Havering’s Politics and Political Leaders

Havering’s 55 councillors are divided into six groups. Their leaders are white, elderly men,¹ socially conservative and apolitical. Local politicians aren’t politicians, they are managers. George Osborne killed Local Government. This makes it difficult to know who to vote for or, even whether to vote at all. All that politicians can say is that they are, ‘On your side’, whatever that means.

So, what do voters do?

Vote as you’ve always voted;
Vote for someone who looks well meaning;
Vote for a novelty;
Vote against the government or;
Don’t vote.

Ageing politicians, and their cliques, are the inevitable result of anti-politics.

Political Leaders

Ray Morgon (25 councillors) Ray is leader of HRA and the council. He’s been a councillor for 23 years. He leads a minority administration. HRA isn’t a political party. It is an umbrella organisation. Its signature policy is 30 minutes of free parking time in Hornchurch and Upminster, which costs about £1m pa.

Michael White (16) Michael is leader of the Conservatives. He’s been a councillor for 30+ years. The Conservatives have diminished after numerous defections. If they are unlucky they could suffer a 2014 event and get wiped out.² Their signature policy is being ‘good managers’.

Keith Darvill (8) Keith is leader of the Labour party. He’s been a councillor for 23 years. They were part of the HRA coalition until Ray went solo. They rely on option one with people voting traditionally. Surprisingly they don’t have a signature policy.

Martin Goode (3) Martin is leader of the East Havering RAs. He’s been a councillor for seven years. His party is a pressure group in the traditional RA way. Utterly negative, nit-picking and without any policies apart from at-the-margins critiques.

John Tyler (2) John is leader of the Residents’ Association Independent Group. He’s been a councillor for seven years. He’s a ‘True Believer’ in the RA message. ‘No Politics, Focus on the Ward’ and leads a pressure group. He’s less effective than Martin.

Keith Prince (1) Keith is leader of Reform. He’s been a councillor for 35 years.³ Reform is the ‘novelty’ party for 2026. Using 2014 as a guide, and Farage’s charisma, he should do better than UKIP. His signature policy is a secret.

The 2026 Election: Politicians like winning but they might prefer to lose in 2026. Why? Havering is in a bad place and the winner will have to make very tough decisions, which they will probably hate.⁴

Notes

1 ‘Elderly’ = 65+

2 Havering Local Election Results 22 May 2014

3 Unusually he’s a GLA member and has been a councillor in Redbridge. He’s the most experienced councillor in the chamber alongside Michael White.

4 Winner’s curse – Wikipedia This is when a person convinces themselves of the value of something and win BUT they have mistaken the true value and end up worse than they were before.

Havering Council Meeting, 19th November 2025 (part one)

Havering is bankrupt and thirteen¹ councillors were absent from this council meeting. Collectively they ‘earn’ £140,000 pa. Perhaps ‘No show, no pay’ would improve attendance?

Eulogy for former Councillor Mike Davis

Mike was a councillor for 12 years and a champion of the underdog. Pat Brown did the honours with a brilliant six-minute speech. Mike was a multi-talented working-class intellectual. His crowning glory was as an inspiring leader in the Tenants’ Management Organisation. He was a national figure with close connexions to LSE and the national TMO organisation. Pat was deeply emotional but sufficiently composed to read one of Mike’s poems. Jane Keane saw Mike’s work at first hand as a tenant in his TMO and fully endorsed Pat’s heartfelt eulogy.

He was my friend for 40 years and I mourn him.

Question Time²

Q5) Keith Prince Following media reports of large-scale housing fraud in Barking and Dagenham Council,³ how many Council officers do we have checking for housing fraud in Havering?

Natasha Summers has three officers working for her combating fraud. They are so successful, there isn’t any fraud.

I tried to imagine Mike answering this question.

Three officers check 400 tenancies monthly. But three is nebulous. Each have between 31 to 46 days annual and public holiday leave.⁴ Then sick leave days⁵ must be added. Statistics suggest an annual 30 days of absence. So, 15% of the working year evaporates for the three anti-fraud officers.

Investigations are slow. ‘Seven’ as a daily target is an aspiration. Numerous call-backs must be included for chasing up people unavailable during the day. This adds to the workload.

Mike would have given a full answer so councillors could understand the magnitude of the task. He would then have asked for additional staff to save money. He would also have been a great deal less trusting then Natasha appears to be.

Notes

1 Councillors Anderson, Benham, Best, Chapman, Glass, McArdle, McKeever, Ruck, Tumilty, Vickery, Williams, White D, and White M: Councillors Anderson and Tumilty have long-term illnesses No explanations are needed otherwise. This is a quarter of all councillors. For attendance over the last six months see Councillors attendance summary, 29 May 2025 – 21 November 2025 | London Borough of Havering

2 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 19/11/2025 19:30

3 ‘Corrupt’ housing officers suspected of fraudulently allocating hundreds of east London council homes for cash | The Standard

4 how many working days in a year uk – Search

5 Sickness absence in the UK labour market – Office for National Statistics See especially fig.7 Local government employees have the highest amount of sick leave

Havering’s Silent Political Revolution, 2022-25

The Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) umbrella group was formed for the 2022 election. They had dramatic success and the Conservatives were ousted. An HRA-Labour coalition took their place.¹

The dodging and diving began immediately.

Within weeks, Rainham’s three Conservative councillors joined HRA. This set the scene for three years of shameless anti-democratic opportunism. Seven more councillors have ratted on the electorate, without troubling the electorate. Amazingly, an especially flaky councillor has done it twice.

Sarah Edwards, Jacqueline McArdle and Susan Ospreay

Rainham ward: From Conservative to HRA. And Jacqueline McArdle: From HRA to Conservative when she changed her mind again.

Philip Ruck and John Tyler

Cranham ward: From HRA to Cranham Independent ~ John was an associate HRA member but Philip definitely did defect.

Paul McGeary

Gooshays ward: From Labour to HRA. This was spectacular. 1) He smashed the coalition and 2) he, importantly for him, kept his £25,000 pa cabinet position. He’s unlikely to keep his seat in 2026.

John Crowder

Havering-Atte-Bower ward: From Conservative to HRA

Phillippa Crowder and Robby Misir

Marshalls and Rise Park ward: From Conservative to HRA

Keith Prince

Squirrels Heath ward: From Conservative to Reform. This is notable as Keith is one of the most senior politicians in Havering.

And a special mention for,

Damian White

Damian hasn’t defected. He’s sulked since losing the Conservative leadership toKeith Prince. Damian has had very poor attendance for three years.²

Conclusion

Eleven potential by-elections haven’t happened. By-elections are not obligatory. It is, however, undemocratic to change parties and deny voters the chance to approve or not. Most defections are ‘froth’ without political significance.

Keith’s defection matters because he believes HRA’s domination is ending. He also thinks the Conservatives will become a rump, like the Labour party. Keith’s defection is a significant ‘straw in the wind’.

Havering’s bizarre politics will continue in 2026.

Addendum

As predicted 2026 saw more movement. This time is was Andrew Rosindell MP who defected to Reform on the 18th January. Political geeks can hardly wait for the May 2026 local elections.

Notes

1 5 May 2022 Local Election Results in Havering

2 Your Councillors | London Borough of Havering This is correct as of 9^th November 2025. For attendance for the last six months see Councillors attendance summary, 18 May 2025 – 10 November 2025 | London Borough of Havering

Havering’s Air Quality and the Launders Lane Scandal (part one)

This Scrutiny Committee did a very good job.¹ Stakeholders were present from the community, alongside senior officers of organisations involved in air quality and the Launders Lane scandal. All the participants made contributions, which were very interesting and informative.

The Fire Brigade

The Borough Commander said (57minutes) the Launders Lane scandal dominates his work. He’s spent a hundred hours strategising, creating a safe working environment and on-site direction. Launders Lane is unique. Fire-fighters can’t access the site because it’s unstable. The surface of the land conceals cavernous holes. The holes, and toxic air, are a dangerous working environment for fire fighters.

Public Health

The borough Director was chilling (11) about air pollution.²

‘The science is now overwhelming; air pollution is a major driver of disease across the life course – from low birth weight and childhood asthma to heart attacks and dementia. It must be recognised and treated as a public health issue.³

The Director said, 5.7% of deaths in Havering were air pollution related (1:24). It’s impossible to directly attribute deaths to the Launders Lane fires because of Havering’s poor air quality.⁴ Air pollution is invisible except when spewing out of land accompanied by fire. The Director was saying, in effect, Launders Lane draws attention to Havering’s permanent air pollution. Astonishingly, he said (1:46) the air pollution adjacent to Romford bus depot was worse than that of Launders Lane. As a consequence, he couldn’t recommend specific health warnings other than boroughwide.

Community Representatives

Rainham Against Pollution (45) Their representative felt the only way to deal with Launders Lane was to flatten the land. There were comments on the grim outcomes for residents of living with constant fires and being ‘prisoners’ in their homes during the summer months.

Friends of the Earth (51) Their representative pointed out that dumping toxic materials which led to fires wasn’t unique. Land had been successfully remediated and lessons were there to be learned.

Clear the Air in Havering (54) Their representative spoke evocatively about the health impacts of polluted air. The health crisis has been created by poor decision-making and a lack of urgency.

Conclusion

The ultra-late decision by HRA to declare Launders Lane ‘contaminated’ looked suspiciously timed to stifle debate. It failed. Part Two discusses the councillors’ debate, which was probing and forensic.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee, 21/10/2025 19:00 for the webcast see Annotator Player All times relate to this (57 minutes becomes 57)

2 Health matters: air pollution – GOV.UK This is a national study For Havering the government has produced a comprehensive study How health has changed in your area – Office for National Statistics Air pollution worsened between 2015 and 2021 and is about 10% above the national average

3 Air pollution linked to 30,000 UK deaths in 2025 and costs the economy and NHS billions, warns Royal College of Physicians | RCP

4 London’s ULEZ cut air pollution — high vehicle compliance left little room for post-expansion gains – University of Birmingham This paper is about London in general. However, see Havering’s ULEZ Data (davidtaylor.online) Here there is evidence that Havering’s air pollution has been reduced by ULEZ see also Havering, ULEZ and Public Health – Politics in Havering

Keith Prince and the Reform Party

Keith is a career politician. He’s spent his life making political calculations which were for his party, the community and himself.¹ In local political terms he’s been very successful.² Keith earns £66,390 as a GLA member plus his Havering allowance of £10,750. His calculation is probable oblivion with the Conservative Party, or, a Reform Party triumph.³

Keith is a career politician. He has his eyes on the Rosindell fiefdom, which is the Romford constituency. Keith licked his lips at Andrew’s nail-biting *victory* in 2024. It was the beginning of a trend. The tectonic plates of British politics have shifted and destroyed old certainties.⁴ The shift will destroy politicians who aren’t agile enough to go with the flow.

ULEZ and Brexit showed the powerful undercurrents of dissatisfaction in Britain. People are taking back control from career politicians who have failed them since 2010. The colonization of lamp-posts for the St George flag is another powerful symbol of a desire for fundamental change. People are tired of career politicians pivoting around focus groups.

Radical change is hated by career politicians. Their cute sound-bites are destroyed and they have to produce a new narrative, which sounds insincere to a sceptical public. Career politicians are a disaster. They live in a bubble, which is self-reinforcing and ignores the wishes and desires of the public. Well now they have a wake-up call.

Keith has gambled and Andrew is a born-again Thatcherite.⁵

Notes

1 Keith Prince vs Damian White: 2022 Conservative Leadership Contest – Politics in Havering

2 Salaries, expenses, benefits and workforce information | London City Hall

3 Havering’s election is in 2026 and the GLA in 2028

4 Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell ~ Back from the Brink, July 2024 – Politics in Havering

5 Andrew Rosindell and the Reform Party – Politics in Havering and see also BREAKING: Havering Has Its First Reform Councillor As Keith Prince Defects. – The Havering Daily

Havering Cabinet Meeting, 3rd September: The Launders Lane Debate

The cabinet was instructed to report on 20+ years of the appalling situation in Launders Lane, Rainham.¹ HRA aren’t to blame.² They inherited this débâcle from Conservative administrations. But HRA’s three+ years of inertia is haunting them. They really, really want to be positive but lawyers, and legislation, are stifling their ambitions. The crushing defeat in the Judicial Review³on their decision-making about Launders Lane hasn’t taught them anything. Luckily for HRA, the opposition hasn’t learned anything from the Judicial Review either.

The cabinet meeting was a parallel monologue between the Chief Executive (CE) and Leader. It was tightly scripted. For example, between the 5^th and 9^th minute Ray and the CE echoed each other.⁴ They monotonously blamed lawyers. Firstly, the legislation was unclear and secondly, they were cautiously trying to get the ‘right decision’. The dynamic duo said the Judicial Review had castigated them for being too quick. (see addendum). This went unchallenged because opposition councillors hadn’t read the Judicial Review.

Gillian Ford chipped in. She said that the concept of smoke wasn’t legally clear-cut and this caused problems with attributing health risks to Launders Lane fires. A legal ruling might impact on bonfires, which would be a disaster. Later she said the Judicial Review had caused delays in the decision-making process. She implied it was a ‘Bad Thing’ and the people of Launders Lane only had themselves to blame for delays.

Keith Darvill worried, in his cautious, hesitant way, about the lack of urgency. He was told he knew about legal delays because he’s a solicitor, which I thought was cruel.

Mostly it was self-serving drivel but one gem made the torture of listening to speeches through a brick wall using a milk bottle worthwhile. The CE said that finance wasn’t a consideration in the decision-making.This was endorsed by Ray Morgon. Activists should be dancing in the streets.

Addendum: The Judicial Review, paragraph 105
“I [the judge]am concerned that the LA [Local Authority] appear to have been very confused about the correct legal approach to this site through the decision making process.” (my emphasis)

Notes

1 FORM A These are the cabinet papers for the Launders Lane discussion. The webcast audio was abysmal Annotator Player
2 HRA is an umbrella organisation uniting Resident Associations. RAs worshipped ‘Letting sleeping dogs lie’.

3 Clear the Air in Havering, R (On the Application Of) v London Borough of Havering [2025] EWHC 1492 (Admin) (17 June 2025)

4 Normally I’d cite times but the recording was so abysmal, I suffered on your behalf.

Romford’s Conservatives Prepare for 2026

Romford Conservatives have had a torrid time since 2022. They lost control of the council for the first time since 2002 to HRA.¹ Then they fell apart. They’ve had defections and three leaders in three years. Slowing the terminal decline is Mission Impossible.

Worse! There’s a right-wing alternative biting their ankles. The Reform Party is a private company owned by Nigel Farage as an off-shoot to his ego. They are a novelty and will give the Conservatives, HRA and Labour a hard time in 2026.

Romford Conservatives have a Rosindell loyalty test,

“I [Rosindell] am pleased that in Romford, we now have a united and loyal team of Conservative candidates, who will work with me to secure victory next year.” (my emphasis)²

Havering-atte-Bower is interesting. John Crowder defected to HRA, Damian White sulked for three years, and Ray Best has retired – did he want to? So, three newbies in what was a safe ward.

Marshalls and Rise Park had two defections and Conservatives have deselected Osman Dervish – unless he retired. This *safe*(?) seat has attracted two footloose and fancy-free councillors: Robert Benham and Nisha Patel. Did they make a good choice? Roll on 2026.

St Edward’s has been culled as Rosindell worries about loyalty. All three councillors have been ousted. Nisha Patel legged it before getting the bullet. Astonishingly, David Taylor was deselected because he is an effective campaigner. Veteran councillor Joshua Chapman left. Why? Who knows? Three newbies in a competitive election looks like poor tactics. But Rosindell has won elections and possibly knows what he’s doing.

Addendum: Political groups and their candidates

No word on HRA candidates apart from the chaotic St Edward’s. They are persisting with RA cliques for their candidates.

Hornchurch Conservatives will probably have a ring round for candidates in January to maintain the pretence that they are a political party. Does Julia Lopez know?

Labour will probably get round to announcing candidates.

Reform will take anyone that comes along.

Notes

1 HRA are an umbrella organisation cobbled together from Resident Association groups.

2 NEW TEAM 23 CANDIDATES SELECTED TO FIGHT HAVERING LOCAL ELECTIONS IN ROMFORD | Romford

Havering’s Council Meeting, 3rd September 2025 (part two)

Motions for Debate¹

Motions are the lifeblood of council meetings. Policy is discussed and scrutinised.² Havering’s housing crisis is caused by sky high house prices, student debt and massive deposits. Family networks and communities are broken up.

Two motions about housing were interesting. After Paul McGeary’s train crash answer about HMOs,³ the motion became redundant. Social Housing⁴ is sadly neglected. There are low profits for house-builders and politicians seem to dislike poor people. The Conservative motion was a wonderful surprise.

“This Council recommends a revision of the Mercury Land Holdings business plan, to focus the company on delivering much needed social homes and driving down temporary accommodation costs.” Motion B

David Taylor (1:40) made a brilliant speech. He explained the economics of social housing as a win-win for the council and those in need of secure, regulated housing. Additionally, the community benefits of social housing were discussed in compelling detail. David linked the HMO debate by showing social housing is vastly superior and a cheaper option than HMOs. David was supported whole-heartedly by Keith Darvill (1:50) and Frankie Walker (1:58). For Conservatives to get support from Labour is encouraging. It shows councillors aren’t party robots.

Graham Williamson ((1:45) doesn’t understand his brief. He spent five minutes trying to remember what officers had said prior to the council meeting. He failed. Likewise, finance defeats him. Graham doesn’t do his homework or, just doesn’t get it. Ray Morgon (2:01) winged it. He should have done a forensic analysis of David’s speech and responded.

The result? HRA lost the vote (2:07) but will it change policy? Meanwhile…..

3,000 residents languish on council housing waiting lists

Addendum: Singing the National Anthem

The Mayor (2:13) introduced the National Anthem – badly. This prefaced the worst singing I’ve ever heard. It destroyed the dignity of the National Anthem. They should be ashamed of themselves.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 03/09/2025 19:30 The Motions for debate The webcast is at Annotator Player All times for speeches refer to this webcast

2 Eight councillors were absent or, 14.5%. This is average and still shocks me.

3 HMOs = Housing of multiple occupancy see also Havering’s Council Meeting, 3rd September 2025 – Politics in Havering

4 What is social housing? – Shelter England

Havering’s Council Meeting, 3rd September 2025

Question Time (QT)¹

The 2026 election is fast approaching. QT is designed for councillors to strut their stuff prior to the election. Penetrating questions are asked to embarrass the Administration and make colleagues cheer. There’s a flurry of newsletters, Havering Daily articles and an inner-glow after flaunting their excellence for constituents.

So how did they do?

Two types of questions. The dedicated ward councillor working hard highlighting failures of the Administration. The second type relates to scrutiny of performance. At this meeting the balance was 50:50.

Local Issues

Jane Keane (23 minutes and 33)² asked questions on fly-tipping and air pollution from idling cars. Barry Mugglestone disliked the idea of a ‘Wall of Shame’ for fly-tippers. He was cornered because of its novelty and wasn’t sure how popular it might be. Philip Ruck (17) didn’t appreciate only the police could enforce the 20 mph zones. Darren Wise (26) was brushed off about recycling bags. Robert Benham (45) was also brushed off by Barry, who had returned to form.

Policy Issues

Questions about policy are embarrassing for HRA because cabinet members are weak. Graham Williamson didn’t know social and affordable housing are different categories in his answer to David Taylor’s (27) question. Likewise, Chris Wilkins. He floundered answering a penetrating question from Martin Goode (15). The question related to LBH’s bankruptcy and his lack of understanding made me flinch.

Paul McGeary plumbed the depths of ignorance. He said *ILLEGAL* HMOs³ weren’t shut down because they added to the homeless figures. Housing can be completely illegal and it doesn’t matter as long as tenants don’t turn up on the council’s doorstep. This was an *answer* to Tim Ryan’s (30) brilliant question. Is it the case that Havering ratifies *ILLEGAL* HMOs to massage the housing figures? Is this policy?

Conclusion

QTs was good for the Opposition parties but will they build on their successes? Probably not.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 03/09/2025 19:30 The QT questions The webcast is at Annotator Player

2 Times refer to the webcast

3 HMO = houses of multiple occupation

Havering’s Council Tax and the USA’s Alternative

Council tax reflects property values in the 1990s. The promised five yearly value reviews never happened because of political cowardice.

Property tax is reviewed annually in the USA, “…The amount of tax is determined annually based on market value of each property on a particular date.”¹ New Jersey has the highest rate at 1.89% and the lowest is Louisiana’s 0.18%.²21 states are above 1% and then the range is between Louisiana and Florida’s 0.97%.

So what?

The benchmark used for this blog is Maryland, whose tax rate is 0.87%. They are at the USA’s mid-point property tax rate. Havering’s average house price is £451,000.³Using Maryland’s 0.87%, the council tax would be £3,923.70 for an average house, instead of Band D’s £2,313.^4,5

Detached houses in Emerson Park average £1,125,079. Their effective council tax is 0.41% or less.⁵ In Havering, high value houses are under-taxed under the American property tax system.

Council tax is a failed property tax, which is political dynamite. Havering’s Band H houses would have a council tax increase from £5,161 to £9,788 if Maryland’s rate was used.⁶ Havering’s financial woes are 30+ years old. The financial crisis was created by Conservatives and maintained by cowardly successive governments.

Council tax is a sick joke benefitting the rich.

Addendum: Louisiana’s 0.18% property tax

Louisiana is *Third World* in many ways. Life expectancy is 72 years⁷ and literacy is 72.9%.⁸ If Louisiana was a country it would be failed state. It is an example of low tax levels destroying society. (A £3m house in Havering has Louisiana levels of property tax rate as a percentage.)

Notes

1 Property tax in the United States – Wikipedia

2 Property Tax Rates By State 2025 – Tax-Rates.org

3 Housing prices in Havering See also Havering Housing Market | Price trends and market breakdown

4 Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering

5 House Prices in Emerson Park Two houses are for sale at £3m+ and several at £2m+, which reduces the percentage that council tax represents.

6 A £3m house would pay £26,100 council tax in Maryland instead of £4,627 in Havering.

7 Louisianans’ life expectancy is lower than national average – Axios New Orleans In Britain it’s 87 years Life expectancy calculator – Office for National Statistics

8 Louisiana Literacy Rates – Studyville Literacy in Britain is 99% Literacy Rate in UK Statistics 2025 | Illiteracy Rate UK – The Global Statistics