Timeline
Andrew was a councillor between 1990 and 2002. He spent 12 years getting control of Romford Conservatives and has been a backbench MP since 2001. Andrew panicked when his majority collapsed by 82% in 2024.1
Political Calculations
The Reform party is the first viable third party since the 1920s. Unlike Farage’s UKIP and Brexit, Reform is the real thing. In 2024, Reform’s unknown candidate got 9,624 votes in Romford. Romford is now a marginal seat, and Andrew doesn’t have a ‘job for life’.
But what is Andrew joining?
Nigel Farage owned the Reform Party until recently,
“….[it] was founded in 2018 as a private limited company, with Farage holding the majority of shares.2
Reform doesn’t have policies. Farage’s previous efforts were pressure groups in drag. Reform’s current policies mimic Trump and Musk. Musk’s DOGE policy3 was endorsed in their 2025 local election campaign. Successful Reform groups tried, and failed, to implement DOGE.4
Reform voters were seduced by a slick PR campaign. The reality is more-of-the-same with ex-Conservative councillors in control. This is disappointing for voters hoping for a novelty.
Andrew knows this.
So, what happened in January 2026 to get Andrew to risk everything? Perhaps Suella Braverman offers a hint. She
“…..referred to homelessness as a “lifestyle choice”, who called pro-Palestinian marches “hate marches”…..who suggested asylum seekers were “pretending to be gay” to claim protection, a hard-right Conservative has joined Farage’s ‘people’s party’.5
She’s joined Reform. Reform don’t have policies but do have a direction of travel and Andrew wants to go there. He approves of Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick.6 Andrew wants red-meat right-wing policies, which persecute people he doesn’t like.
And that’s a lot of people.
The Downside
Andrew believes Romford’s voters voted for him. He’s oblivious to the implications of the 2024 result. Andrew ‘lost’ 9,624 votes to a complete unknown and 13,876 to Labour. 2029 will be a three-way election. Andrew is an ex-Conservative who won’t have the support he’s used to after 36 years of belonging to the Romford party and electioneering is his comfort zone. Campaigning in 2029 as a Reform candidate will be a challenge for him. And it isn’t difficult to imagine the leaflets by ex-colleagues who think he is treacherous.
Farage relies on charisma, which has a shelf-life. His money-grubbing tactics repel many voters. Voters resent politicians who line their own pockets. Andrew works hard and has a great reputation, but he’ll be tarred with the Farage brush. Reform is an abnormal political party. It’s a fiefdom. If Reform get critical mass, Farage will have severe problems because he isn’t a team player.
Conclusion
Andrew’s political journey matches that of Britain. The 1980s saw Margaret Thatcher’s policy driven Conservatism, which has shaped Britain ever since. Her Conservatism has been replaced by shameless ‘Get-rich-quick’ opportunists. Andrew is a hard-working MP. Farage rarely goes to his constituency and is wedded to Donald Trump’s utter disdain for morality.
Notes
1 General Election 2024: Results | London Borough of Havering
2 Nigel Farage gives up ownership of Reform UK – BBC News
5 Former home secretary Suella Braverman defects to Reform UK | Suella Braverman | The Guardian
6 Robert Jenrick claims cartoons mural removed from asylum centre were ‘not age-appropriate’ | The Independent He wanted to make an asylum centre for children more threatening and less welcoming.
Politics in Havering 