Havering Council: The Merry-Go-Round

Ray Morgon cobbled an administration together from Havering’s many Residents’ Associations (RAs) in 2022.¹ They were rebranded Havering Residents’ Association. His second coup was a coalition with Labour. He’d filled the power vacuum left by the Conservatives and took power

And then the Merry-Go-Round began.

Sarah Edwards, Jacqueline McArdle and Sue Ospreay joined HRA a few weeks after being elected as Conservatives in 2022. Ray Morgon doesn’t care why. What’s important is they landed in HRA. The voters of Rainham weren’t consulted.

John Tyler is a Refusenik. He dislikes Labour and didn’t join the coalition, opting for ‘independence’ (or at least that’s how the story goes). Cranham is a hotbed of dissatisfaction. Phillip Ruck left HRA creating a political party² with John. He wants the Finance cabinet post and won’t get it, so why not rock the boat? The voters of Cranham weren’t consulted.

Robby Misir joined HRA after many years as a Conservative councillor. The end of Damian White’s pot-of-gold politics might have been a push factor. Who knows? Could self-interest have motivated him? The voters of Marshalls and Rise Park weren’t consulted.

St Andrew’s ward has stopped being boring. Paul Middleton, Gerry O’Sullivan and Bryan Vincent have fallen out. Paul isn’t in RA newsletters any more but remains in the cabinet. Is HRA strong enough to impose discipline on these apparently warring factions? Voters will be consulted in 2026.

Addendum

Three Romford Conservatives have joined HRA, this week, to escape that toxic zone. They are husband and wife team John and Philippa Crowder along with Christine Smith. Is this a reverse take-over by Romford who lust for power but can’t get it? This makes it seven Conservatives fleeing their party since 2022.
Notes

1 HRA = Havering Residents Association

2 Cranham Residents Association Independent Group

Havering Council Meeting, 27th March 2024

The Conservatives had a humdinger of a motion for debate (see Addendum). It challenged the HRA/Labour *solution* to the budget deficit.¹This naïve commentator waited for fireworks from political heavyweights debating the future of Havering.

What should have happened

Keith Prince would denounce the £54m loan as reckless folly, mortgaging the future. He pointed out that £54m @7% for 20 years creates a stonking £68m² in interest payments, more than doubling the original debt. Keith could continue that the loan ‘kicked the can down the road’. In 2026 everything would be the same with Adult, Children’s Services and Homelessness turbo-charging the deficit. What, Keith thundered rhetorically, would Ray Morgon do then? Borrow another £54m?

Ray Morgon would angrily riposte that defending government funding was bizarre. In 2010, Havering’s grant was £70m and in 2023, £1.9m. Meanwhile, after 14 years of government mis-management, inflation added 47% to costs.³ Therefore, Havering needs a £103m grant just to stand still! Additionally, the council had unfunded responsibilities. Homelessness came from government policies with enormous costs for the council. Ray might finish by saying everything will be different in two years’ time.

What did happen

Ray Morgon and Keith Prince agreed not to have a debate and went home two hours earlier than usual.

Addendum: Conservative Motion

This chamber calls on the council to release to the public the full letters, from the Government Ministers and from the Leader, regarding the Capitalisation Directive. The chamber calls on the Government to provide the funding as a grant instead of a loan.⁴

Best speech: None

Runner-up: None

Best sarcasm: Barry Mugglestone

Notes

1 Havering Council: Budget Setting – 28th February, 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 It might not be, we haven’t seen the T&Cs yet. Actually the money is ‘drawn’ down over the next two years so the £68m is calculated for 18 full years of interest.

3 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

4 Public reports pack 27th-Mar-2024 19.30 Council.pdf (havering.gov.uk) p117

Romford’s Brewery Car Park and Pricing Theory

Increasing car parking charges is political dynamite for Havering’s councillors. They have to increase charges because of impending bankruptcy but want to avoid alienating voters.

None of the councillors have run multi-site carparks according to their Register of Interest¹ statements. Yet they make commercial decisions worth millions of pounds! This is a recipe for failure.

Both photos taken on the 27th March 2024 mid afternoon

The Brewery car park has massive capacity but is half empty. Modern pricing theory² will solve this challenge. Calibrating price to demand is familiar and used by many companies. This includes the Brewery car park which increases prices on Saturdays. The car park also charges extra for convenience. The surface car park is significantly more expensive than the four levels of the multi-story section.

Increasing demand is a win-win outcome. More usage equals more income without increasing the cost base. What’s not to like?

The Brewery car park is adjacent to a railway station and centrally zoned for retail, commuters and office workers. They are priced out. A more aggressive and sophisticated pricing regime should be introduced. A season ticket with six entries for £35 could be very attractive and an even more keenly priced monthly ticket likewise.

The Brewery Multi-story Car Park is in wonderful location and a commercial flop. Why?

Notes

1 mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk) This is Mandy Anderson’s, which was chosen because she’s first on the list. Every councillor has a statement.

2 Uber cabs vary prices almost minute by minute depending on demand. As do the airlines and many other companies. For the Brewery carpark see Plan Your Visit – Brewery Romford (thebreweryromford.com) accessed 29^th March 2024 The surface carpark is 50% more expensive than the multi-story for 2 hours.

Havering’s People Overview and Scrutiny Committee, 5th March, 2024 (part two)

This agenda included a Housing item and the School Performance analysis. The latter is the focus of this blog.

Matt Stanton (1 hour47)¹expressed concerns about how wide the variations in achievement between schools are. He asked the Director what was needed to rectify this problem. Trevor Cook replied ‘Context’ was needed to understand the issue. This is pivotal as it implies underachievement is inevitable. It chimed with remarks about fortunate authorities who suffered less from Covid-19 and had superior funding.

Praising Hall Mead and Redden Court damaged his argument. In 2019 both were below average.²They’re now average. This happened during five challenging years. Their performance has improved in the Covid-19 and Funding Crisis years.

The 2019 list of eleven below average schools has reduced to six in 2024.⁴ Emerson Park has dropped into the ‘below average’ group since 2019. A third of Havering’s secondary schools are below average (6 out of 12) and five schools left the 2019 list.

Matt’s concerns were echoed by Frankie Walker, Mandy Anderson and Judith Holt. Judith believed every Havering school should be above average. She refuted Trevor Cook’s response about Covid-19 and Funding. Her actual doubts related to whether his explanations were correlation or causation. All of Havering’s schools share the same challenges but nonetheless there are massive differences in outcomes.

Trevor Cook is soothing. However, members were in a combative mood looking for action. Some academies are successful but others are weak. A third of Havering’s schools are below average, which is far too many.

Notes

1 Agenda for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee on Tuesday, 5th March, 2024, 7.00 pm | The London Borough Of Havering Go to webcast and then to one hour 47 for the beginning of his contribution

2 Havering and Redbridge: A Tale of Two Boroughs – Politics in Havering 29^th Nov 2019

3 All schools and colleges in Havering – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk) This gives the current status of every school in Havering.

4 Schools leaving the 2019 list are Abbs Cross, Hornchurch High, Royal Liberty, Redden Court and Hall Mead

Havering’s People Overview and Scrutiny Committee, 5th March 2024 (part one)

This committee is a tragic commentary on the failure of three unnamed councillors to fulfil their obligations. There are three vacancies on this committee, two years after the 2022 election.¹

The People committee should have 12 members. It has nine. Two HRA and an East Havering RA councillor have let the side down. This damages the committee’s ability to do its statutory duty. Topic groups can’t be formed because there are too few councillors to fill places.

Six HRA councillors aren’t on any of the three Overview and Scrutiny Committees. They are: Councillors Edwards, Glass, Godwin, Misir,² Williams and Wood. In the six months from 19^th September 2023, five councillors had a maximum commitment of five meetings.³John Wood’s commitment was three meetings.

Remembering that councillors are paid £200 a week, this ‘workload’ isn’t onerous. The vacancies on the People committee could be filled without inconveniencing anyone. Meanwhile, Darren Wise, East Havering RA, hasn’t got a place on any Overview and Scrutiny committee. He will fit in beautifully on the People committee to make up the numbers.

Overview and Scrutiny is central to local democracy. It is outrageous that this committee isn’t at full strength. Havering is being sold short.

Addendum: Attendance

Ray Morgon and Gillian Ford should get a grip. Two HRA members* were absent without substitutions. Given HRA’s two vacancies they were actually minus four councillors.

*Jacqueline McArdle and Julie Wilkes

Notes

1 Agenda for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee on Tuesday, 5th March, 2024, 7.00 pm | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Robby Misir has just joined HRA and so the sympathetic figure should be five.

3 Councillors attendance summary, 19 September 2023 – 13 March 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering Council: Budget Setting – 28th February, 2024

Question: Havering is going bankrupt.¹ What did councillors do in the budget?

Answer: Dug a deeper financial hole.

(They took a government loan of £54m, without increasing Council Tax to pay the £3.4m annual interest therefore adding to the shortfall.)

Chris Wilkins (11 minutes)² His dreadful speech showed a tragic lack of awareness.

Keith Prince (29) Two minutes of ‘Thank you’ name checks was ‘padding’. A more-or-less content free speech followed.

Keith Darvill (44) The government loan is expensive – £3.4m in interest – but the ‘only’ option. Otherwise, he made sound political points.

Martin Goode (56) His speech was hesitant and expressed dismay at the loan proposition.

Phillip Ruck (1 hour 05) He discussed the loan’s implications. The £54m will be consumed in two years followed by a death spiral!

Judith Holt (1:33) She pointed out the iniquity of the Residents Parking Permit for those living in terraced houses without off-street parking.

Barry Mugglestone (1:39) Oblivious to budget problems. He loves 30 minutes free car parking in Hornchurch, where he lives, and £900,000 for five police officers.

Mandy Anderson (1:44) A considered speech. The budget is a ‘valiant effort’, which is damning it with faint praise.

David Taylor (1:47) He said the budget involved choices. He illustrated this with the million-pound subsidy for Hornchurch carparking.

Martin Goode (1:53) He liked the idea of government commissioners. Nothing would change as the council had no control anyway. The loan was dreadful.

Keith Darvill (1:58) Havering should grow the economy and, therefore, get more council tax. This is ‘a wish and a prayer’ economics.

Keith Prince (2:03) More nit-picking.

Ray Morgon (2:08) Summary remarks claimed it was a “budget of necessity”, which sort-of conceded Goode’s point.

Best Speech: Phillip Ruck

Runner-ups: Mandy Anderson and David Taylor

Audacious Proposition: Dilip Patel – a lottery to pay off the £54m shortfall

Wooden Spoon: Chris Wilkins

Notes

1 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering This is four years old but the principal points hold good

2 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) Time refers to when speech began

Havering Councillors’ Attendance: 1st August 2023 – 24th January 2024

A Councillor who is absent from all meetings of the Council and any committees of which they are a member for a period of six months automatically ceases to be a member of the Council unless they have been given leave of absence by the Council before the expiry of that six month period – s.85 Local Government Act 1972

Havering’s 55 councillors must attend committees¹ at least once every six months. Failure to attend means they lose their seats. (Councillors don’t lose their seats if they ignore their constituents.)

Councillors usually have legitimate reasons for missing meetings, which are accepted without challenge. In brief, they’re always given the benefit of the doubt.

Full attendance need not be onerous. John Tyler, Jacqueline Williams and John Wood attended four meetings each in six months for a 100% attendance record. Full attendance is the target but less than 50% needs explaining.

How did Havering’s councillors do?

Thirteen had full attendance. All parties are represented – seven HRA, three Conservatives, and one each East Havering RA, Independent and Labour. Just three out of nine cabinet members had full attendance.

Six councillors attended for 50% or less – four Conservatives² and two HRA. The worst attender is Sue Ospreay, HRA, with a shocking 28.6%. This implies incapacity or malaise. Either way HRA should get a grip to resolve this affront to democracy.³

The least the electorate expect is that councillors ‘turn up’. 50% attendance or less is a disgrace without exceptional circumstances.

Notes

1 Councillors attendance summary, 1 August 2023 – 24 January 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering Data base accessed 25^th January 2024

2 Robby Misir has defected to HRA. He’s currently got a 50% attendance rate presumably it will improve with his new colleagues.

3 Perhaps the problem is that Havering has too many councillors? See Does Havering have too many councillors? – Politics in Havering

Havering Council Meeting, 17th January 2024 (part one)

Keith Prince had a tour de force (1 hour18)¹ His motion was opportunist (see addendum) building on the anger that SEN children’s school transport should be ‘reviewed’. It’s believed this will reduce the quality of the service. (A clue is a possible £1.4m saving over four years.).²

Keith said HRA and Labour amendments were out-of-order. This isn’t a technicality. If they were out-of-order, HRA and Labour would be caught in a cleft stick. They’d have to vote FOR the motion and lose £1.4m. Alternatively, vote AGAINST and show they were ruled by accountants.³

The Monitoring Officer rescued them. In an excruciating passage he wriggled⁴ and produced a ‘solution’. HRA’s amendment was accepted and the review of SEN transport continues its ‘consultation’ period.

Oscar Ford (2:08) kept remarking on ‘cost effective’ transport and Havering’s financial position. Unfortunately, an option is Uber. Robert Benham (2:13) noted Uber allocates drivers randomly and many children need continuity or get distressed. David Taylor (2:28) commented on Uber’s surge pricing mechanism, which makes predictions impossible. Ray Morgon (2:41) quoted a comment from ‘someone’ who said cabbies were making ‘thousands of pounds’ from SEN transport to bolster his argument.⁵ No evidence, no names.

Keith Darvill (2:21) politicised the issue in a telling speech.

Addendum: The Conservative Motion

“This Council calls on the Cabinet not to proceed with the proposed cuts and changes in service, proposed in the Home to School Transport consultation. It further recognises that such cuts would have a detrimental impact on both children and parents, causing them increased stress and anxiety.” (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 17/01/2024 19:30 (havering.gov.uk) p39

Notes

1 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) All times refer to this webcast The item begins at 1 hour 18 minutes and finished at 2:01 hours = 33 minutes of debate.

2 Several councillors noted they’d spoken to protestors outside the Town Hall. Specifically, Cllrs. Persaud, Taylor and Wise who made comments in their speeches

3 Typically this is known as a lose-lose situation

4 Giving a minute-by-minute timeline to ‘explain’ why the cock-up wasn’t his fault. And then discovered an arcane sub-clause ‘rarely’ used to defend the indefensible.

5 This is an example of Confirmation Bias where *evidence* is used to support an argument and countervailing points are ignored or downplayed

Havering’s Cabinet Meeting, 10th January 2024

Scrutiny of council policies and contracts depends on councillors doing their homework. Scrutiny is hard work and can feel like a waste of time. At this meeting every decision passed without a vote. Was that reasonable?

Item 5 should have been the virtually silent Paul Middleton’s great moment. Astonishingly, the item wasn’t *ready*. The current IT contract ends on 7^th March 2024. Delay could mean the contract will be renewed without scrutiny. I hope the delay isn’t a way of avoiding scrutiny. The Horizon scandal has shown cosy relationships can be disastrous and expensive.

At this meeting every decision was passed with virtually no discussion. Only Keith Darvill chipped in on an item that wasn’t his.

Martin Goode attends meetings, despite not being a cabinet member. He does his homework, asks hard questions and isn’t fobbed off. He identified a difficulty in the NHS partnership for rehabilitation services. NHS have committed £900,000 but only for one year. This is crucial as the contract lasts three years plus extensions. “What happens in year 2 if the NHS don’t continue the £900K?” The unfortunate answer is that those benefitting would cease to receive the service.

Keith Prince believes the rehabilitation service saves the NHS and LBH money. This might be wishful thinking as there’s nothing in the papers about savings.

Keith continued on another item by asking about the lack of toilet facilities for bus drivers at terminus points. The answer was ‘tough luck’. He let it pass.

Note

1 Annotator Player (sonicfoundry.com) This webcast is about 30 minutes long