Havering’s Bankruptcy and Margaret Thatcher

Thatcherite economics in 1979 was straight-forward. Income tax was reduced and capital assets lightly taxed to reward Conservative voters.¹ Lost revenue was replaced with massive increases in regressive taxes like VAT. George Osborne, a Thatcherite without the brains, introduced The Age of Austerity, 2010-24. His freezing of Council Tax ultimately made Havering bankrupt because lost revenue wasn’t replaced.

Ray Morgon borrowed £52m, at 7%, from the government to replace the lost revenue in 2024. This is like using credit cards for day-to-day spending, which is obviously insane. Worse, the council is selling capital assets to fill the hole Osborne made. (Bankrupt aristocrats call this, ‘selling the family silver.’) It’s a futile tactic to buy time.

In a full year, 2% of council tax will be needed to pay the interest on the loan.

Havering is bankrupt because council tax is too low.². Trivial *cuts* like four libraries reduce the deficit by £300,000.³ Havering’s budget is £180M.

What does inflation, 2010-24 tell us?

General inflation: 61%⁴

House price inflation: 100%+⁵

Council tax inflation: 46.7%⁶

The 2024-25 budget deficit is expected to be £32M.⁷This is caused by Council Tax not being inflation linked. Council Tax is a Property Tax.

House price inflation has been at least 100% because of the magic ofThatcherite economics. Wealth in assets is lightly taxed and rises in value. Or, as the Bible says, The rich get richer.⁸ Born-again Thatcherites like Andrew Rosindell probably know this. Meanwhile pot holes are a symptom of bankruptcy.

Ray Morgan and Gillian Ford should beg government for the freedom to set Havering’s Council Tax.

Notes

1 BBC Budget 97 “In his first [1979] Budget he raised VAT from….8% to a single rate of 15%….an increase in prescription charges from 20p to 45p and a major relaxation of exchange controls.” In the same budget higher rate taxation was reduced from 60% to 40%.

2 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering

3 Havering launches new library strategy | London Borough of Havering

4 £1 in 2010 → 2024 | UK Inflation Calculator (in2013dollars.com)

5 House Prices in Hornchurch (rightmove.co.uk) 11 Ravensbourne Crescent, Romford increased 142%. 17 Ravenscourt Grove, Hornchurch increased 117%

6 Previous years’ bands | Council Tax bands and bills | London Borough of Havering Using Band D.

7 Cabinet agrees “toughest budget ever” | London Borough of Havering The actual out-turn won’t be £32M because much expenditure is demand led and not quantifiable accurately.

8 Matthew 25:29

Havering’s Cabinet Meetings: 11th September and 18th September, 2024

Item 6: 11^th September

Assure Havering residents that the Council takes Hate Crime seriously and has robust mechanisms in place to help combat/reduce such behaviour; and · Inform victims and witnesses about the various support options currently available, including how to contact those specialist agencies.^1,2 (my emphasis)

The government requires councils to have *Hate Crime* policies. The policy is for Havering’s housing tenants. Paul McGeary (36 minutes)³, read a statement. He has no enthusiasm, it’s as if it’s an unwelcome chore. Keith Darvill (42) worried about costs. When told there were no additional costs he was still worried, which was surprising.

The schizophrenic cabinet endorsed this policy whilst paying a fortune to a King’s Counsel (KC). The KC will try to sustain the council’s position on the suppression of their report on racism amongst council employees.² Institutional racism, of course, is a hate crime. The report will be uncomfortable and unwelcome. It is, in the words of the Tribunal which decided the Romford Recorder’s Freedom of Information request, “of overwhelming public interest”.⁴ Therefore, it should be published.

Item 10: 25^th September

This item is a Performance Report on the Council. The ‘score card’ categories are as follows:

“· Red = Below target and below the ‘variable tolerance’ of the target

Amber = Below target but within the ‘variable tolerance’ of the target
Green = Above annual target.”⁵

The outcome isn’t flattering, with 41% being RED and a cause for concern.

Interestingly the IT document transmission failed and Opposition leaders only received a summary report. Keith Prince (1:32) believed it should be made public. Reading the Leader’s *Body Language* this is unlikely to happen.

Councillors spent three minutes (from1:31) on this item. Chummy cabinet meetings, with lots of bonhomie, are a tragic wasted opportunity. The public is ill-served when a 41% failure rate is shrugged off without comment.

Notes

1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 18/09/2024 19:30 (havering.gov.uk) p579

2 Institutional Racism and Havering Council – Politics in Havering

3 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) Times refer to this webcast. There wasn’t any sound until this item. This gelled with the members’ criticisms about the poor Council’s IT interface.

4 Havering Council seeks appeal over racism report ruling | Romford Recorder

5 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Cabinet, 25/09/2024 19:30 (havering.gov.uk) p184

Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell ~ Back from the Brink, July 2024

After the catastrophic general election, Julia and Andrew have reacted differently. They both had 82% reductions in their huge majorities.¹ What lessons did they learn from this experience?

Julia’s response is that she’s now a constituency MP. She’s ditching her nickname Invisible. Her new dynamism has been rewarded with many appearances in the Romford Recorder. Dynamic, caring, constituency work is Julia’s five-year project. She hopes to be the darling of Hornchurch and Upminster in 2029.

Andrew’s response is amnesia. Bad things happened during the last 14 years and they’re all Labour’s fault. Andrew admires Robert Jenrick,² who was Immigration Minister in Sunak’s government.

“For too long, mass migration has gone unchecked, placing unbearable strain on housing, schools, the NHS and on all public services.”³

That Andrew supports anti-immigration politics and Jenrick shows the power of amnesia.

He believes Romford needs red-blooded Conservatism and then he’ll be the darling of Romford once more.

Julia and Andrew suffered from a rampant Reform Party. Their actual strategy is to “really, really” pray Farage’s Reform party implodes. Otherwise, the 2029 election could be terminal for Julia and Andrew.

Notes

1 Havering’s Tory MPs Dodge the Bullet, 4th July 2024 – Politics in Havering

2 Romford Recorder 27^th September 2024 p33 Andrew hosted Jenrick at his Romford HQ.

3 loc.cit.

Institutional Racism and Havering Council

Several years ago, there were disturbing allegations of Institutional Racism amongst officers of the Council. A report was commissioned to uncover the truth. The report was completed three years ago and it sustained those allegations. The Conservative Administration of Damian White rejected demands for publication. Ray Morgon, the Leader of the Opposition, demanded the report be published. A campaign began led by the Romford Recorder who put in a Freedom of Information request.

For three years the Council resisted that Freedom of Information request.

The Romford Recorder¹ has won a court case demanding publication of the report. The Council won’t publish and it continues to fight the Recorder. Institutional Racism is an insidious ‘Hate Crime’, which rots trust in the workplace and community.

“The council was ordered in August to disclose a 400-page dossier of evidence to the Romford Recorder within 42 days, after we won a legal action on behalf of our readers…Information Tribunal judges ruled that the council was not entitled to suppress the document as its contents were of overwhelming public interest.”² (my emphasis)

HRA’s response is to continue resistance by hiring a King’s Counsel for an appeal.

The appeal is lame. Firstly, it wants to protect other councils, which is a specious justification and a waste of Havering taxpayers’ money.

Secondly, they claim the document is “historic” and therefore misleading. It’s historic because the council have fought tooth and nail to prevent publication.

Thirdly, the document is inflammatory, which “….risks fracturing community cohesion in the borough at a time when the national temperature is heightened.”³ Really?

Assuming the Recorder has faithfully recorded the Chief Executive’s justifications for the appeal, its chances of success are slim, and very expensive.

Council officers oppose publication because they fear reputational damage. However, it is Conservative and HRA politicians who are preventing publication, not officers.

Questions:

1) Are any perpetrators still employed by Havering?

2) Was compensation paid to any victims?

3) Did the council demand No Disclosure Agreements from any employee in relation to the findings of this report?

4) Were any councillors named in the report?

Notes

1 Havering Council seeks appeal over racism report ruling | Romford Recorder

2 loc.cit.

3 loc.cit

Havering Council Meeting: 4th September 2024 (part two)

Library Closure Debate (Begins at 56 minutes)^1,2

This was the best debate in recent years. Thoughtful and insightful points were made in an ultra-positive environment. Great stuff.

Martin Goode (56mins) set the tone. Firstly, placing libraries in the community and then forensically analysing the financial actualité. A lot of the savings is staffing. However, Havering has a no redundancy policy so there is an over-statement of savings.

Two councillors³ explained the importance of libraries to their, and every body’s, childhood. Dilip Patel (1:25) quoted Woodford Green library as an example of creative regeneration. This set the scene for ‘thinking outside the box’, a point approvingly made by Ray Morgon (2:16) to Keith Prince’s (2:19) surprise. The consultation didn’t offer alternatives to closure.

Philip Ruck (1:31) favours morally correct decisions. James Glass (1:49) is refreshingly optimistic unlike HRA, which embraces ‘victimhood’. Chris Wilkins (1:22) exemplifies victimhood: he’s wedded to ‘Loans and Savings’. He’s oblivious to the £1.5m that a 1% council tax increase offers, an option “that dare not speak its name”.⁴

Graham Williamson (1:44) stunned councillors by saying that libraries are ‘subsidised’. They’re a public service, which might surprise him, as he implies they’re failing businesses. Gillian Ford was outraged that Prince wanted to conclude the debate even if it went on beyond 10:30 (2:00).⁵ He said HRA are led by officers. Council officers, as a group, have reductionist attitudes: ‘You want savings? Here they are!’

Four libraries might close to ‘save’ 0.55% of the deficit.

Best sarcasm: Philip Ruck

Best politics: Brian Eagling (1:28)

Absentee councillors: Nine, which is outrageous.

Notes

1 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times relate to this webcast

2 Motions.pdf (havering.gov.uk) For the wording of the motion and amendments

3 Mandy Anderson and Judith Holt made significant speeches on this point.

4 Havering Council Tax: Is It Too Low? – Politics in Havering

5 A close vote 25:21 casts doubt on this

Havering Council Meeting: 4th September 2024 (part one)

Question Time¹

Question Time is for councillors to quiz cabinet members. It’s limited to 45 minutes. Unlike parliament, where there’s no limit on questions, only 15 questions are allowed. Six more questions should have been posed because the time wasn’t used. Ray Morgon favours scrutiny, so more questions fits his agenda. This inexplicable rule needs revising.

Barry Mugglestone answered eight questions. His world-weary approach is understandable. Question 1: Can the Cabinet Member for Environment confirm that the option of paper visitor parking permits is still available in Havering? [Judith Holt: 19 mins]² The answer was, ‘Yes’, but he was more expansive. After the unpleasantness at the last Council Meeting being gracious was important.³

Mandy Anderson (38 mins) highlighted three unregistered Children’s Homes used by Lambeth and Hampshire Councils. Oscar Ford’s blandness pill grated. Mandy’s ward is Havering’s most deprived and is a ‘dumping ground’. Oscar couldn’t care less. Council’s officers are, “Keeping their eye on it.” If Upminster had three illegal Children’s Homes he’d care a great deal more.

Keith Prince’s question (46 mins) about CCTV was interesting until he promoted facial recognition systems. Neither he or Barry realise facial recognition is racially biased and flawed. Keith is a cheer-leader for HRA. Question 15 (49 mins) to Ray Morgon was classic: Do you agree with me that you’re great?⁴ Ray shyly agreed he was great.

Best humour: Gerry O’Sullivan’s constant mispronunciation of Martin Goode’s name.

Notes

1 Council Questions 4 September 2024.pdf (havering.gov.uk)

2 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times relate to this webcast

3 Havering’s Council Meeting 24th July 2024 (part one) – Politics in Havering

4 Not his ‘exact’ words but that’s what they added up to

Havering and the Loxford School Trust

Abbs Cross and Gaynes Academies are owned by Loxford Schools Trust, Ilford. Loxford school is ‘outstanding’. Their Leadership Team believe they can transfer their successful formula. They now own five secondary academies.¹

Academies are government funded businesses with Loxford receiving £50m.² The twelve person leadership team, earn between £100,000 and £250,000. (Their CEO earns £54,000 more than Havering’s chief executive.) Stellar salaries demand consistent stellar performance. Their principal challenge is under-achievement of Disadvantaged Students.³

The Gold Standard: Grade 5 GCSE in English and Mathematics

The national outcome for disadvantaged students is 25.2% Gold Standard successes. For non-disadvantaged students the national outcome is 45.2%. This huge gap must be bridged to be rated excellent. Loxford School is excellent. Their disadvantaged students achieved 56% for the Gold Standard. Loxford’s disadvantaged students beat the national outcome in both categories. An outstanding performance.

It’s a different story in Havering.

Abbs Cross Academy: 23% of their disadvantaged students achieved the Gold Standard.⁴

Gaynes Academy: 33% of their disadvantaged students achieved the Gold Standard.⁵

Neither come close to Loxford’s result. Nor do they come close to the national 45.2% for non-disadvantaged students. Loxford’s Havering schools haven’t closed the Attainment Gap.

Havering, in general, has significant problems with under-achievement by disadvantaged students. Only four schools out of 18 reach 45.2% with their disadvantaged students. Loxford massively exceeded the national outcome with their disadvantaged students.

Conclusion

Loxford Schools Trust have failed. Four of their six secondary academies are below the all-student Gold Standard. Tabor Academy is catastrophically below that standard. They should be humble and recognise their stunning success in inner-city Ilford hasn’t travelled well.

Addendum: Loxford’s other academies and their Gold Standard outcomes

Warren Academy

49% for disadvantaged students, which is above the national outcome for all students. Barking and Dagenham’s non-disadvantaged students achieved 54%. ⁶

Tabor Academy

15% for disadvantaged students. This is catastrophic and demands action from the *stellar* Leadership Team in Ilford. Essex’s non-disadvantaged students achieved 49%. ⁷

Cecil Jones Academy

25% for disadvantaged students, which is the national average. Southend’s non-disadvantaged students achieved a stunning 66%. ⁸

Notes

1 Governance Profiles – Loxford School Trust

2 LOXFORD 2023ACCSWIZ.cvw (loxfordtrust.s3.amazonaws.com) see p71

3 Key stage 4 performance, Academic year 2022/23 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk) Table 8 is an excellent summary

4 Results by pupil characteristics – Abbs Cross Academy and Arts College – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk) See also Havering’s GCSE Attainment Gap, 2023 – Politics in Havering

5 Results by pupil characteristics – Gaynes School – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

6 Results by pupil characteristics – The Warren School – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

7 Results by pupil characteristics – Tabor Academy – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

8 Results by pupil characteristics – Cecil Jones Academy – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK (compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk)

Havering’s 2024 General Election: The battlefield

The 2024 election produced a landslide victory for Labour but not in Havering. Surprisingly the Conservatives weren’t the beneficiaries of Labour relative ‘failure’. An analysis of the results shows the Reform Party spoiled the night for Labour and the Conservatives. Statistical clutter¹ has been deleted to leave the percentage vote for the three principal parties. (The aggregate results, if you want them, have been published by the council.²)

Beam Park

Labour 60.6%; Conservative 13.9%; Reform Party 13.7%

Cranham

Conservative 34%; Reform Party 29.1; Labour 26.7%

Elm Park

Labour 37.7%; Reform Party 27.4%; Conservatives 19.4%

Emerson Park

Conservatives 43.5%; Reform Party 26.1; Labour 21.3%

Gooshays

Labour 34%; Reform Party 28.9%; Conservatives 27.3%

Hacton

Conservative 33.1%; Reform Party 29.6; Labour 22.7%

Harold Wood

Conservative 29.8%; Labour 29%; Reform Party 28.5%

Havering-atte-Bower

Conservative 33%; Labour 31.1%; Reform Party 22.3%

Heaton

Labour 32.6%; Reform Party 28.4%; Conservative 25.9%

Hylands

Conservative 34.9%; Labour 30.4% Reform Party 21.6%

Marshalls Park

Conservative 40.5%; Labour 27.1%; Reform Party 20.2%

Mawneys

Conservative 37.1%; Labour 29.7% Reform Party 22.6%

Rainham

Labour 35.7%; Conservatives 27.6%; Reform Party 24.5%

Rush Green

Labour 35.5%; Conservatives 29.4%; Reform Party 22.2%

St. Albans

Labour 37.4%; Conservative 28%; Reform Party 21.9%

St Andrews

Conservative 32.7%; Reform Party 29%; Labour 26.6%

St Edwards

Labour 34.6%; Conservatives 34%; Reform Party 22.2%

South Hornchurch

Labour 39.9%; Reform Party 26.2%; Conservatives 21.5%

Squirrels Heath

Conservative 38.7%; Labour 29%; Reform Party 21.5%

Upminster

Conservatives 38.2%; Reform Party 27.5%; Labour 22.4%

Notes

1 https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/07/the-ultimate-2024-general-election-breakdown Many thanks to David A. for sending me this site

2 General Election 2024: Results | London Borough of Havering These are the overall results

Havering’s Council Meeting 24th July, 2024 (part two)

The principal activity of council meetings is debating Motions. These are free-wheeling discussions where any councillor can participate. Motions ought to be important and probing.¹ Motions presented to this meeting were, in general, an insult to the electorate.²

^{…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………}

The first motion by the Conservatives was:

A This council agrees to implement a pairing system for members, to ensure that serious illness does not impact the political balance of the Chamber.

Keith Prince (1 hour 31)³was abysmal. He literally hadn’t worked out the implications of his proposition. Keith Darvill (1:34) told him. Prince acknowledged he’d got it wrong. It was drivel.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The Conservative’s second motion was pivotal. The financial ‘reasons’ for library closures are flakey and legitimately contestable. Perfect territory for intelligent debating:

B Council calls upon Cabinet to maintain the operation of all local libraries, acknowledging the critical social impact of their potential closure, and to encourage the use of financial reserves to ensure their continued funding. (my emphasis)

Keith Prince (1:42) withdrew the motion, which is beyond belief. The Conservatives literally don’t know what an Opposition party should be doing, or, what constructive criticism is.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The Conservative’s third motion was inconsequential:

C Council agrees to amend the Constitution to allow for 2 follow-up questions during full council meetings.

Keith Prince (1:43) continued his poor form. Once more Keith Darvill dissected the motion. He gained support from Stephanie Nunn and Ray Morgon.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The final motion came from the Labour party:

D This Council adopts the Co-operative Party’s Charter Against Modern Slavery as shown on the attached.

Katharine Tumilty (1:55) made a very good speech about the horrors of modern-day slavery. Dilip Patel (2:08) shared his first-hand experience when he recounted his involvement in rescuing a young woman. Very moving and inspiring for everyone in the chamber. Barry Mugglestone (2:10) outlined his department’s intervention in illegal HMOs.

It was a long wait but councillors, at last, showed their best side.

Best speech: Katharine Tumilty

Notes

1 There are eight council meetings but there are no motions at Annual Council

2 SUPPLEMENTARY AGENDA 24th-Jul-2024 19.30 Council.pdf (havering.gov.uk) p11

3 Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times refer to this webcast

Havering’s Council Meeting 24th July 2024 (part one)

Ray Morgon’s first meeting since trashing the coalition with Labour leaves HRA alone – naked and unashamed. Controversial policies like the Data Centre in Upminster are now totally owned by HRA.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Question Time (began at 46 minutes)

Question Time is the Barry Mugglestone Show.¹Barry is a bit of a bruiser. He said unrectified service defects were the fault of ward councillors. If they’d worked harder informing him he’d have resolved problems immediately. Good knockabout stuff. Tim Ryan (1:06) substituting for David Taylor got the treatment. It was unfair but fun.

Paul Middleton was ambushed by Judith Holt (1:27). A straight-forward question about the upkeep of Upminster cemetery became emotionally fraught. She was asking about the maintenance of her family grave. Councillors can’t demand special treatment but Paul should have been gentler.

Some cabinet members were ill-prepared for supplementary questions. Paul McGeary, Natasha Summers and Graham Williamson disappointed.

Gerry O’Sullivan was absent and deputy-Mayor, Sue Ospreay, substituted and displayed her unique style. Calling Nisha Patel ‘My lovely’ (1:10) was a novelty, which we could have done without.

Oscar Ford (1:08) said Havering was helpless in answer to Keith Darvill about flooding at Brookside Academy. The council can’t do anything because it’s an Academy.

Best tactician: Barry Mugglestone

Councillor Absence

Twenty percent of councillors were absent. Cllrs Benham, Frost, O’Sullivan, Ruck, Taylor, White D., Walker, Wilkes, Williams and Wise

Note

1 Public reports pack 24th-Jul-2024 19.30 Council.pdf (havering.gov.uk) pp249ff The webcast is here Annotator Player (mediasite.com) All times relate to this webcast