Author: odeboyz

Havering Council: The Current Position – 25th June, 2024

Analysing Havering’s politics is as futile as nailing jelly to the ceiling. Councillors change sides and voters are ignored. Will ‘Carry on Splintering,’ lead to a third administration in four years?

Havering Residents’ Association 2022: 19 councillors: NOW: 26

HRA came second in 2022 and formed a coalition with Labour. Seven Conservative and a Labour councillor have joined them, leading to a Minority Administration. HRA lost a councillor when Philip Ruck defected to Cranham RAs. [UPDATE: 2nd July 2024 a defection from HRA to Conservatives. This is playground politics.]

Semi-detached councillor: Paul Middleton doesn’t appear on St Andrew’s HRA literature.

Conservative: 2022: 23 councillors: NOW: 16

Romford Conservatives have suffered badly from three Conservative Prime Ministers: Boris ‘Partygate’ Johnson, Liz ‘Bonkers’ Truss and Rishi ‘D Day’ Sunak. Councillors have caught the vibe and seven have defected.

Semi-detached councillor: Damian White with two attendances in six months.1

Labour: 2022: 9 councillors: NOW: 8

Labour came third and entered a coalition with HRA, which collapsed when Paul McGeary defected. Will Labour be an effective opposition?

East Havering RAs: 2022: 3 councillors: NOW: 3

They supported the Conservatives, 2018-22. Tiny, but could be pivotal in the future.

Cranham RAs : 2022: 1 councillor: NOW: 2 councillors

They are ‘True Believer’ Residents. They should fear the Data Centre proposition, which is toxic for their core supporters.

Summary: Disgracefully, nine councillors have changed sides without by-elections.2

2024-6: Ray Morgon’s Captain Birdseye impression at Annual Council,3 conceals a ruthless politician. Keeping HRA together will be difficult as the Labour government maintains the current funding regime. Removing limits on increases in Council Tax leaves HRA exposed. Substantial increases in Council Tax will be necessary to avoid another ruinous loan.

Can HRA take the pressure? Probably not.

Notes

1 Attendance record – Councillor Damian White | The London Borough Of Havering

2 The churn is 16%

3 Havering’s Annual Council, 22nd May 2024 – Politics in Havering

Havering’s Cabinet, 12th June 2024

HRA have seamlessly become a minority administration. Opposition leaders Keith Prince and Keith Darvill were absent and only Martin Goode provided scrutiny. He understands ‘opposition’. The key ingredients: turning up and doing homework.

New cabinet member Natasha Summers spoke via Zoom (7 minutes).1 She then switched off her Zoom connexion. Someone should have asked a question to see if she’d left the meeting. (Cabinet members usually stay throughout meetings by-the-by.) Natasha’s presentation avoided the complex financial regime underpinning the contract for social housing (11 minutes) so perhaps that’s why she left.2

Ray Morgon wanted Chris Wilkins to be great. Chris dodged the bullet. His contributions at 1, 15, 18, 23 and 26 minutes were soulless readings of officer statements. Unlike Question Time super-star Barry Mugglestone, Chris doesn’t convince when he’s reading. Martin tried probing questions which Chris sidestepped, leaving answers to officers. Bizarrely3 (26 minutes), in an unscripted comment, he said he was going to lobby the new government. Good luck with that!

The £54M borrowing facility is untouched. It’s very expensive and could be a major expansion item in 2025-6. The systemic growth of Adult and Children’s services currently consumes 79% of the total budget (Gillian Ford 26 minutes). This is an increase of nine percentage points4 in two years. Avoiding the budget-killer £54M loan can’t be done.

Worst Team Player: Paul McGeary, who didn’t wear a green tie but at least his wasn’t red!

Notes

1 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times relate to this webcast

2 Officer presentation. Natasha reappeared at 20 minutes

3 The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Albert Einstein

4 This is 12.9% growth

The Political Management of Library Closures

Ward councillors are advocates for their constituents. The proposed library closure programme is for four out of a list of five.1 Two libraries are in HRA wards and HRA are proposing the closures. This means that two wards have councillors who are conflicted. The conflict is that they must support their ward and support their party. This is a quintessential political decision. All five councillors have substantial allowances, which might be factor in their decision-making.

Elm Park: HRA stronghold

Barry Mugglestone is the Environment Tsar. His greatest victory is 30-minutes free car parking – except in Romford.2 It costs a million pounds and would save all the libraries if abandoned.

Stephanie Nunn is the  former mayor.

Julie Wilkes is chair of the Audit Committee with a substantial allowance. There are four meetings a year. The 23rd January, 2024 meeting lasted an hour.3

South Hornchurch: HRA stronghold

Natasha Summers was suddenly promoted to the £25,000 Housing Needs cabinet post.4 South Hornchurch is Havering’s third most deprived ward (see Addendum 1) and residents have poor outcomes. The library is important for Levelling-up.

Graham Williamson is the Planning Tsar. He sees libraries sitting on sites which are ready for housing development. Graham lives in Elm Park, which is also facing library closures.

Political Management

Ray Morgon’s HRA are specialists in the management of decline. This will continue until they grasp the Council Tax nettle (see Addendum 2). Graham Williamson says, “We can only hope”5 for additional government funding. He means increased Council Taxes are inevitable, but HRA would implode under the political pressure.

Addendum One: Deprivation

“Gooshays, Heaton, and South Hornchurch are the most deprived wards in Havering. On average, people living in deprived areas, lower socio-economic groups and marginalised groups have the poorest health and well-being outcomes. In the most deprived areas, the life expectancy of men is 7.9 years lower than that of men in the least deprived areas; for women the difference is 5.5years.” Source: Social Value strategy – Cabinet Sept 2019.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

Addendum Two: Bankruptcy

“…a funding gap facing local services of more than £6 billion over the next two years – fuelled by rising cost and demand pressures – means a chasm will continue to grow….”

Two-thirds of councils have already had to make cutbacks to local neighbourhood services this year – including waste collections, road repairs, library and leisure services – as they struggle to plug funding gaps.” Source: English councils face terrifying £6.2bn funding black hole with more at risk of bankruptcy (msn.com)

Notes

1 Collier Row, Elm Park, Gidea Park, Harold Wood and South Hornchurch

2 Romford didn’t vote HRA but four Conservatives have joined them –  without by-elections

3 Browse meetings – Audit Committee | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Havering Councillor: Natasha Summers (South Hornchurch) – Politics in Havering Her attendance is poor at about 62%. This bodes badly for her principal decision-making role. Councillors attendance summary, 14 December 2023 – 7 June 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

5 ‘I fear all Councils will be low down in a future Government’s priorities but we live in hope.’ – The Havering Daily

Andrew Rosindell’s Political Philosophy (Part Two)

Andrew is a libertarian. Unlike the political opportunist Julia Lopez, he has firm political beliefs so you know where you stand with him. He said, “Freedom with responsibility and freedom of choice are surely what the Conservative party should stand for.”1 He spoke three times against the proposal that access to tobacco should be abolished over many decades to save lives. (Addendum for the vote)

Libertarians oppose government interference in the lives of adults.2 Rishi Sunak is trying to prevent the preventable harms3 of smoking by ultimately ending legal sales. This builds on many current laws. One says motorcyclists must4 wear helmets whilst anyone travelling in cars must wear a seatbelt. Libertarians say this is a denial of ‘freedom of choice’ as it treats adults like children.

Andrew’s views on Covid-19 vaccination was consistent with his philosophy. “I have long campaigned against lockdown restrictions since the Summer of 2020 and have vehemently opposed mandatory vaccination in any setting.”5 Mandatory vaccinations are an example of unnecessary protection in his opinion.

Libertarianism promotes responsibility. It implies an increase in death and injury from not wearing helmets or seatbelts for example, which is the price of freedom. The 74,600 deaths3 annually from smoking would probably increase without intervention. Andrew’s position is coherent but might not suit public opinion, which thinks most protective laws are a ‘Good Thing’.

Addendum: Havering’s MPs and their vote

Jon Cruddas, Labour, voted for the proposal banning smoking for 15 year olds, Julia Lopez, Conservative minister, voted against and Andrew abstained.

Tobacco and Vapes Bill (Division 123: held on Tuesday – Hansard – UK Parliament The debate was on the 16th April 2024

Notes

1 Tobacco and Vapes Bill – Hansard – UK Parliament  col.220 Andrew has changed his mind. In 2010 he voted to maintain a ban on smoking Public Houses and Private Members’ Clubs (Smoking) Bill: Recent Votes – TheyWorkForYou Liberatarians accept protective laws for children.

2 Should Governments Prevent Preventable Harm? | Odeboyz’s Blog (oedeboyz.com) see also Paternalism in Historical Context: Helmet and Seatbelt Legislation in the UK | Public Health Ethics | Oxford Academic (oup.com) Andrew voted against the provision of free school meals during holiday periods for example Free School Meals (Division 154: held on Wednesday 21 – Hansard – UK Parliament

3 Statistics on Smoking, England 2020 – NHS England Digital The 2020 figures are 74,600 deaths and half a million hospital admissions

4 Motorcycle Helmets and Sikh Religion – Motorcycle Rider (motor-software.co.uk)

5 Scrap ‘ludicrous’ mandatory vaccination policy, says Rosindell | Romford Recorder

Havering’s Council Tax: The Consultation for Closing Four Libraries

The fundamental issue with the Council’s finances is not one of financial stewardship but that we simply do not receive enough Government support relative to the needs of the residents of Havering. Until that fundamental issue is addressed then it will remain a challenge to balance the Council’s budget.1

Closing four libraries is financially trivial. The two-year loan of £54m will cost £3.78m in interest annually. And in 2026 it will be an action replay. Salami slicing tactics2 are characteristic of political cowards. Tiny incremental cuts, which people can sort-of accept, and then wham: everything is gone.

The 2022-3 overspend was 4.5%, “a £7.788m overspend against a final net budget of £173m,”3  which was structural. Only a government injection of £4bn into local authorities will prevent further deficits.4 The bleak possibility is that Havering’s library service will be further reduced.5

Havering as helpless victim?

The council makes significant political choices. Roughly a million-pound subsidy to non-Romford car park users is utterly political. A million pounds to encourage car use? Roughly £300,000 is subsidising the MetPolice for five officers who are called away for operational duties elsewhere. Roughly £100,000 is spent closing park gates – for the few parks that have gates. Roughly £500,000 goes on CCTV, which notoriously didn’t prevent the arson attack on the Town Hall itself. And so on.

The Consultation document6 is mendacious, “…the budget challenges the Council faces means the library service’s budget needs to reduce”.7 This is untrue.

Closing libraries is a political choice.

Notes

1 draft_20222023_statement_of_accounts.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

2 Salami slicing tactics – Wikipedia

3 draft_20222023_statement_of_accounts.pdf (havering.gov.uk) p11

4  The prospect of further real terms funding cuts is likely to exacerbate existing concerns about systemic underfunding, with the current funding gap already estimated at £4 billion. Financial distress in local authorities: government response to the Select Committee report – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

5 The statutory minimum would be libraries in Hornchurch, Rainham and Romford.

6 Havering Council Libraries Consultation – London Borough of Havering Council – Citizen Space

7 loc.cit.

Havering’s Annual Council, 22nd May 2024

Normally this is a snore-fest and it remained so until the vote for Mayor. Stephanie Nunn said she liked being Mayor. She praised people who’d helped her raise £20,000 for First Step. She praised her chaplain and her consort. But she didn’t praise her deputy mayor. This was a hint of what was to come.

Ray Morgon indulged in Jesuit-style treachery. Because his agreement to alternate Labour – HRA mayors was verbal, it was disposable. Gerry O’Sullivan ousted Labour’s Pat Brown.1 But shock-horror! Among the abstentions was Labour’s Paul McGeary. To make sure everyone understood he was a maverick, he abstained on Labour’s Matt Stanton vote for chair of the Overview and Scrutiny Board. An interesting way of resigning from the party.

Ray Morgon’s (35 minutes)2 tour d’horizon was a sea shanty without music. It desperately needed music. HMS Havering has ‘passengers’ going on a voyage. He revealed (38mins)3 it will have a huge deficit over four years. He didn’t reveal where the £82m4 is coming from. His ‘wish and a prayer’ strategy relies on Starmer winning on July 4th.5

Best Team Player: Robbie Misir wearing a green tie

Notes

1 Sue Ospreay has 62% attendance, which isn’t a qualification for deputy-mayor Councillors attendance summary, 1 December 2023 – 25 May 2024 | The London Borough Of Havering

2 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times refer to this webcast

3 loc.cit

4 Actually £28m as he’s already borrowed £54m

5 “The proposals to reduce the number of libraries is one of many painful decisions we will need to make until we get a better financial settlement from government which accurately reflects the borough’s changing population and need.” Havering welcomes a new Mayor, addressing concerns about the library consultation, arson attack at the Town Hall – 12hedonic@gmail.com – Gmail (google.com) As Conservatives caused this disaster, he must mean Starmer.

Libraries or 30 Minutes Free Parking in Hornchurch and Upminster?

By maintaining the remaining six most visited libraries….the borough will save more than £300,000 per year, with these essential savings going towards the Council’s responsibilities to meet a balanced budget.

Have your say on the future of Havering libraries, disruptions to waste collections, good luck to Romford FC – 12hedonic@gmail.com – Gmail (google.com)

Ray Morgon has identified four libraries that are on life-support machines. As an act of mercy, he’s going to put them out of their misery. Luckily, the resources freed up will create a new Golden Age for the remaining libraries. Even better, they will also help in the battle against bankruptcy. That’s the story.

Balderdash!

What’s actually happening is that the unaffordable 30 minutes free parking period in HRA/Labour’s heartlands will continue. HRA/Labour voters are being rewarded, unlike those in Conservative Romford. The revenue savings from the closure of the libraries is trivial at £300,000. Trivial? Free carparking costs a cool million. Ah, but what about the “balanced budget?”

Balderdash!

HRA/Labour have borrowed £54m at 7% over 20 years. The annual interest to be paid on that is £3.78m. £300,000 doesn’t touch the sides. The Administration is trying to dig itself out of a hole by not taking up the full loan. (This explains the recent sale of four car parks by the way.1) They are suffering from ‘buyer’s remorse’ when a supposed triumph turns into a nightmare.2

A helpful suggestion

Sell the Marks and Spencer site in Romford.3

Notes

1 Havering’s Impending Bankruptcy: selling carparks – Politics in Havering

2 Buyer’s remorse – Wikipedia

3 Damian White and Romford Marks and Spencer (M&S) July, 2019 – Politics in Havering

 

Havering’s Elections, 2nd May, 2024

Havering is Conservative heartland. Although they appear to be in terminal decline nationally, that is fake news.1 When everything is against them, their ‘tribe’ rallies round. Susan Hall2 and Keith Prince3 romped home with substantial majorities against Labour. Grim national polling wasn’t reflected in Havering.

Susan Hall

Even her best friends wouldn’t describe her as dynamic. Her role was to be a sacrificial lamb facing slaughter. Her memorable ‘policy’ was scrapping ULEZ from “day one”. Despite her simplistic politics, she trounced Sadiq Khan by 32,000+ votes.

Keith Prince

He has been a GLA Assembly member for eight years. He avoided campaigning on his record during those years. This was wise. Keith is chair of GLA’s Transport Committee and Havering has major issues. First and foremost is the 50 year old Gallows Corner flyover, which is a blot on the landscape. Keith’s political strategy is wringing his hands in horror. This was unsuccessful with Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan.

Speculation

Conservatives should be worried about the Reform party – aka UKIP. They got 19,696 votes as a name on a ballot paper. Reform is popular in Havering, being right-wing without policies. Their voters think they can make a difference and they’re right.

Damian White lost in the 2019 general election because of UKIP.4 It’s impossible to know the impact on Andrew Rosindell but his majority is 17,893. If there’s a general election swing and a right-wing party, then he might be caught in a pincer movement. Julia Lopez’s majority is 23,000+ and only a political tsunami will shift her.

Notes

1 Since 2022 there have been seven defections from the Conservatives to HRA

2 havering_and_redbridge_mayoral_results_2024.pdf (londonelects.org.uk)

3 GLA Elections 2024: Havering and Redbridge Constituency Member results | The London Borough Of Havering

4 Damian White Scuppered by Nigel Farage! 12th December, 2019 – Politics in Havering