Havering’s Cabinet Meeting, 5th February: Budget (part two)

“I believe in miracles….” Hot Chocolate (1975)¹

The meeting began with Chris Wilkins, the cabinet member for finance, reading a document which he didn’t appear to have written (1:26).² Very sensibly, HRA don’t use Chris as their main man during financial discussions.

The discussion was brutal.

Ray Morgon set his stall out. The government review of Havering’s finance is vital to his strategy. The Fair Funding Review (1:31) is the miracle which will stave off Havering’s financial catastrophe. The Chief Executive (1:46) said that he wouldn’t consider requesting a council tax increase beyond 4.99% because Havering’s problems weren’t caused by decision-making in Havering. This reflects HRA’s policy.

The director of Finance expressed caution. She was ‘very concerned’ about the long-term sustainability of Havering (1:34). Keith Darvill (1:32) probed forensically, discovering that the interest on the capitalisation programme hasn’t been paid. This means debt accelerates each year through the joys of compound interest. The director said that the conversation will be ‘very different’ in 2028 if nothing changes.

“…if you have debt, compounding of the interest you owe can make it increasingly difficult to pay off.”³

Capitalisation Funding for day-to-day expenditure is insanity.

The Chief Executive (1:31) said after his meeting with the minister there would be no change in government policy concerning debt repayments.

HRA is hoping the government will back down first and won’t enforce the debt. HRA is engaging in a form of “Can’t pay, Won’t pay.”⁴Havering is depending on safety in numbers. They’re hoping that along with the 18 other councils which are being buried alive in debt, they will have to be rescued.

Notes

1 The lyrics aren’t about local government finance. But are great fun. Read them. Relive the 70s! i believe in miracles hot chocolate lyrics – Search

2 Annotator Player All times refer to this webcast

3 The Power of Compound Interest: Calculations and Examples

4 This is a Marxist play, 1974, by the Italian Dario Fo which is a satire on consumer resistance to high prices. Can’t Pay? Won’t Pay! – Wikipedia

Andrew Carnegie loved libraries

Havering Cabinet, 5th February 2025: Budget

Gillian Ford (1minute),¹is Havering’s Maggie Thatcher. Her speech was a version of ‘There is no alternative’. (see addendum). Her conclusions are pure Maggie.

“Without these three [library] closures we cannot cover their costs, we place remaining libraries at risk, and we would not be delivering the improvement and transformation plan agreed at Full Council last July, in accordance with MHCLG’s requirements.”²

Being obvious nonsense, Keith Prince (20) piled in. He evoked shifty and evasive answers before the Chief Executive (23) conceded his point. Library closures are a political choice. Gillian (52) declared, “We have no alternative!” Maggie Rides Again.

The cabinet spent 51 minutes discussing £800K whilst simultaneously negotiating a £70m loan. Chris Wilkins said (1:27) that the gap could be £89m.³ This astonishing 27% variation on the Leader’s statement was treated with levity by Chris. Havering’s government borrowings are a minimum of £102m This is to pay for daily expenditure but not for tangible infrastructure benefits. The loans are a manoeuvre to avoid “…a massive increase in council tax beyond the standard 4.99 per cent.”⁴

Ray Morgon conveniently forgets the £102m are loans, which future Havering councils will have to pay.⁵ He has a heroic belief in government largesse where loans are written off. Is this prudent budget setting? Meanwhile he stands by the £1m free parking gift to his political heartlands in Hornchurch and Upminster.

Addendum: There is no alternative, Margaret Thatcher

“TINA (as characterized by explicit use of ‘there is no alternative’ and declarations of necessity, inevitability, and irrefutability of certain policies) can be considered a political strategy in both democratic and autocratic regimes. Its rhetoric allows politicians to reduce the scope of available policy choices, limiting the expectations of their electorate and avoiding the blame for bad, but ‘unescapable’ policies.” source There is no alternative – Wikipedia

Notes

1 All times refer to the webcast Annotator Player

2 loc.cit. 18 minutes Gillian used MHCLG throughout her speech without saying it’s the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. Gillian is claiming the Ministry has demanded library closures, which is nonsense. Councillor Taylor says, “….the saving is likely to be around just £161k.” This is after decommissioning costs are factored into the equation. REVEALED: Actual Library Closure Costs Gillian responded Deputy Leader Responds to Library Closure Criticism By Romford Councillor. – The Havering Daily

4 loc.cit. Wilkins speech

4 Havering hosts crime summit, Cabinet agrees next year’s budget, we celebrate LGBT+ History Month – 12hedonic@gmail.com – Gmail [CP1]

5 Presumably not by HRA’s current leadership.

[CP1]

Andrew Rosindell’s Question to Keir Starmer, 29th January 2025

Andrew says,¹

“…the population of this country will rise to 72.5 million by 2032….which is unsustainable.” (my emphasis).

In 1945 the UK’s population was 48 million. When Andrew was born, in 1966, it was 54.6 million.² People living in 1945 couldn’t have comprehended the 2024 British population, which is 44% higher than it was.

Why is another three million unsustainable? “Turkey has…(3,181,222‑ individuals) [immigrants] who have been granted temporary protection status.” Most are from Syria and are the majority of a 4.6 million immigrant population. Turkey is poorer than Britain but accepts its responsibilities.

Keir Starmer’s answer was interesting “…we will bring those numbers down.” Why? British politicians are obliged to be anti-immigrant. Positive, heartwarming stories are buried in anti-immigrant bile.

Rishi Sunak’s parents were born in east Africa. Nassar Hussain, Essex and England cricket captain, was born in India. In literature, T S Eliot was American and became a British Nobel prize winner. Marks and Spencer’s shopping chain is an immigrant success story. And this is a tiny sample of immigrants in Britain building a better wealthier country.^4,5Both the question and answer are disappointing. Asylum seekers should be accepted. Economic immigrants are critical to the well-being of Britain because they’re motivated to succeed. They should be welcomed.

Addendum: Andrew Rosindell’s question with Keir Starmer’s answer

Rosindell The Prime Minister should know that my Romford constituents are shocked, angry and dismayed by the suggestion by the Office for National Statistics that the population of this country will rise to 72.5 million by 2032—that is 500,000 people a year, which is unsustainable. Who voted for that, and will the Government do something to ensure that the population of this country is sustainable going forward? There is no mandate for such a colossal increase in immigration to this country.

Starmer I think the hon. Gentleman should talk to his party leader. Net migration went through the roof under the previous Government—by nearly 1 million; it quadrupled—and who was cheering it on? The Leader of the Opposition. The hon. Gentleman’s constituents are right to be concerned about the loss of control by the previous Government. We are taking control; we will bring those numbers down. But the record is absolutely clear, and it sits right there on the Opposition Benches.Engagements – Hansard – UK Parliament

Addendum: West Ham United

The WHU squad, 2024-5 has 15 nationalities represented. Only ten of the 27 man squad are English. West Ham United FC Squad Information 2024/2025 | Premier League

Notes

1 Engagements – Hansard – UK Parliament PMQ’s 29^th January 2025

2 https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/1966/ In1966 it was 54.6 million Demographics of the United Kingdom – Wikipedia

3 number of immigrants in trukey – Search

4 Grooming gangs and ethnicity: What does the evidence say? – BBC News Focusing on criminals is a demonisation concealing the facts of the case.

5 Boris Johnson was born in the USA and could have stood for president. Nigel Farage had a German wife and his children presumably have dual nationality.

Havering’s Cabinet, 22nd January 2025

The Conservatives have their third leader since 2022. Michael White is a veteran from when the electorate elected Conservatives.

Barry Mugglestone (one minute)¹ introduced the borough’s ‘Food Disposal’ policy.² He had a blizzard of statistics and costings, which were meant to ‘shock and awe’. David Taylor (4minutes) had prepared searching questions. He relished asking them and created a classy debate.

Food Disposal is government policy and Havering is new to it. David wondered if officers had done comparative research to avoid reinventing the wheel. The answer: not much.

Havering’s two year contract for non-obligatory caddy bin liners is £1million. Havering is bankrupt. Barry (9 minutes) wanted to withdraw his proposal but was ignored. Gillian Ford (17 minutes) said bin liners should be provided and stopped later on. Good luck with that!

Natasha Summers (48 minutes) wants to reduce homelessness costs.³ The policy will save £1.8m over ten years. Meanwhile bin liners will cost £1m over two years. Converting a Basildon office building will provide 34 units. Havering residents will be shipped out to Basildon for their housing needs.

Michael White (50 minutes) showed political Leadership. He pursued the implications of the policy for residents and Basildon. He said homeless people are shuffled around and Havering was a victim of inner-London disposal policies. The savings are negligible and it is papering over the cracks.

These discussions implied cabinet members don’t critique their papers. They should be more than spokespersons for officers.

Notes

1 Annotator Player All timings refer to this webcast

1 5.0 amended Cabinet – Food Waste 22.01.2025 1.pdf

3 8.0 Cabinet Paper – Office to residential conversion to accommodate homeless families at Eastgate Ho.pdf

Council Meeting, 15th January 2025 (part one)

Attendance

Nine councillors (16%) were absent. Absenteeism like this is a *Red Flag* demanding action.¹ Item 7b gave permission to a councillor be absent because of serious illness and that is right and proper. But what of the other eight?

Question Time²

Keith Prince (13 and 22 minutes)³ asked two questions about libraries. Gillian Ford didn’t show leadership in either answer. Keith wondered what additional work Gillian had done to garner community support and extend the commercial side of the library estate. She hadn’t done anything. *Proactive* is forbidden territory for her.

Dilip Patel (45 minutes) highlighted the tragic case of an 85 years old lady who’d been without heating for a month. Paul McGeary mumbled. His gravedigger voice buried this annoying triviality and the moment passed.

Webcast

The quality is poor and worsening. Gillian’s answer to Keith’s second question featured the brooding figure of Barry Mugglestone. At 37 minutes Natasha Summers disappeared altogether being replaced by Luke Phimister’s name. David Taylor’s question wasn’t filmed at all and Jane Keane’s question was truncated. Computer King Paul Middleton should solve this shaming problem. It makes the council look incompetent.

Notes

1 Councillors attendance summary, 25 July 2024 – 17 January 2025 | London Borough of Havering Six (11%) have 50%, or fewer, attendances and that doesn’t include the member who is seriously ill.

2 Council Questions 15 January 2025.pdf

3 Timings relate to the webcast Annotator Player

Havering’s Secondary Academies: Their Progress 8 Rankings, 2024

The government’s performance analysis¹ creates a ‘level playing field’ for comparisons. The government’s Progress 8score is their tool of analysis. This is,

“The academic progress that pupils make from the end of key stage 2 to the end of key stage 4. This is based on 8 qualifications.”

Progress 8 predicts GCSE results based on a statistical analysis of KS2. KS2 results are an effective tool, which generates GCSE profiles for a school’s intake. The government uses five categories -Well Above Average, Above Average, Average, Below Average and Well Below Average.

A high Progress 8 score isn’t correlated with GCSE results. It is based on ‘Added Value’ that a school gives to their students. For example, Sacred Heart of Mary has a higher ranking than Coopers Coburn despite their GCSE results being similar. The higher ranking of Sacred Heart is because their 2019 intake had lower KS2 outcomes than Coopers. This implies Sacred Heart add more ‘value’ than Coopers.

Progress 8 doesn’t predict what any particular student will do. Students in every category of school will under, or over, achieve. Progress 8 is a statement about a school’s performance in general.

Well Above Average²

Sacred Heart of Mary, Campion and Harris Academy Rainham

Above Average

Royal Liberty, Coopers Coburn, Frances Bardsley, Hall Mead, Redden Court and Hornchurch High

Average

Gaynes, St Edward’s and Drapers’

Below Average

Abbs Cross, Emerson Park, Marshalls Park, Brittons and Sanders Draper

Well Below Average

Bower Park

Notes

Search results for “Havering” – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK
This list is in ranking order. Therefore, Sacred Heart is the highest-ranking school in the category ‘Well Above Average’. Likewise Royal Liberty, Gaynes and Abbs Cross in their categories

Havering and Redbridge’s Secondary Schools: A Comparison, 2024

The government’s performance analysis^1,2 creates a ‘level playing field’ for comparisons. The government’s Progress 8 score is their tool of analysis. This is,

“The academic progress that pupils make from the end of key stage 2 to the end of key stage 4. This is based on 8 qualifications.”

Progress 8 predicts GCSE results based on a statistical analysis of KS2. KS2 results are an effective tool and schools are measured against these expected outcomes. The government’s judgement is expressed in five categories -Well Above Average, Above Average, Average, Below Average and Well Below Average.

High achieving children at KS2 should, all things being equal, do well at GCSE. Havering’s Sacred Heart of Mary achieved 73.7% Grade 5+ English and Maths and is ranked Well Above Average. Coopers Coburn achieved 73.2% and is ranked Above Average. The implication is that Sacred Heart added more educational value than Coopers Coburn. (see Addendum)

Woodford County High has wonderful GCSE results. 98.9% achieved Grade 5+ English and Maths but isn’t Redbridge’s top ranking school. Seven Kings is ranked higher. Their Grade 5+ English and Maths score is 83%. Woodford’s intake has superior KS2 grades to Seven Kings and this is reflected in their lower Progress 8 score.

Progress 8: The Scorecard for the 36 Schools

Well Above Average Havering: 3 Redbridge: 9

Above Average Havering: 6 Redbridge: 5

Average Havering: 3 Redbridge: 3

Below Average Havering: 5 Redbridge: 1

Well Below Average Havering: 1 Redbridge: 0

Addendum: Named Schools in Ranking Order

Seven Kings 1/36

Woodford County High 6/36

Sacred Heart of Mary 8/36

Coopers Coburn 14/36

Addendum: Barking and Dagenham Outperforms Havering

There are eleven secondary schools in B&D. Five are rated Well Above Average. Havering has 18 schools with three at that level. This is a further illustration of the woeful quality of Havering’s secondary sector – all of whom are academies which, allegedly, improve standards.

Notes

1 For Havering Search results for “Havering” – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK and for Redbridge Search results for “Redbridge” – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK

2 Havering and Redbridge: A Tale of Two Boroughs – Politics in Havering This discusses these issues five years ago. Havering’s schools have since improved.

Havering’s Institutional Racism Report

The suppressed report has been published three years late.¹It’s virtually unreadable.

The all-important pay gap is analysed, “Work needed to be done to assess if there is an ethnic pay gap and what that means.”² Career progression is poor because, “The senior levels of the organisation are not a very diverse representation hence why these views may be held.”³ (my emphasis) (see addendum)

The report reveals their racial biases, which they would probably deny having. Institutional Racism occurs when decision-makers have biases,

“….which, covertly or overtly, resides in the policies, procedures, operations and culture of public or private institutions – reinforcing individual prejudices and being reinforced by them in turn.”⁴

Institutional racism emerges from homogenous groups enforcing toxic biases. BAME candidates are judged prior to interview; their in-service performance is derided and complaints are unrecognised as legitimate.

Objective Area 2 7:1, says,

“The political and executive leadership have publically (sic) committed to reducing inequality, fostering good relations and challenging discrimination.”⁵

These aspirations are inspiring but have cabinet members and senior management the humility to implement them? Humility because they must reflect deep and hard about their actual racial preferences. Can leopards change their spots?

The Romford Recorder worked tirelessly for publication and the council worked equally hard to prevent publication. When it was published the Recorder said,

“Havering released a redacted and unenlightening version of the investigation, containing none of the allegations the LGA had referenced.”⁶ ‘Unenlightening’ is code for saying they believe it’s been censored.

Havering’s CEO says the report doesn’t reflect the Council today. Let’s hope his assessment isn’t a self-serving delusion.

Addendum: Diversity

Cabinet: There are nine cabinet members all of whom are white, elderly or middle-aged. Seven of them are men.

Executive Directors: There are four directors, including the CEO.⁷ All four are white with two women. There is no information about their qualifications or where they were awarded.

Notes

1 READI Review – Havering self-assessment

2 p16 NB Pages aren’t numbered and page numbers come from my page counter

3 p17

4 What is institutional racism? – Institute of Race Relations

5 READI Review – Havering self-assessment p332

6 Why the Romford Recorder fought to uncover racism dossier | Romford Recorder

7 Executive Leadership Team | London Borough of Havering

Havering’s Council Meeting, 20th November 2024 (part two)

Militant trade unionists in the 1970s dragged meetings out to exasperate ‘ordinary’ members who left long before the end of meetings. Extremist motions were then agreed ‘democratically’. Keith Prince has watched the videos with enthusiasm.

Motion B (see addendum one) implies huge expenditure and Havering is bankrupt. Keith Darvill (2:07)¹ said ‘every park is different’, with the main difference being some parks can’t be economically fenced and gated. He cited Upminster Park. Barry Mugglestone (2:04) missed the point at length. The proposer Tim Ryan (2:00) was sincerely misguided. And that was the debate.

Enter Comrade Keith Prince (2:00) and (2:17).

Keith likes procedural points. His speciality is nit-picking. Unlike militant trade unionists, he can’t add two hours to a meeting. Whatever extremist motions he’d dreamt up – the Peoples’ Republic of Romford? – were unheard. Keith was posturing against the clock and a legal officer enjoying the limelight.

Keith had support from Michael White (2:20). Michael mocked the fact that the HRA demanded that their amendment be presented to council. HRA don’t realise THEY ARE the Administration and they don’t need motions presented – to themselves. The HRA motion was piffle.

Jane Keane (2:14) was outraged that the motion to discuss the safety of women was binned (see addendum two). Soothing words were spoken but there was a nasty taste in the mouth.

Best Moment: Dilip Patel’s (15) anecdote about former councillor Pam Craig

Addendum One: Conservative Motion B

Chamber recognises Havering has reached unacceptable levels of antisocial behaviour in our parks. Council calls on the Administration to produce a detailed plan to reduce levels of antisocial behaviour and to resume the overnight locking of parks, and to present this proposal at the meeting of Council.²

Addendum Two: Labour Motion C

This Council condemns violence against women and children and recognises the particular challenges of finding emergency refuge accommodation for mothers with boys over the age of 12 years old. This Council calls upon the Administration to work with refuge organisations to find solutions to the lack of available refuge places.²

Notes

1 Annotator Player All times refer to this webcast

2 Motions (Public Pack)SUPPLEMENTARY AGENDA Agenda Supplement for Council, 20/11/2024 19:30