Havering’s 55 councillors are divided into six groups. Their leaders are white, elderly men,1 socially conservative and apolitical. Local politicians aren’t politicians, they are managers. George Osborne killed Local Government. This makes it difficult to know who to vote for or, even whether to vote at all. All that politicians can say is that they are, ‘On your side’, whatever that means.
So, what do voters do?
- Vote as you’ve always voted;
- Vote for someone who looks well meaning;
- Vote for a novelty;
- Vote against the government or;
- Don’t vote.
Ageing politicians, and their cliques, are the inevitable result of anti-politics.
Political Leaders
Ray Morgon (25 councillors) Ray is leader of HRA and the council. He’s been a councillor for 23 years. He leads a minority administration. HRA isn’t a political party. It is an umbrella organisation. Its signature policy is 30 minutes of free parking time in Hornchurch and Upminster, which costs about £1m pa.
Michael White (16) Michael is leader of the Conservatives. He’s been a councillor for 30+ years. The Conservatives have diminished after numerous defections. If they are unlucky they could suffer a 2014 event and get wiped out.2 Their signature policy is being ‘good managers’.
Keith Darvill (8) Keith is leader of the Labour party. He’s been a councillor for 23 years. They were part of the HRA coalition until Ray went solo. They rely on option one with people voting traditionally. Surprisingly they don’t have a signature policy.
Martin Goode (3) Martin is leader of the East Havering RAs. He’s been a councillor for seven years. His party is a pressure group in the traditional RA way. Utterly negative, nit-picking and without any policies apart from at-the-margins critiques.
John Tyler (2) John is leader of the Residents’ Association Independent Group. He’s been a councillor for seven years. He’s a ‘True Believer’ in the RA message. ‘No Politics, Focus on the Ward’ and leads a pressure group. He’s less effective than Martin.
Keith Prince (1) Keith is leader of Reform. He’s been a councillor for 35 years.3 Reform is the ‘novelty’ party for 2026. Using 2014 as a guide, and Farage’s charisma, he should do better than UKIP. His signature policy is a secret.
The 2026 Election: Politicians like winning but they might prefer to lose in 2026. Why? Havering is in a bad place and the winner will have to make very tough decisions, which they will probably hate.4
Notes
1 ‘Elderly’ = 65+
2 Havering Local Election Results 22 May 2014
3 Unusually he’s a GLA member and has been a councillor in Redbridge. He’s the most experienced councillor in the chamber alongside Michael White.
4 Winner’s curse – Wikipedia This is when a person convinces themselves of the value of something and win BUT they have mistaken the true value and end up worse than they were before.
Politics in Havering 
A civic duty to vote, but no one to vote for, hence anger becoming despair and a falling turnout. I suppose the only real option is to positively abstain by voting by casting a spoiled ballot paper, UNLESS a candidate/group declares in favour of taking legal action against the biased funding formulas.
This is the signature policy that makes a difference as without it all candidates/groups de facto belong to the same UNIPARTY rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, hence the ease with which so many have changed sides, without holding by-elections.
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Anything that creates clear blue water between the opposing parties would be good.
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Though I suspect that thoughtful Conservatives would bite your arm off if you offered them a disaster merely on the scale of 2014. Flicking through those results, it’s striking how close it came to being much worse. A few more candidates in the wards they won, and a few more votes in their very near-misses and the UKIP group could have been significantly bigger.
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Novelty parties always have a problem recruiting as they don’t have a network of supporters. But yes they should have done better in 2014. I wonder if Reform might have peaked too early and Farage is turning toxic. An interesting six months ahead.
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very true
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Happy New Year
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