Category: Havering Council

Havering’s Councillors: The Democratic Deficit in Action

Havering councillors are mostly male, elderly, wealthy property owners.1 Their biases are revealed when setting the council’s budget. The classic example is the 30 minutes free parking policy, privileging motorists above other, non-statutory, priorities. It isn’t hard to imagine what a council with a majority of young mothers, would prioritise. Council tax payers are paying for the biases of councillors, which is the price of the democratic deficit.

Home-owners

Havering’s councillors are relatively old, with a third being 60+, which implies they are home-owners.2 Home-ownership is revealed by Register of Interests statements.3 Additionally sixteen councillors (29%) own two or more houses, making them very wealthy.4

Religion

Inexplicably Council meeting begin with Christian prayers. 30% of British people say they’re atheist, with only half claiming to be Christian.5  It’s probable most councillors are token Christians, atheist, or, of other faiths. Prayers are said by a priest offering Divine Guidance.

Diversity

A fifth of Havering’s residents weren’t born in Britain.6 They aren’t represented in the council chamber. Neither are the under 35s or the disabled.

Allowances

Astonishingly councillors receive an ‘allowance,’ which they qualify for by attending one meeting every six months.8 Nine cabinet members are paid £35,000, which is just below the average wage of Havering’s residents. Two get more. Five cabinet members work and their £35,000 is for a part-time role.9

Discussion

This is the outcome of Havering’s democratic deficit. No-one is to blame.Very low turnout at local elections is grim proof of the deficit. Active politics is a minority ‘sport’ with few willing to participate, even marginally. Democracy is about who can be bothered. Havering’s council accurately reflects the democratic will of the people.

Like it or not.

Notes

1 Your Councillors | The London Borough Of Havering Councillors don’t reveal their age but the Register of Interests points to 32% being retired. Five female councillors are retired. Collectively 42% of Havering’s councillors are retired. This isn’t definitive and it’s possible the figure is larger, and very unlikely to be smaller.

2 Chapter7olderpeoplechapter7v21.pdf (haveringdata.net)

3 The Register of Interests is a legal document, which is treated with contempt by some councillors. Classically there is Ray Best’s ‘statement’.  mgConvert2PDF.aspx (havering.gov.uk) Most councillors fill in their Register statements diligently

4 Housing prices in Havering (ons.gov.uk)

5 How life has changed in Havering: Census 2021 (ons.gov.uk) see also The Church is losing an entire generation. Here’s what you can do about it | Magazine Features | Premier Christianity The other 20% belong to various non-Christian religious faiths

6 loc.cit

7 *Young* is ambiguous and will become more so when the voting age is reduced to 16 years old.

8 Councillors attendance summary, 15 January 2024 – 9 July 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

9 For the list of principal allowances which are in addition to the basic £10,412 for all councillors  Issue – items at meetings – MEMBERS’ ALLOWANCES SCHEME | The London Borough Of Havering Councillors set the amounts they receive through a vote.

Havering’s Election: An Undemocratic Democracy?

Regardless of the destruction of the Conservative Party, Labour came second in Romford and third in Hornchurch and Upminster. Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell were re-elected but were rejected by a majority of the electorate.

Julia Lopez

Julia was trounced by the anti-Conservative vote.1 She won her parliamentary seat with 15,260 votes. The other five candidates had 31,651 votes, which is 16,391 more.
Worse, the abstention rate was 37.65% of the 75,421 electorate. Julia became MP with 15,260 votes out of an electorate of 75,421. She won with 20% of the vote.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for her.

Andrew Rosindell

The same analysis applies to Andrew. He became MP with 15,339 votes and 27,808 actively opposing him. Turnout was 60%, which is 29,492 voters. Active and passive opposing votes = 57,300 voters and Andrew just reached the magic 20% needed for victory.

A stunning 80% didn’t vote for him.

Discussion

Julia and Andrew are blameless. The British electoral system needs to be changed but won’t be. Change comes when winners cooperate and they like systems that deliver power. Meanwhile Nigel Farage’s Reform Party picked up 4 million votes and five seats. They, like the LibDems and Greens, suffer from the system.

Havering’s local elections are worse, much worse. Turnout was in the range 23.5% to 42.3%, in 2022. No ward achieved a 50% turnout. When do elections stop being democratic? Councillors could be elected with 2% of the vote.

 Ludicrous as it seems, this is possible.

Note

1 General Election 2024: Results | The London Borough Of Havering

Havering Council: The Current Position – 25th June, 2024

Analysing Havering’s politics is as futile as nailing jelly to the ceiling. Councillors change sides and voters are ignored. Will ‘Carry on Splintering,’ lead to a third administration in four years?

Havering Residents’ Association 2022: 19 councillors: NOW: 26

HRA came second in 2022 and formed a coalition with Labour. Seven Conservative and a Labour councillor have joined them, leading to a Minority Administration. HRA lost a councillor when Philip Ruck defected to Cranham RAs. [UPDATE: 2nd July 2024 a defection from HRA to Conservatives. This is playground politics.]

Semi-detached councillor: Paul Middleton doesn’t appear on St Andrew’s HRA literature.

Conservative: 2022: 23 councillors: NOW: 16

Romford Conservatives have suffered badly from three Conservative Prime Ministers: Boris ‘Partygate’ Johnson, Liz ‘Bonkers’ Truss and Rishi ‘D Day’ Sunak. Councillors have caught the vibe and seven have defected.

Semi-detached councillor: Damian White with two attendances in six months.1

Labour: 2022: 9 councillors: NOW: 8

Labour came third and entered a coalition with HRA, which collapsed when Paul McGeary defected. Will Labour be an effective opposition?

East Havering RAs: 2022: 3 councillors: NOW: 3

They supported the Conservatives, 2018-22. Tiny, but could be pivotal in the future.

Cranham RAs : 2022: 1 councillor: NOW: 2 councillors

They are ‘True Believer’ Residents. They should fear the Data Centre proposition, which is toxic for their core supporters.

Summary: Disgracefully, nine councillors have changed sides without by-elections.2

2024-6: Ray Morgon’s Captain Birdseye impression at Annual Council,3 conceals a ruthless politician. Keeping HRA together will be difficult as the Labour government maintains the current funding regime. Removing limits on increases in Council Tax leaves HRA exposed. Substantial increases in Council Tax will be necessary to avoid another ruinous loan.

Can HRA take the pressure? Probably not.

Notes

1 Attendance record – Councillor Damian White | The London Borough Of Havering

2 The churn is 16%

3 Havering’s Annual Council, 22nd May 2024 – Politics in Havering

Havering’s Cabinet, 12th June 2024

HRA have seamlessly become a minority administration. Opposition leaders Keith Prince and Keith Darvill were absent and only Martin Goode provided scrutiny. He understands ‘opposition’. The key ingredients: turning up and doing homework.

New cabinet member Natasha Summers spoke via Zoom (7 minutes).1 She then switched off her Zoom connexion. Someone should have asked a question to see if she’d left the meeting. (Cabinet members usually stay throughout meetings by-the-by.) Natasha’s presentation avoided the complex financial regime underpinning the contract for social housing (11 minutes) so perhaps that’s why she left.2

Ray Morgon wanted Chris Wilkins to be great. Chris dodged the bullet. His contributions at 1, 15, 18, 23 and 26 minutes were soulless readings of officer statements. Unlike Question Time super-star Barry Mugglestone, Chris doesn’t convince when he’s reading. Martin tried probing questions which Chris sidestepped, leaving answers to officers. Bizarrely3 (26 minutes), in an unscripted comment, he said he was going to lobby the new government. Good luck with that!

The £54M borrowing facility is untouched. It’s very expensive and could be a major expansion item in 2025-6. The systemic growth of Adult and Children’s services currently consumes 79% of the total budget (Gillian Ford 26 minutes). This is an increase of nine percentage points4 in two years. Avoiding the budget-killer £54M loan can’t be done.

Worst Team Player: Paul McGeary, who didn’t wear a green tie but at least his wasn’t red!

Notes

1 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times relate to this webcast

2 Officer presentation. Natasha reappeared at 20 minutes

3 The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Albert Einstein

4 This is 12.9% growth

The Political Management of Library Closures

Ward councillors are advocates for their constituents. The proposed library closure programme is for four out of a list of five.1 Two libraries are in HRA wards and HRA are proposing the closures. This means that two wards have councillors who are conflicted. The conflict is that they must support their ward and support their party. This is a quintessential political decision. All five councillors have substantial allowances, which might be factor in their decision-making.

Elm Park: HRA stronghold

Barry Mugglestone is the Environment Tsar. His greatest victory is 30-minutes free car parking – except in Romford.2 It costs a million pounds and would save all the libraries if abandoned.

Stephanie Nunn is the  former mayor.

Julie Wilkes is chair of the Audit Committee with a substantial allowance. There are four meetings a year. The 23rd January, 2024 meeting lasted an hour.3

South Hornchurch: HRA stronghold

Natasha Summers was suddenly promoted to the £25,000 Housing Needs cabinet post.4 South Hornchurch is Havering’s third most deprived ward (see Addendum 1) and residents have poor outcomes. The library is important for Levelling-up.

Graham Williamson is the Planning Tsar. He sees libraries sitting on sites which are ready for housing development. Graham lives in Elm Park, which is also facing library closures.

Political Management

Ray Morgon’s HRA are specialists in the management of decline. This will continue until they grasp the Council Tax nettle (see Addendum 2). Graham Williamson says, “We can only hope”5 for additional government funding. He means increased Council Taxes are inevitable, but HRA would implode under the political pressure.

Addendum One: Deprivation

“Gooshays, Heaton, and South Hornchurch are the most deprived wards in Havering. On average, people living in deprived areas, lower socio-economic groups and marginalised groups have the poorest health and well-being outcomes. In the most deprived areas, the life expectancy of men is 7.9 years lower than that of men in the least deprived areas; for women the difference is 5.5years.” Source: Social Value strategy – Cabinet Sept 2019.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

Addendum Two: Bankruptcy

“…a funding gap facing local services of more than £6 billion over the next two years – fuelled by rising cost and demand pressures – means a chasm will continue to grow….”

Two-thirds of councils have already had to make cutbacks to local neighbourhood services this year – including waste collections, road repairs, library and leisure services – as they struggle to plug funding gaps.” Source: English councils face terrifying £6.2bn funding black hole with more at risk of bankruptcy (msn.com)

Notes

1 Collier Row, Elm Park, Gidea Park, Harold Wood and South Hornchurch

2 Romford didn’t vote HRA but four Conservatives have joined them –  without by-elections

3 Browse meetings – Audit Committee | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Havering Councillor: Natasha Summers (South Hornchurch) – Politics in Havering Her attendance is poor at about 62%. This bodes badly for her principal decision-making role. Councillors attendance summary, 14 December 2023 – 7 June 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

5 ‘I fear all Councils will be low down in a future Government’s priorities but we live in hope.’ – The Havering Daily

Havering’s Council Tax: The Consultation for Closing Four Libraries

The fundamental issue with the Council’s finances is not one of financial stewardship but that we simply do not receive enough Government support relative to the needs of the residents of Havering. Until that fundamental issue is addressed then it will remain a challenge to balance the Council’s budget.1

Closing four libraries is financially trivial. The two-year loan of £54m will cost £3.78m in interest annually. And in 2026 it will be an action replay. Salami slicing tactics2 are characteristic of political cowards. Tiny incremental cuts, which people can sort-of accept, and then wham: everything is gone.

The 2022-3 overspend was 4.5%, “a £7.788m overspend against a final net budget of £173m,”3  which was structural. Only a government injection of £4bn into local authorities will prevent further deficits.4 The bleak possibility is that Havering’s library service will be further reduced.5

Havering as helpless victim?

The council makes significant political choices. Roughly a million-pound subsidy to non-Romford car park users is utterly political. A million pounds to encourage car use? Roughly £300,000 is subsidising the MetPolice for five officers who are called away for operational duties elsewhere. Roughly £100,000 is spent closing park gates – for the few parks that have gates. Roughly £500,000 goes on CCTV, which notoriously didn’t prevent the arson attack on the Town Hall itself. And so on.

The Consultation document6 is mendacious, “…the budget challenges the Council faces means the library service’s budget needs to reduce”.7 This is untrue.

Closing libraries is a political choice.

Notes

1 draft_20222023_statement_of_accounts.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

2 Salami slicing tactics – Wikipedia

3 draft_20222023_statement_of_accounts.pdf (havering.gov.uk) p11

4  The prospect of further real terms funding cuts is likely to exacerbate existing concerns about systemic underfunding, with the current funding gap already estimated at £4 billion. Financial distress in local authorities: government response to the Select Committee report – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

5 The statutory minimum would be libraries in Hornchurch, Rainham and Romford.

6 Havering Council Libraries Consultation – London Borough of Havering Council – Citizen Space

7 loc.cit.

Havering’s Annual Council, 22nd May 2024

Normally this is a snore-fest and it remained so until the vote for Mayor. Stephanie Nunn said she liked being Mayor. She praised people who’d helped her raise £20,000 for First Step. She praised her chaplain and her consort. But she didn’t praise her deputy mayor. This was a hint of what was to come.

Ray Morgon indulged in Jesuit-style treachery. Because his agreement to alternate Labour – HRA mayors was verbal, it was disposable. Gerry O’Sullivan ousted Labour’s Pat Brown.1 But shock-horror! Among the abstentions was Labour’s Paul McGeary. To make sure everyone understood he was a maverick, he abstained on Labour’s Matt Stanton vote for chair of the Overview and Scrutiny Board. An interesting way of resigning from the party.

Ray Morgon’s (35 minutes)2 tour d’horizon was a sea shanty without music. It desperately needed music. HMS Havering has ‘passengers’ going on a voyage. He revealed (38mins)3 it will have a huge deficit over four years. He didn’t reveal where the £82m4 is coming from. His ‘wish and a prayer’ strategy relies on Starmer winning on July 4th.5

Best Team Player: Robbie Misir wearing a green tie

Notes

1 Sue Ospreay has 62% attendance, which isn’t a qualification for deputy-mayor Councillors attendance summary, 1 December 2023 – 25 May 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times refer to this webcast

3 loc.cit

4 Actually £28m as he’s already borrowed £54m

5 “The proposals to reduce the number of libraries is one of many painful decisions we will need to make until we get a better financial settlement from government which accurately reflects the borough’s changing population and need.” Havering welcomes a new Mayor, addressing concerns about the library consultation, arson attack at the Town Hall – 12hedonic@gmail.com – Gmail (google.com) As Conservatives caused this disaster, he must mean Starmer.

Libraries or 30 Minutes Free Parking in Hornchurch and Upminster?

By maintaining the remaining six most visited libraries….the borough will save more than £300,000 per year, with these essential savings going towards the Council’s responsibilities to meet a balanced budget.

Have your say on the future of Havering libraries, disruptions to waste collections, good luck to Romford FC – 12hedonic@gmail.com – Gmail (google.com)

Ray Morgon has identified four libraries that are on life-support machines. As an act of mercy, he’s going to put them out of their misery. Luckily, the resources freed up will create a new Golden Age for the remaining libraries. Even better, they will also help in the battle against bankruptcy. That’s the story.

Balderdash!

What’s actually happening is that the unaffordable 30 minutes free parking period in HRA/Labour’s heartlands will continue. HRA/Labour voters are being rewarded, unlike those in Conservative Romford. The revenue savings from the closure of the libraries is trivial at £300,000. Trivial? Free carparking costs a cool million. Ah, but what about the “balanced budget?”

Balderdash!

HRA/Labour have borrowed £54m at 7% over 20 years. The annual interest to be paid on that is £3.78m. £300,000 doesn’t touch the sides. The Administration is trying to dig itself out of a hole by not taking up the full loan. (This explains the recent sale of four car parks by the way.1) They are suffering from ‘buyer’s remorse’ when a supposed triumph turns into a nightmare.2

A helpful suggestion

Sell the Marks and Spencer site in Romford.3

Notes

1 Havering’s Impending Bankruptcy: selling carparks – Politics in Havering

2 Buyer’s remorse – Wikipedia

3 Damian White and Romford Marks and Spencer (M&S) July, 2019 – Politics in Havering

 

Havering’s Impending Bankruptcy: selling carparks

The Council borrowed £54m to pay its bills in Spring 2024 (see Addendum). They are also selling carparks to avoid (postpone?) bankruptcy. Four are going.1 The Romford Recorder 2 says they’re worth £9m and that’s why they’re being sold. The other reasons are,

“…they are underused and the aim is to have a better use of the land that can help the council reduce its waiting list backlog for affordable homes..”3

“Underused” is slippery. Two figures need stating, (1) target income, and (2), how big was the shortfall? How long will it be before the lost income equals £9m and, will the council tax from the new properties compensate?

Why is this important?

Finance is paramount when facing bankruptcy and trumps other considerations.4 Will the sales help or hinder the council’s problems? £9m is 11% of the shortfall over two years: it’s a drop in the ocean. And the revenue is gone for ever.

Selling income generating assets to fund revenue is insanity. The government is privatising Havering by the deliberate under-funding of statutory services.5 Voters will notice when quality-of-life assets are lost. But by then no-one will be able to do anything about it.

The government is forcing Havering to sell assets.  The government doesn’t want to fully fund statutory services which Havering must provide. They don’t like the truth that: Taxes are the price we pay for a civilised society.6

Addendum: The Loan

This is a government drawdown facility for unfunded statutory5 bills. The loan is charged at 7% for 20 years. The interest for 18 full years is £68m. In brief, it increases Council Tax until 2044.

Notes

1 Issue details – Site Disposals under the Asset Disposal Programme 2022-2028 | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Romford Recorder 26th April 2024 front page

3 loc.cit

4 The massive negative response didn’t see it like that at all. p18

5 Statutory services are those that the council must provide before anything else.

6 Taxes Are What We Pay for Civilized Society – Quote Investigator®