadvantaged students achieved the Gold Standard.⁵

Neither come close to Loxford’s result. Nor do they come close to the national 45.2% for non-disadvantaged students. Loxford’s Havering schools haven’t closed the Attainment Gap.

Havering, in general, has significant problems with under-achievement by disadvantaged students. Only four schools out of 18 reach 45.2% with their disadvantaged students. Loxford massively exceeded the national outcome with their disadvantaged students.

Conclusion

Loxford Schools Trust have failed. Four of their six secondary academies are below the all-student Gold Standard. Tabor Academy is catastrophically below that standard. They should be humble and recognise their stunning success in inner-city Ilford hasn’t travelled well.

Addendum: Loxford’s other academies and their Gold Standard outcomes

Warren Academy

49% for disadvantaged students, which is above the national outcome for all students. Barking and Dagenham’s non-disadvantaged students achieved 54%. ⁶

Tabor Academy

15% for disadvantaged students. This is catastrophic and demands action from the *stellar* Leadership Team in Ilford. Essex’s non-disadvantaged students achieved 49%. ⁷

Cecil Jones Academy

25% for disadvantaged students, which is the national average. Southend’s non-disadvantaged students achieved a stunning 66%. ⁸

Notes

1 Governance Profiles – Loxford School Trust

2 LOXFORD 2023ACCSWIZ.cvw (loxfordtrust.s3.amazonaws.com) see p71

3 Key stage 4 performance, Academic year 2022/23 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk) Table 8 is an excellent summary

4 Results by pupil characteristics – Abbs Cross Academy and Arts College – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk) See also Havering’s GCSE Attainment Gap, 2023 – Politics in Havering

5 Results by pupil characteristics – Gaynes School – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

6 Results by pupil characteristics – The Warren School – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

7 Results by pupil characteristics – Tabor Academy – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

8 Results by pupil characteristics – Cecil Jones Academy – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

Havering’s 2024 General Election: The battlefield

The 2024 election produced a landslide victory for Labour but not in Havering. Surprisingly the Conservatives weren’t the beneficiaries of Labour relative ‘failure’. An analysis of the results shows the Reform Party spoiled the night for Labour and the Conservatives. Statistical clutter¹ has been deleted to leave the percentage vote for the three principal parties. (The aggregate results, if you want them, have been published by the council.²)

Beam Park

Labour 60.6%; Conservative 13.9%; Reform Party 13.7%

Cranham

Conservative 34%; Reform Party 29.1; Labour 26.7%

Elm Park

Labour 37.7%; Reform Party 27.4%; Conservatives 19.4%

Emerson Park

Conservatives 43.5%; Reform Party 26.1; Labour 21.3%

Gooshays

Labour 34%; Reform Party 28.9%; Conservatives 27.3%

Hacton

Conservative 33.1%; Reform Party 29.6; Labour 22.7%

Harold Wood

Conservative 29.8%; Labour 29%; Reform Party 28.5%

Havering-atte-Bower

Conservative 33%; Labour 31.1%; Reform Party 22.3%

Heaton

Labour 32.6%; Reform Party 28.4%; Conservative 25.9%

Hylands

Conservative 34.9%; Labour 30.4% Reform Party 21.6%

Marshalls Park

Conservative 40.5%; Labour 27.1%; Reform Party 20.2%

Mawneys

Conservative 37.1%; Labour 29.7% Reform Party 22.6%

Rainham

Labour 35.7%; Conservatives 27.6%; Reform Party 24.5%

Rush Green

Labour 35.5%; Conservatives 29.4%; Reform Party 22.2%

St. Albans

Labour 37.4%; Conservative 28%; Reform Party 21.9%

St Andrews

Conservative 32.7%; Reform Party 29%; Labour 26.6%

St Edwards

Labour 34.6%; Conservatives 34%; Reform Party 22.2%

South Hornchurch

Labour 39.9%; Reform Party 26.2%; Conservatives 21.5%

Squirrels Heath

Conservative 38.7%; Labour 29%; Reform Party 21.5%

Upminster

Conservatives 38.2%; Reform Party 27.5%; Labour 22.4%

Notes

1 https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/07/the-ultimate-2024-general-election-breakdown Many thanks to David A. for sending me this site

2 General Election 2024: Results | London Borough of Havering These are the overall results

Havering’s Election: An Undemocratic Democracy?

Regardless of the destruction of the Conservative Party, Labour came second in Romford and third in Hornchurch and Upminster. Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell were re-elected but were rejected by a majority of the electorate.

Julia Lopez

Julia was trounced by the anti-Conservative vote.¹She won her parliamentary seat with 15,260 votes. The other five candidates had 31,651 votes, which is 16,391 more.
Worse, the abstention rate was 37.65% of the 75,421 electorate. Julia became MP with 15,260 votes out of an electorate of 75,421. She won with 20% of the vote.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for her.

Andrew Rosindell

The same analysis applies to Andrew. He became MP with 15,339 votes and 27,808 actively opposing him. Turnout was 60%, which is 29,492 voters. Active and passive opposing votes = 57,300 voters and Andrew just reached the magic 20% needed for victory.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for him.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew are blameless. The British electoral system needs to be changed but won’t be. Change comes when winners cooperate and they like systems that deliver power. Meanwhile Nigel Farage’s Reform Party picked up 4 million votes and five seats. They, like the LibDems and Greens, suffer from the system.

Havering’s local elections are worse, much worse. Turnout was in the range 23.5% to 42.3%, in 2022. No ward achieved a 50% turnout. When do elections stop being democratic? Councillors could be elected with 2% of the vote.

Ludicrous as it seems, this is possible.

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024

Havering has hard-core Conservatives, as was demonstrated by Susan Hall trouncing Labour in May, 2024. The General Election result¹ was, as the bookies say, ‘a form result’. But was it?

Julia Lopez

In 2019 she had a majority of 23,308. This evaporated to one of 1,943 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic but when viewed locally, it accurately reflects the electorate. They vote Conservative and hold their noses. HRA have made the constituency a Tory-free zone. Worse, she is a poor constituency MP with no personal support.

Andrew Rosindell

In 2019 he had a majority of 17,893. This evaporated to one of 1,463 – a 92% reduction. This is catastrophic for a long-standing, hard-working constituency MP. Unlike Hornchurch and Upminster, Andrew’s constituency has a significant number of Conservative councillors. He’s well-known, is an expert campaigner and yet, his result mirrored that of the lack-lustre Julia.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew couldn’t be more different. She’s a political opportunist with a glittering career in the past. He’s an Essex man Tory. Andrew didn’t get a personal vote and Romford had their worst result since 1997.

Havering is changing. In Hornchurch and Upminster, the Reform party, from a standing start, came second. Reform isn’t a political party: They’re a private company owned by Nigel Farage. They’re a PR party tapping into the utter distaste and sense of betrayal that many voters feel about the principal parties. They’re Conservative party ultras who have voters who don’t know what that implies.

HRA are in the same territory. They also reflect the desire for change and have to operate outside their comfort zone. The question is, can they?

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering’s Elections, 2nd May, 2024

Havering is Conservative heartland. Although they appear to be in terminal decline nationally, that is fake news.¹ When everything is against them, their ‘tribe’ rallies round. Susan Hall² and Keith Prince³ romped home with substantial majorities against Labour. Grim national polling wasn’t reflected in Havering.

Susan Hall

Even her best friends wouldn’t describe her as dynamic. Her role was to be a sacrificial lamb facing slaughter. Her memorable ‘policy’ was scrapping ULEZ from “day one”. Despite her simplistic politics, she trounced Sadiq Khan by 32,000+ votes.

Keith Prince

He has been a GLA Assembly member for eight years. He avoided campaigning on his record during those years. This was wise. Keith is chair of GLA’s Transport Committee and Havering has major issues. First and foremost is the 50 year old Gallows Corner flyover, which is a blot on the landscape. Keith’s political strategy is wringing his hands in horror. This was unsuccessful with Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan.

Speculation

Conservatives should be worried about the Reform party – aka UKIP. They got 19,696 votes as a name on a ballot paper. Reform is popular in Havering, being right-wing without policies. Their voters think they can make a difference and they’re right.

Damian White lost in the 2019 general election because of UKIP.⁴It’s impossible to know the impact on Andrew Rosindell but his majority is 17,893. If there’s a general election swing and a right-wing party, then he might be caught in a pincer movement. Julia Lopez’s majority is 23,000+ and only a political tsunami will shift her.

Notes

1 Since 2022 there have been seven defections from the Conservatives to HRA

2 havering_and_redbridge_mayoral_results_2024.pdf (londonelects.org.uk)

3 GLA Elections 2024: Havering and Redbridge Constituency Member results | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering