Havering Cabinet, 5th February 2025: Budget

Gillian Ford (1minute),¹is Havering’s Maggie Thatcher. Her speech was a version of ‘There is no alternative’. (see addendum). Her conclusions are pure Maggie.

“Without these three [library] closures we cannot cover their costs, we place remaining libraries at risk, and we would not be delivering the improvement and transformation plan agreed at Full Council last July, in accordance with MHCLG’s requirements.”²

Being obvious nonsense, Keith Prince (20) piled in. He evoked shifty and evasive answers before the Chief Executive (23) conceded his point. Library closures are a political choice. Gillian (52) declared, “We have no alternative!” Maggie Rides Again.

The cabinet spent 51 minutes discussing £800K whilst simultaneously negotiating a £70m loan. Chris Wilkins said (1:27) that the gap could be £89m.³ This astonishing 27% variation on the Leader’s statement was treated with levity by Chris. Havering’s government borrowings are a minimum of £102m This is to pay for daily expenditure but not for tangible infrastructure benefits. The loans are a manoeuvre to avoid “…a massive increase in council tax beyond the standard 4.99 per cent.”⁴

Ray Morgon conveniently forgets the £102m are loans, which future Havering councils will have to pay.⁵ He has a heroic belief in government largesse where loans are written off. Is this prudent budget setting? Meanwhile he stands by the £1m free parking gift to his political heartlands in Hornchurch and Upminster.

Addendum: There is no alternative, Margaret Thatcher

“TINA (as characterized by explicit use of ‘there is no alternative’ and declarations of necessity, inevitability, and irrefutability of certain policies) can be considered a political strategy in both democratic and autocratic regimes. Its rhetoric allows politicians to reduce the scope of available policy choices, limiting the expectations of their electorate and avoiding the blame for bad, but ‘unescapable’ policies.” source There is no alternative – Wikipedia

Notes

1 All times refer to the webcast Annotator Player

2 loc.cit. 18 minutes Gillian used MHCLG throughout her speech without saying it’s the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. Gillian is claiming the Ministry has demanded library closures, which is nonsense. Councillor Taylor says, “….the saving is likely to be around just £161k.” This is after decommissioning costs are factored into the equation. REVEALED: Actual Library Closure Costs Gillian responded Deputy Leader Responds to Library Closure Criticism By Romford Councillor. – The Havering Daily

4 loc.cit. Wilkins speech

4 Havering hosts crime summit, Cabinet agrees next year’s budget, we celebrate LGBT+ History Month – 12hedonic@gmail.com – Gmail [CP1]

5 Presumably not by HRA’s current leadership.

[CP1]

Havering’s Cabinet, 22nd January 2025

The Conservatives have their third leader since 2022. Michael White is a veteran from when the electorate elected Conservatives.

Barry Mugglestone (one minute)¹ introduced the borough’s ‘Food Disposal’ policy.² He had a blizzard of statistics and costings, which were meant to ‘shock and awe’. David Taylor (4minutes) had prepared searching questions. He relished asking them and created a classy debate.

Food Disposal is government policy and Havering is new to it. David wondered if officers had done comparative research to avoid reinventing the wheel. The answer: not much.

Havering’s two year contract for non-obligatory caddy bin liners is £1million. Havering is bankrupt. Barry (9 minutes) wanted to withdraw his proposal but was ignored. Gillian Ford (17 minutes) said bin liners should be provided and stopped later on. Good luck with that!

Natasha Summers (48 minutes) wants to reduce homelessness costs.³ The policy will save £1.8m over ten years. Meanwhile bin liners will cost £1m over two years. Converting a Basildon office building will provide 34 units. Havering residents will be shipped out to Basildon for their housing needs.

Michael White (50 minutes) showed political Leadership. He pursued the implications of the policy for residents and Basildon. He said homeless people are shuffled around and Havering was a victim of inner-London disposal policies. The savings are negligible and it is papering over the cracks.

These discussions implied cabinet members don’t critique their papers. They should be more than spokespersons for officers.

Notes

1 Annotator Player All timings refer to this webcast

1 5.0 amended Cabinet – Food Waste 22.01.2025 1.pdf

3 8.0 Cabinet Paper – Office to residential conversion to accommodate homeless families at Eastgate Ho.pdf

Council Meeting, 15th January 2025 (part one)

Attendance

Nine councillors (16%) were absent. Absenteeism like this is a *Red Flag* demanding action.¹ Item 7b gave permission to a councillor be absent because of serious illness and that is right and proper. But what of the other eight?

Question Time²

Keith Prince (13 and 22 minutes)³ asked two questions about libraries. Gillian Ford didn’t show leadership in either answer. Keith wondered what additional work Gillian had done to garner community support and extend the commercial side of the library estate. She hadn’t done anything. *Proactive* is forbidden territory for her.

Dilip Patel (45 minutes) highlighted the tragic case of an 85 years old lady who’d been without heating for a month. Paul McGeary mumbled. His gravedigger voice buried this annoying triviality and the moment passed.

Webcast

The quality is poor and worsening. Gillian’s answer to Keith’s second question featured the brooding figure of Barry Mugglestone. At 37 minutes Natasha Summers disappeared altogether being replaced by Luke Phimister’s name. David Taylor’s question wasn’t filmed at all and Jane Keane’s question was truncated. Computer King Paul Middleton should solve this shaming problem. It makes the council look incompetent.

Notes

1 Councillors attendance summary, 25 July 2024 – 17 January 2025 | London Borough of Havering Six (11%) have 50%, or fewer, attendances and that doesn’t include the member who is seriously ill.

2 Council Questions 15 January 2025.pdf

3 Timings relate to the webcast Annotator Player

Havering’s Council Meeting, 20th November 2024 (part one)

Havering Council’s descent into irrelevance is accelerating. The Leader didn’t make an announcement about his seismic budget consultation at the beginning of the meeting. It was published 48 hours later.

Keith Prince is another example (1:06). He’s a GLA transport committee member with constant access to TfL decision-makers. His question,¹

What lobbying has the Cabinet Member for the Environment undertaken with regards to the withdrawal of the 347-bus route since the most recent announcement by the Mayor of London?

Barry Mugglestone should have utilised Keith’s unique position to lobby the GLA. HRA claim to be independent of political party silos. Well, it doesn’t look like it. They should be working together and not squabbling.

The other 12 questions were ostrich like. None dealt with the impending disaster of the 2025-6 budget. There are four options for consultation (see addendum).²

HRA is proposing another loan. Guess-estimate £50-70m

OR, increase council tax. Guess-estimate 10-20%

OR, throw the towel in and get the government in to run the shop.

OR, Local Government Funding is adjusted for Havering. Guess-estimate ‘No chance’.

Question Time is ideal for probing Havering’s cabinet. Neither the Leader or the Finance cabinet member had a question to answer. The failed £54m loan was unremarked on. Was it even noticed?

The council’s inadequacy is shown by the fact that they can’t even successfully lobby TfL about a bus route!

Addendum: Budget Consultation – principal points

Another Capitalisation Direction (government loan)

Significantly increasing Council Tax beyond the Government’s proposals (this would require a referendum).

Section 114 (effectively declaring the Council bankrupt with the possibility of Government Commissioners being sent in to run the Council which in itself would incur significant costs).

Urgent intervention from the government (extra funding/funding formula review to reflect current population change and need).

Notes
1 Council Questions 20 November 2024.pdf Q12

2 Havering launches consultation as Council budget on precipice | London Borough of Havering

Havering’s Cabinet, 6th November 2024

Bankruptcy dominates council decision-making. Item 6¹ discussed the unfolding financial situation. Chris Wilkins (28 minutes) introduced the item in his ‘reading a shopping list’ style. Surprisingly, he sounds like a born-again Labour loyalist with a mission to rescue Havering after 14 years of Tory misrule.

The £52m government loan, negotiated with the Conservatives, is inadequate. Chris says the 2025-6 outcome will be minus £73m. Ominously, he (31) identified the Freedom Pass as a pressure point. Havering has many OAPs and the Freedom Pass is very expensive at £8m. Chris could be thinking of that as a ‘savings’ item. If the government does not increase Havering’s funding, Chris might have to consider a huge increase in council tax.

Ray Morgon, Gillian Ford and Chris love lobbying. It’s ludicrous and is the triumph of hope over experience. Ray (33) said the GLA expects 25% of councils to be bankrupt by 2026-7 along with Havering.

“To engage in discussion with the Government regarding a fix to the underlying budget issue the Council faces or agree a further capitalisation direction to allow time for funding reform to be actioned.”²

The recent Labour budget allocated £1.3bn for local government. Ray said Havering should receive good treatment because it’s virtually bankrupt. Interestingly, neither Chris or Ray mentioned that the interest rate for the £52m loan had been reduced by 1%. The 1% saves half million pounds in annual interest payments, which is £200,00 more than closing four libraries.

The government could lift the ‘cap’ on council tax increases, “It is unclear… whether…[the new Government] will allow authorities more flexibility regarding tax increases.”³

Chris won’t welcome empowerment. He prefers being a helpless victim. If the £21m shortfall is funded by council tax increases, it will be dramatic in an election year.

Notes

1 Annotator Player

2 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 06/11/2024 19:30 para 8.2

“….agree a further capitalisation direction to allow time for funding reform to be actioned.” This means that they intend to borrow long term for current revenue pressures. This is financial insanity.

3 ibid 8.3

Havering’s Cabinet Meeting, 9th October 2024

The meeting dealt with awarding contracts. Every officer recommendation was agreed. Scrutiny was provided by Keith Prince who did a manly job. This was especially the case with the award of a Housing IT contract, Item 8.¹

Keith (1:04)² focused on the price range,

“Indicative Market Comparison Costs……Based on the extensive market assessment across eight suppliers it is estimated that the total value of the contract will be within a range of c.£970,000 to £2.4m for the potential seven year life cycle of the software …..(results of market assessment across eight suppliers)”³

There is a 147% range between lowest and highest. Keith found this curious. Just how could there be such an enormous variation for the same performance? The complex story took an interesting turn when the director of finance said she could vary these prices by a further half million pounds under delegated powers. Taking the lowest indicative price, that was a further 51%. Reading the cabinet’s ‘body language’, it was obvious they didn’t know about her delegated powers. (The papers will be rewritten reflecting this insight.)

Keith did an excellent job at this meeting.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Ray Morgon’s attempt to suppress the Institutional Racism report hit another road block⁴ when the appeal against the Freedom of Information Tribunal judgment failed,

A judge ruled that the council’s grounds for trying to cover up the 400-page dossier were “inarguable” and had “no realistic prospect of success”. ⁵ (my emphasis)

He’s a sucker for punishment and might appeal against this judgement. The lawyers are loving it. Havering’s library users are less happy.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 09/10/2024 19:30 p97

2 Time is based on the webcast

3 loc.cit. p99

4 Institutional Racism and Havering Council – Politics in Havering

5 Information Tribunal rejects Havering Council racism dossier appeal | This Is Local London

Havering’s Bankruptcy and Margaret Thatcher

Thatcherite economics in 1979 was straight-forward. Income tax was reduced and capital assets lightly taxed to reward Conservative voters.¹ Lost revenue was replaced with massive increases in regressive taxes like VAT. George Osborne, a Thatcherite without the brains, introduced The Age of Austerity, 2010-24. His freezing of Council Tax ultimately made Havering bankrupt because lost revenue wasn’t replaced.

Ray Morgon borrowed £52m, at 7%, from the government to replace the lost revenue in 2024. This is like using credit cards for day-to-day spending, which is obviously insane. Worse, the council is selling capital assets to fill the hole Osborne made. (Bankrupt aristocrats call this, ‘selling the family silver.’) It’s a futile tactic to buy time.

In a full year, 2% of council tax will be needed to pay the interest on the loan.

Havering is bankrupt because council tax is too low.². Trivial *cuts* like four libraries reduce the deficit by £300,000.³ Havering’s budget is £180M.

What does inflation, 2010-24 tell us?

General inflation: 61%⁴

House price inflation: 100%+⁵

Council tax inflation: 46.7%⁶

The 2024-25 budget deficit is expected to be £32M.⁷This is caused by Council Tax not being inflation linked. Council Tax is a Property Tax.

House price inflation has been at least 100% because of the magic ofThatcherite economics. Wealth in assets is lightly taxed and rises in value. Or, as the Bible says, The rich get richer.⁸ Born-again Thatcherites like Andrew Rosindell probably know this. Meanwhile pot holes are a symptom of bankruptcy.

Ray Morgan and Gillian Ford should beg government for the freedom to set Havering’s Council Tax.

Notes

1 BBC Budget 97 “In his first [1979] Budget he raised VAT from….8% to a single rate of 15%….an increase in prescription charges from 20p to 45p and a major relaxation of exchange controls.” In the same budget higher rate taxation was reduced from 60% to 40%.

2 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering

3 Havering launches new library strategy | London Borough of Havering

4 £1 in 2010 → 2024 | UK Inflation Calculator (in2013dollars.com)

5 House Prices in Hornchurch (rightmove.co.uk) 11 Ravensbourne Crescent, Romford increased 142%. 17 Ravenscourt Grove, Hornchurch increased 117%

6 Previous years’ bands | Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering Using Band D.

7 Cabinet agrees “toughest budget ever” | London Borough of Havering The actual out-turn won’t be £32M because much expenditure is demand led and not quantifiable accurately.

8 Matthew 25:29

Havering’s Cabinet Meetings: 11th September and 18th September, 2024

Item 6: 11^th September

Assure Havering residents that the Council takes Hate Crime seriously and has robust mechanisms in place to help combat/reduce such behaviour; and · Inform victims and witnesses about the various support options currently available, including how to contact those specialist agencies.^1,2 (my emphasis)

The government requires councils to have *Hate Crime* policies. The policy is for Havering’s housing tenants. Paul McGeary (36 minutes)³, read a statement. He has no enthusiasm, it’s as if it’s an unwelcome chore. Keith Darvill (42) worried about costs. When told there were no additional costs he was still worried, which was surprising.

The schizophrenic cabinet endorsed this policy whilst paying a fortune to a King’s Counsel (KC). The KC will try to sustain the council’s position on the suppression of their report on racism amongst council employees.² Institutional racism, of course, is a hate crime. The report will be uncomfortable and unwelcome. It is, in the words of the Tribunal which decided the Romford Recorder’s Freedom of Information request, “of overwhelming public interest”.⁴ Therefore, it should be published.

Item 10: 25^th September

This item is a Performance Report on the Council. The ‘score card’ categories are as follows:

“· Red = Below target and below the ‘variable tolerance’ of the target

Amber = Below target but within the ‘variable tolerance’ of the target
Green = Above annual target.”⁵

The outcome isn’t flattering, with 41% being RED and a cause for concern.

Interestingly the IT document transmission failed and Opposition leaders only received a summary report. Keith Prince (1:32) believed it should be made public. Reading the Leader’s *Body Language* this is unlikely to happen.

Councillors spent three minutes (from1:31) on this item. Chummy cabinet meetings, with lots of bonhomie, are a tragic wasted opportunity. The public is ill-served when a 41% failure rate is shrugged off without comment.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 18/09/2024 19:30 (havering.gov.uk) p579

2 Institutional Racism and Havering Council – Politics in Havering

3 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) Times refer to this webcast. There wasn’t any sound until this item. This gelled with the members’ criticisms about the poor Council’s IT interface.

4 Havering Council seeks appeal over racism report ruling | Romford Recorder

5 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 25/09/2024 19:30 (havering.gov.uk) p184

Havering Council Meeting: 4th September 2024 (part two)

Library Closure Debate (Begins at 56 minutes)^1,2

This was the best debate in recent years. Thoughtful and insightful points were made in an ultra-positive environment. Great stuff.

Martin Goode (56mins) set the tone. Firstly, placing libraries in the community and then forensically analysing the financial actualité. A lot of the savings is staffing. However, Havering has a no redundancy policy so there is an over-statement of savings.

Two councillors³ explained the importance of libraries to their, and every body’s, childhood. Dilip Patel (1:25) quoted Woodford Green library as an example of creative regeneration. This set the scene for ‘thinking outside the box’, a point approvingly made by Ray Morgon (2:16) to Keith Prince’s (2:19) surprise. The consultation didn’t offer alternatives to closure.

Philip Ruck (1:31) favours morally correct decisions. James Glass (1:49) is refreshingly optimistic unlike HRA, which embraces ‘victimhood’. Chris Wilkins (1:22) exemplifies victimhood: he’s wedded to ‘Loans and Savings’. He’s oblivious to the £1.5m that a 1% council tax increase offers, an option “that dare not speak its name”.⁴

Graham Williamson (1:44) stunned councillors by saying that libraries are ‘subsidised’. They’re a public service, which might surprise him, as he implies they’re failing businesses. Gillian Ford was outraged that Prince wanted to conclude the debate even if it went on beyond 10:30 (2:00).⁵ He said HRA are led by officers. Council officers, as a group, have reductionist attitudes: ‘You want savings? Here they are!’

Four libraries might close to ‘save’ 0.55% of the deficit.

Best sarcasm: Philip Ruck

Best politics: Brian Eagling (1:28)

Absentee councillors: Nine, which is outrageous.

Notes

1 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times relate to this webcast

2 Motions.pdf (havering.gov.uk) For the wording of the motion and amendments

3 Mandy Anderson and Judith Holt made significant speeches on this point.

4 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering

5 A close vote 25:21 casts doubt on this

The Political Management of Library Closures

Ward councillors are advocates for their constituents. The proposed library closure programme is for four out of a list of five.¹ Two libraries are in HRA wards and HRA are proposing the closures. This means that two wards have councillors who are conflicted. The conflict is that they must support their ward and support their party. This is a quintessential political decision. All five councillors have substantial allowances, which might be factor in their decision-making.

Elm Park: HRA stronghold

Barry Mugglestone is the Environment Tsar. His greatest victory is 30-minutes free car parking – except in Romford.²It costs a million pounds and would save all the libraries if abandoned.

Stephanie Nunn is the former mayor.

Julie Wilkes is chair of the Audit Committee with a substantial allowance. There are four meetings a year. The 23^rd January, 2024 meeting lasted an hour.³

South Hornchurch: HRA stronghold

Natasha Summers was suddenly promoted to the £25,000 Housing Needs cabinet post.⁴ South Hornchurch is Havering’s third most deprived ward (see Addendum 1) and residents have poor outcomes. The library is important for Levelling-up.

Graham Williamson is the Planning Tsar. He sees libraries sitting on sites which are ready for housing development. Graham lives in Elm Park, which is also facing library closures.

Political Management

Ray Morgon’s HRA are specialists in the management of decline. This will continue until they grasp the Council Tax nettle (see Addendum 2). Graham Williamson says, “We can only hope”⁵for additional government funding. He means increased Council Taxes are inevitable, but HRA would implode under the political pressure.

Addendum One: Deprivation

“Gooshays, Heaton, and South Hornchurch are the most deprived wards in Havering. On average, people living in deprived areas, lower socio-economic groups and marginalised groups have the poorest health and well-being outcomes. In the most deprived areas, the life expectancy of men is 7.9 years lower than that of men in the least deprived areas; for women the difference is 5.5years.” Source: Social Value strategy – Cabinet Sept 2019.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

Addendum Two: Bankruptcy

“…a funding gap facing local services of more than £6 billion over the next two years – fuelled by rising cost and demand pressures – means a chasm will continue to grow….”

Two-thirds of councils have already had to make cutbacks to local neighbourhood services this year – including waste collections, road repairs, library and leisure services – as they struggle to plug funding gaps.” Source: English councils face terrifying £6.2bn funding black hole with more at risk of bankruptcy (msn.com)

Notes

1 Collier Row, Elm Park, Gidea Park, Harold Wood and South Hornchurch

2 Romford didn’t vote HRA but four Conservatives have joined them – without by-elections

3 Browse meetings – Audit Committee | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Havering Councillor: Natasha Summers (South Hornchurch) – Politics in Havering Her attendance is poor at about 62%. This bodes badly for her principal decision-making role. Councillors attendance summary, 14 December 2023 – 7 June 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

5 ‘I fear all Councils will be low down in a future Government’s priorities but we live in hope.’ – The Havering Daily